Who did Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters vote for?
darklordoftech:
Did they mostly vote for Obama, or did a significant amount vote for McCain?
un:
I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.
Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.
TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.
darklordoftech:
Quote from: un on March 03, 2021, 12:42:47 PM
I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.
Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.
TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.
Do you think 9/11 permanently made them Republicans, or do you think think they just weren’t willing to vote for a “Kenyan Muslim”?
Mr. Smith:
Look to New Mexico for the answers perhaps?
un:
Quote from: darklordoftech on March 03, 2021, 07:59:36 PM
Quote from: un on March 03, 2021, 12:42:47 PM
I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.
Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.
TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.
Do you think 9/11 permanently made them Republicans, or do you think think they just weren’t willing to vote for a “Kenyan Muslim”?
It's possible, but at the same time, many would have also been willing to vote for Hillary in 2008 over McCain, so it's difficult to say.
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