Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[mileslunn]

Last budget was 188-154 in votes so have some margin of error, not a lot but some.  But it may mean more controversial ideas like road tolls get ditched.  I think road tolls are a good idea but if Spain is anything like North America, I suspect won't be politically popular.  Perhaps though maybe should move to vignette system whereby putting tolls at the borders and charge anyone who enters Spain.

Other tax increases seem mostly focused on upper income which will anger them, but I am guessing most of those impacted probably vote PP anyways.  Only question is not sure if that will satisfy EU as rich tend to have more options in changing how they earn their income, say through pass through corporations, as dividends, or capital gains to pay a lower rate so higher rates could push more to switch how they earn income.  There is also risk of re-locating.  That being said even if government raises top rates another 2%, it would still in most of country be below both France and Portugal for top rates while higher than Germany although Madrid would be below Germany (off course if Greens win and get their plan through, German top rates will go up) so some would leave but probably have to raise by more before enough leave for it to cost government money. 

Bigger issue is if deficits don't improve, it will then require either tax hikes on middle class or spending cuts and as we've seen elsewhere in Europe, parties on right can get away with latter as you expect that from them, but for parties on left it is fatal.  PASOK in Greece good example of this.  But at least EU probably won't start coming down hard until 2023 budget so more might jeopardize re-election, not next year's budget.  Off course if Greens win in Germany and heaven forbid LePen wins in France, expect both countries to push hard for looser fiscal rules and usually whatever those two want EU agrees to.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Speaking of Catalonia, a repeat election is now likely. After three months of squabbling, bridges between ERC and Junts seem to have been burned down for good. For how it all came to this point, it’s a bit complicated:

After the election in February, ERC sought to fulfill its pledge of forming a pro-independence government. It quickly sealed down an agreement with the CUP to support Pere Aragonés’ investiture as regional president and it also made a gesture towards Junts by electing their leader Laura Borràs as Speaker of the Catalan Parliament, while at the same time rejecting any possibility of an understanding with the PSC.

Thus, ERC started negotiations with Junts with the aim of forming a coalition between them. In terms of policy and cabinet posts they seemed to go smoothly. The main hurdle, and apparently the straw that broke the camel’s back, was that Junts demanded that ERC, Junts and CUP deputies in the Congress vote the same way in all matters, effectively stopping ERC from reaching agreements with the national government.

ERC refused to surrender the autonomy of its parliamentary group in Madrid, and chances of a coalition agreement started to dwindle. ERC tried to pressure Junts by calling an investiture vote for Aragonés in late March, which failed due to Junts abstaining, starting the countdown towards new elections. After more rounds of fruitless coalition negotiations, ERC gave up on a joint government and sought to form a minority one made up of ERC ministers only.

Junts initially accepted to tolerate an ERC minority government, but it threw a poisoned chalice to the Republicans, saying that they would only provide the minimum amount of ‘yes’ votes necessary for an investiture vote to succeed (four, while their other deputies abstained). The trick here was that the number of votes they offered was only enough for ERC to outvote the unionists if it managed to gather support of not only the CUP, but also ECP, which had been ignored in negotiations until now.

Theoretically, this last option could have worked out, since ECP’s only condition to support an ERC executive is that Junts doesn’t form part of it. However, Junts changed its mind again today and decided that a minority government was unacceptable and that it wanted a coalition after all. The thing is, ERC categorically ruled out a coalition after getting tired of Junts’ bullsh**t and won’t go back to square one. Which is why elections are likely now.

If the impasse isn’t broken within the next two weeks, Catalans will go to the polls in Summer.

[Velasco]

If the impasse isn’t broken within the next two weeks, Catalans will go to the polls in Summer.

