Who did Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters vote for?

[darklordoftech]

Did they mostly vote for Obama, or did a significant amount vote for McCain?

[un]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

[darklordoftech]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

Do you think 9/11 permanently made them Republicans, or do you think think they just weren’t willing to vote for a “Kenyan Muslim”?

[Mr. Smith]

Look to New Mexico for the answers perhaps?

[un]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

Do you think 9/11 permanently made them Republicans, or do you think think they just weren’t willing to vote for a “Kenyan Muslim”?

It's possible, but at the same time, many would have also been willing to vote for Hillary in 2008 over McCain, so it's difficult to say.

[Chips]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

The Smith County example can be somewhat misleading, because it was Gore's home county. Without that factor it may well have voted Democratic by a lot less.

[Calthrina950]

As un noted above, a majority of these voters went for Bush. Moreover, a large number of Gore 2000-Kerry 2004 voters in Appalachia and in the Deep South, and even in parts of the Lower Midwest, also went for McCain, as Obama did worse than Kerry in Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

[MATTROSE94]

A majority for McCain with the exception of New England, the West Coast, and maybe parts of the Midwest like Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Today most of these voters are split between Joe Biden and Donald Trump if I had to guess.

[Smash255]

Both my parents fit under this category.  They both voted for Obama twice, Clinton and Biden.

[President Johnson]

A decent number of them in Southern states probably never voted for a Democrat at the presidential level again. Especially Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In the south and Appalachia: McCain


Outside it : Obama

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

The exception is the New York area; including some suburbs in Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut where Bush made gains after 9/11 which were thoroughly reversed in 2008 thanks to the housing crisis and financial collapse.

[Vosem]

Largely McCain, outside of the urban mid-Atlantic area where there was a certain population of people who had voted Democratic all their lives, crossed over for Bush '04, and then returned to voting Democratic for the remainder of their lives afterwards. (A politician who fit this description being Michael Bloomberg, and the sort of people who did so being the sort of people who'd be his enthusiastic supporters).

[Calthrina950]

I think more probably voted McCain. Many counties that voted for Gore in 2000 and flipped to Bush in 2004 never came back to the Democratic Party, particularly in states in the white South (Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma). Smith County, Tennessee is a good example of this, Gore won the county by 33 points in 2000, Kerry only won it by 4 in 2004, and then McCain won it by 20 points, suggesting that those voters are not returning to the Democrats.

Most of Obama's gains came from suburbs, the Sun Belt, and the Midwest. Let's take Wisconsin for example. Both Gore and Kerry barely won the state, suggesting that not a lot of change really occurred. In 2008 however, Obama swept the state, suggesting a large shift to the Democrats from people who voted for Bush twice, all over the state. Let's use another state, Colorado. Bush won the state in 2000 by 8, and in 2004 by 4. You could already see some moderate Republican suburban shift in 2004, but that came out in full force in 2008, when Obama won Colorado by 9 points. The point is that most of Obama gains didn't come from winning back Democrats who voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, most of it came from high turnout and winning over two time Bush voters.

 TL;DR: They mostly went to McCain, as most of Obama's gains did not come from winning over Gore 2000-Bush 2004 voters.

The Smith County example can be somewhat misleading, because it was Gore's home county. Without that factor it may well have voted Democratic by a lot less.

And in fact, Smith County was one of only three counties in Tennessee to swing to Gore in 2000. The others were Davidson and Shelby Counties.

[UWS]

For McCain

[Cyrusman]

Both my parents fit under this category.  They both voted for Obama twice, Clinton and Biden.

Why did they vote Bush in 2004?

[WalterWhite]

They probably voted for McCain. Most Gore-Bush voters were Southern Democrats who like George Bush for his social and foreign policy positions. These people would have thrown their support behind another neocon (like McCain) over Obama.