I'd say ERC attempts to be "pragmatic" rather than "moderate" and I'm not a big fan either, but Junts folks seem to me the true masters of trolling. Not even the main experts in the Catalan conundrum dare to make outcome predictions at this moment

[Zinneke]

those well known Chavistas at the OCDE are now calling out Ayuso's Reaganite pipe dream as a tax haven :

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/macroeconomia/2021/05/11/609a9f86fc6c83f75f8b45a3.html


Spain is going turn itself into a city state where the capital acts as a vortex to the rest of its communities, while it preaches a hard stance towards Catalonia and Euzkadi.

The political implications of this aren't as good for the PP as they think.

[Former President tack50]

those well known Chavistas at the OCDE are now calling out Ayuso's Reaganite pipe dream as a tax haven :

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/macroeconomia/2021/05/11/609a9f86fc6c83f75f8b45a3.html


Spain is going turn itself into a city state where the capital acts as a vortex to the rest of its communities, while it preaches a hard stance towards Catalonia and Euzkadi.

The political implications of this aren't as good for the PP as they think.

Map of Spanish regions, circa 2050:

[Velasco]

those well known Chavistas at the OCDE are now calling out Ayuso's Reaganite pipe dream as a tax haven :

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/macroeconomia/2021/05/11/609a9f86fc6c83f75f8b45a3.html


Spain is going turn itself into a city state where the capital acts as a vortex to the rest of its communities, while it preaches a hard stance towards Catalonia and Euzkadi.

The political implications of this aren't as good for the PP as they think.

The famous Ayuso quote says "Madrid is Spain within Spain", which is a wonderful idea. The problem is that Spain outside Madrid 🇪🇸 is in the process of becoming an empty shell (or a Madrid's dependency, as the map above suggests)

It's relevant the OECD warning and the mid term implications are serious, not only for the PP but especially for Spain's territorial cohesion

[Former President tack50]

Well, apparently yesterday the minister of Social Security announced a government proposal for increasing the Social Security contributions from self-employed workers (autónomos).

Currently the system is a bit complicated but I think most just pay a flat contribution of 286€ a month. (there is a reduced quota for the first 3 years).

The new proposal will have a transitional period, and would not be fully implemented until 2032 (which is way, wayy too long for an implementation period imo); but the new proposed brackets would be as follows



I can't find an exact and coherent distribution of the distribution of self employed profits, but I think that depending on definition it is either on the 17000€ range or 23000€ range

Either way, this is a reduction for people in the lower end of the scale (mostly part time people; so like private tutors and what not); but an increase for at least 50% of self-employed workers.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/economia/20210512/escriva-plantea-nuevas-cuotas-autonomos-11718858

Whether this reform goes through or not, who knows (I definitely don't think it will go through if PP gets back into power, which with such a long transitional period is likely)

[Velasco]

As you probably know, Pablo Iglesias retired from politics on May 4 election night, after having resigned his post of Deputy PM to contest Madrid regional elections. The co-founder of Podemos has shaped Spanish politics since the Podemos surge in the 2014 EP elections and tomorrow isthe 10th anniversary of the May 15* protests that originated the indignados movement in 2011, which spirit the Iglesias party embodied (at least in the first stage). Do you want to know what issue related to Iglesias and his departure filled the headlines? Well, Pablo Iglesias cut his trademark ponytail, both for the sake of convenience and to symbolize he enters a new life

Historian Julián Casanovas wrote the following in social networks:

"Some had long hairs, others were bald. Dictators,  revolutionaires,  democrats, of every kind and colour. I have read hundreds of articles and chronicles about them, but it never made into the news they cut their hair.  It's the dismantling of analysis and information"

* i always mix up 11M (Madrid bombings) and 15M (indignados).  Apologies

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Two new polls came out of Catalonia over the weekend. They suggest that if a second election were to be held, PSC, ERC and PP would be the main beneficiaries, with C's and PDECAT as the losers:

GAD3 for La Vanguardia:

PSC: 36 seats (+3), 25.4% (+2,4)
ERC: 35 seats (+2), 22.2% (+0,9)
Junts: 33 seats (+1), 20.8% (+0,7)
PP: 8 seats (+5), 7.0% (+3,2)
Vox: 8 seats (-3), 6.3% (-1,4)
CUP: 8 seats (-1), 6.2% (-0,5)
ECP: 7 seats (-1), 6.4% (-0,5)
C's: 0 seats (-6), 2.3% (-3,3)
PDECAT: 0 seats (=), 0.8% (-1,9)

Turnout: 56% (+4,7)

Pro-independence: 76 seats (+2), 50% (-0,8)
Pro-union: 52 seats (-1), 41% (+0,9)
Ambiguous: 7 seats (-1), 6.4% (-0,5)

Left-wing: 86 seats (+3), 60.2% (+2,3)
Right-wing: 16 seats (-4), 16.4% (-3,4)
Catch-all: 33 seats (+1), 20.8% (+0,7)

Possible majorities:
PSC+ERC: 71 seats
PSC+ERC+ECP: 78 seats
ERC+Junts: 68 seats
ERC+Junts+CUP: 76 seats
ERC+Junts+CUP+ECP: 83 seats


GESOP for El Periódico

PSC: 37/38 seats (+4/+5), 26.2% (+3,2)
ERC: 34/36 seats (+1/+3), 22.5% (+1,2)
Junts: 25/27 seats (-7/-5), 17.0% (-3,1)
Vox: 10/11 seats (-1/+0), 7.7% (+0,0)
CUP: 9/10 seats (+0/+1), 7.5% (+0,8)
ECP: 8/9 seats (+0/+1), 6.9% (+0.0)
PP: 5/6 seats (+2/+3), 4.9% (+1,1)
C's: 3/4 seats (-3/-2), 4.0% (-1,6)
PDECAT: 0 seats (=), 1.3% (-1,4)

Turnout: N/A

Pro-independence: 68/73 seats (-6/-1), 48.3% (-2,5)
Pro-union: 55/59 seats (+2/+6), 42.8% (+2,7)
Ambiguos: 8/9 seats (+0/+1), 6.9% (+0,0)

Left-wing: 88/93 seats (+5/+10), 63.1% (+5,2)
Right-wing: 18/21 seats (-2/+1), 17.9% (-1,9)
Catch-all: 25/27 seats (-7/-5), 17.0% (-3,1)

Possible majorities:
PSC+ERC: 71/74 seats
PSC+ERC+ECP: 79/83 seats
ERC+Junts+CUP: 68/73 seats
ERC+Junts+CUP+ECP: 77/83 seats

[Mike88]

Catalonia: At the last minute, ERC and Junts finally agreed in forming a coalition. However, I don't understand why did ERC gave more ministerial posts to Junts rather than to them, as Junts is the junior partner. This could backfire in the near future. We'll see.

[Velasco]

It's nice getting home and read in the news we have a government in Catalonia

ERC gets the following portfolios:

▪︎ Presidency (premier)
• Labour and Enterprises
• Equality
• Education
• interior
• Culture
• Climate Action

Junts is rewarded with:

• Deputy premier
• Economy and Treasury
• Health
• Digital Policies
• Foreign Affairs and Transparency
• Social Rights
• Justice
• Research and Universities

Apparently the CUP was instrumental in this last minute agreement. I don't even try to understand why Junts gets more portfolios. This is Catalonia and Convergents always win, even when they have changed their name and pretend to have broken the links to their past. More than once ERC people reached the conclusion that Junts folks are untrustworthy and still cave in

[Mike88]

Apparently the CUP was instrumental in this last minute agreement. I don't even try to understand why Junts gets more portfolios. This is Catalonia and Convergents always win, even when they have changed their name and pretend to have broken the links to their past. More than once ERC people reached the conclusion that Junts folks are untrustworthy and still cave in

Exactly, all of this is very strange not to mention that the most important portfolios are all given to Junts. Like I said in my post above, this government will probably not be a stable one.

[Former President tack50]

Catalonia: At the last minute, ERC and Junts finally agreed in forming a coalition. However, I don't understand why did ERC gave more ministerial posts to Junts rather than to them, as Junts is the junior partner. This could backfire in the near future. We'll see.

It is worth noting that back in the previous government, ERC held more cabinet positions than JxCat (7 for ERC compared to 6 for JxCat). ERC also held many important positions in the previous government like Economics, Education and Healthcare.

I think the rationale is somewhere along the lines of since the presidency is the most powerful and visible office, we want more cabinet officials to counteract that

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Worth mentioning that Junts gets control of the EU recovery fund thanks to the Economy post. Anyways, regardless of this deal, instability is unlikely to go away as long as the Bibi of Girona remains the gravity center of Catalan politics. The result is a couple more years of constant squabbling between ERC and Junts and continuing deadlock regarding independence.

[Mike88]

...Bibi of Girona...

LMAO. Priceless.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

A migratory crisis is unfolding in Ceuta, one of the two Spanish Autonomous Cities which are located on the African continent. Eight thousand migrants and counting have crossed the Moroccan border in the last couple of days, with the army being forced to step in to try and control a situation which has overwhelmed local authorities.

The root of this sudden chaos lies in last April, when the 72-year old Polisario Front leader and President of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (Western Sahara), Brahim Gali, was admitted as a patient in a Logroño hospital in order to receive treatment for Covid-19. This was possible thanks to a secret agreement between the Algerian and Spanish governments, after Germany allegedly refused to take him in.

Morocco was obviously less than pleased with Gali’s presence in Spain, and warned that there would be consequences for it. In the meantime, Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya (PSOE) defended the government’s decision on humanitarian grounds.

The consequences that Morocco warned of were the relaxation of immigration controls on the Spanish-Moroccan border, which has directly caused the current crisis. There is even imagery of Moroccan gendarmery opening the gates for migrants on the Moroccan side of the border. These migrants later swim around the border fence to reach Spanish territory.

The number of border crossings is unprecedented with dramatic scenes of migrants suffering from hypothermia and entire families with children stranded on beaches coming out of Ceuta. The scale of the situation is so far-reaching that, in addition to the army, Pedro Sánchez and the Interior Minister have traveled to the city to engage in crisis management.

After being rescued and, if necessary, receiving basic medical care from the Red Cross and the military, most adult immigrants are returned to Morocco at the spot, only minors being allowed to stay for now. So far, 4.000 have been expelled. This is technically illegal, but the authorities claim that they are going back voluntarily.

At home, a demonstration has been called at the Moroccan embassy in Madrid to protest the country’s actions. Vox has stated that Spain faces an outright invasion, even a second Green March, blaming the government for “surrendering” the frontier; while the left is calling out Morocco for attempting to hold the country hostage over Brahim Gali’s stay in Logroño.

The crisis is unlikely to abide until the diplomatic standoff between Morocco and Spain is resolved. The Moroccan ambassador insisted on the notion that actions have consequences, while the European Union has pledged full support to Spain to maintain order in “Europe’s southern border”.

[Just the facts]

Nothing like weaponizing your own people to show what a caring ruler you are.

[Skye]

Results for the Madrid election have been certified:

Turnout: 3,667,806 (71.7%)

PP                     1,631,608   44.76%   65
Más Madrid         619,215      16.99%   24
PSOE                  612,622      16.80%    24
VOX                    333,403       9.15%     13
Unidas Podemos   263,871       7.24%     10
Ciudadanos          130,237       3.57%     F

http://www.bocm.es/boletin/CM_Orden_BOCM/2021/05/20/BOCM-20210520-42.PDF

[Zinneke]

Nothing like weaponizing your own people to show what a caring ruler you are.

A lot of the border crossers are not Morroccan.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Relations between Morocco and Spain are at a low point right now. The Moroccan ambassador has left Spain and says she won't come back as long as Brahim Ghali remains on Spanish soil, while Defence Minister Margarita Robles (PSOE) gave a defiant TV interview in which she accused the Moroccan government of blackmail.

In Ceuta, the flow of migrants has finally been stopped after Moroccan authorities reclosed the border. Over 6.000 have been returned to the African country, according to the government. 200 unaccompanied minors who already found themselves in Ceutan facilities will be reallocated to other Autonomous Communities, in order to make space for the 850 new minors that have arrived over the past few days and are entitled to stay in the country.

As for domestic political developments regarding the crisis, the PP is blaming UP for causing the diplomatic rift with Morocco, pointing to the party's continued support for Western Sahara's self-determination. Also, there are reports that there was division within the cabinet at the time of deliberating whether to let Brahim Ghali stay in Logroño, with Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska allegedly opposing the Foreign Ministry's decision.

[H. Ross Peron]

Nothing like weaponizing your own people to show what a caring ruler you are.

A lot of the border crossers are not Morroccan.

Where are the other migrants coming from? It somewhat reminds me of the controversy over the Shah being allowed in the US for medical treatment in 1979. Do the conservatives in Spain oppose support for Western Sahara? Wouldn't that leave them vulnerable to charges of acceding to Moroccan demands?

[Velasco]

I've been busy and feel a bit tired, so and I haven't followed the events in detail. I think this crisis in Ceuta is originated by the desire of Morocco to exert pressure on Spain and the EU, in order they recognize the sovereignty of that country in Western Sahara. One of the last decisions made by Trump before departing was recognizing Moroccan rule. There are international connections involving US, Israel and the slaughter in Gaza. Moroccan authorities took advantage of the latter. These connections are explained in the article linked below, so those fluent in Spanish can read if they please

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20210520/7467578/escalada-palestinos-marruecos-rabat-manifestaciones-protestas-mohamed-gaza-hamas-israel-netanyahu.amp.html

[Former President tack50]

Today Spain's supreme court announced their non-binding decision on whether the Catalan prisoners should be pardoned or not (which is a requirement to issue a pardon under Spain's rules). The answer, as we all expected was a very easy no because they have not expressed an ounce of regret and in fact they pledge they would do it again if they had the chance, so juridically it is a very easy case.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4708958/0/el-tribunal-supremo-se-opone-a-la-concesion-del-indulto-a-los-12-condenados-causa-proces/?autoref=true

However it is still a possibility that Sánchez will issue a pardon regardless, possibly as some sort of deal with Catalan secessionists.

Today a new poll dropped about pardons. They have 63% support in Catalonia, but only 22% nationwide.



Personally I think a pardon would be a bad idea because of the reason the courts said (they haven't expressed any regret whatsoever). However it is not an issue that ranks all that high in my list of priorities even when it certainly does for other people.

(sidenote: I want to know who the hell are the 10% of Vox supporters in favour of a pardon lmao)

[Zinneke]

Today Spain's supreme court announced their non-binding decision on whether the Catalan prisoners should be pardoned or not (which is a requirement to issue a pardon under Spain's rules). The answer, as we all expected was a very easy no because they have not expressed an ounce of regret and in fact they pledge they would do it again if they had the chance, so juridically it is a very easy case.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4708958/0/el-tribunal-supremo-se-opone-a-la-concesion-del-indulto-a-los-12-condenados-causa-proces/?autoref=true

However it is still a possibility that Sánchez will issue a pardon regardless, possibly as some sort of deal with Catalan secessionists.

Today a new poll dropped about pardons. They have 63% support in Catalonia, but only 22% nationwide.



Personally I think a pardon would be a bad idea because of the reason the courts said (they haven't expressed any regret whatsoever). However it is not an issue that ranks all that high in my list of priorities even when it certainly does for other people.

(sidenote: I want to know who the hell are the 10% of Vox supporters in favour of a pardon lmao)

Libertarians who think government shouldn't be locking up people for organising the sliding of paper ballots into boxes?

[Skye]

Love to see a higher % of VOX voters supporting a pardon than that of PP voters.

Joking aside, I'd really love to see the % of PSOE voters against the pardon that doesn't include PSC voters.