Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

The seemingly obvious answer would be for the ERC to ask for support from the PSC, but no idea if that type of government is even a feasible option anymore.

The alternative, other than snap elections, indeed is a ERC-PSC-En Comú coalition, but, yeah, I don't kown if there's will for it, specially in PSC, who in a possible snap election could emerge with a stronger share and reach the Generalitat Presidency.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Regional president Aragonés (ERC), has announced that the cabinet posts vacated by Junts ministers will be replaced by ERC ones and that his party intends to carry on governing in a single-party minority administration.

This no-deals, no-elections outcome grants ERC the flexibility to pass legislation with both the pro-independence parties, Junts and CUP, and the left-wing national parties, PSC and ECP; ERC being able to choose whichever partners are more expedient at any given moment.

In fact, Joan Tardá, party grandee and former ERC parliamentary spokesperson in the Congress of Deputies, has already suggested that Aragonés's government could now approve this year's budget with support from the socialists.

The apparent new situation is, of course, beneficial for the stability of the PSOE-UP coalition in Madrid; thanks to the regional government relying to a large extent on PSC support just as the national government relies to a large extent on ERC support.

It will be interesting to see what consequences the establishment of cross-bloc unionist-separatist agreements and the open rift on the latter side have for the future of the zombie Catalan independence process.

[Logical]

Behold, Cs new logo. Political party or software developer?

[Mike88]

Behold, Cs new logo. Political party or software developer?

It seems that Ciudadanos is still downloading.

Anyway, some updates from Spain:

- Castilla y León is in the middle of a dispute between PP and Vox surrounding Abortion. Vox, PP's coalition partner in the region, wants to force pregnant women to hear the fetus heart and make a 4D ultrasound. This is creating a big dispute between the two parties, with PP refusing to accept this proposal and Vox threatening to tear up the coalition. The PSOE-UP minority government is also threatening Vox with the Courts. There's the possibility that Castilla y León may go the polls, again, next May;

- This Saturday, a big rally against Pedro Sanchéz government was held in Madrid:

https://twitter.com/Cibeles21E/status/1616767841973190656

The rally, which had the support of Vox, also had the presence of C's leader Inés Arrimadas. Few PP national leaders were in the rally, even though PP leader Núñez Feijóo highlighted that the protest was serene and that it defended the Constitution.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Motion of no confidence

In reaction to the government betraying Spain, selling the nation off to ETA, torning the Constitution into shreds etc. (in other words, negotiating with ERC the abrogation of the crime of sedition and the reform of embezzlement in exchange for continued parliamentary support), Vox has decided to table a constructive vote of no confidence against Pedro Sánchez in the near future. Much like the one tabled in 2020 by the same party, it is doomed to fail and will purely be an exercise in mediocre theatrics (although PP and C's will probably back it this time), the only surprising thing being the candidate put forward.

Two years after feigning concern for old people by comparing the supposed amount of state subsidies the average underage immigrant and your granny receive, Vox has decided to abuse a poor old man by making him the motion's candidate. The rotting corpse in question is Ramón Tamames, a veteran from the Punic Wars (I'm joking of course, I mean from the drafting of the Constitution. No, not the 1812 one; the 1978 one) and prominent PCE member during the Spanish transition to democracy who has since drifted towards the "center" (canned laughter). He is now apparently willing to become Vox's kamikaze bomber against the government in this hopeless parliamentary maneuver, playing the role of symbol (or rather relic) of the decent left that was destroyed by "Dr." Evil in 2017.

The agony of Ciudadanos continues

Speaking of things that will die sooner rather than later, the cringe-pseudorganization known as Ciudadanos just entered the latest and funniest phase of its decomposition after its only remaining prominent office holder in the country, Madrid deputy mayor Begoña Villacís, recently held a totally innocuous meeting with PP General Coordinator Elías Bendodo in which she totally didn't ask him to let her defect to the party.

It was like that scene in Titanic where Rose is put in a lifeboat, except in this case instead of jumping back willingly while the lifeboat was being lowered from the Ciudadanos, Rosacís was thrown back on board of the ship by Jack; because Jack, played by Isabel Díaz Ayuso, said a couple days ago that the Madrid PP had already taken in enough C's people during the last regional election.

So in the end, Villacís held a press conference saying that she met with Bendodo to talk about the weather and that it is a very positive thing that she, as Deputy Mayor, has such good talking relations with all parties. In the meantime, Ciudadanos had to swallow this comedy act because she's their only hope to hold one or two councilors in Madrid in the coming local election (spoiler alert: they'll be wiped out anyways, as in the rest of the country).

Government f**k-up

The government parties can also boast of their own share of nonsense with the so-called "Only Yes means Yes" law, a sexual consent reform law which was passed last year. Podemos ministers, who incredibly sit at the cabinet table instead of working as dressed-up child entertainers at La Puerta del Sol, drafted this law in such an incompetent fashion that it ended up having the charming effect of reducing prison sentences for all kinds of sex offenders; one by one in a slow-moving drip, drip, drip which the right-wing press has kindly and thoroughly reported on on a daily basis ever since.

After first accusing all judges of being misogynistic fascists who are deliberately misinterpreting the law to take down the government, and then changing script to claim that the law was introduced with a less punitive approach to criminal justice in mind (the complete opposite of what was argued when it was first proposed), and also enduring criticism from some figures on the left; PSOE and UP have finally admitted that perhaps the law did have some flaws, but that at the same time nobody could have ever predicted its consequences (in spite of everyone from the most amateurish legal scholar on Twitter to the highest judiciary body in Spain doing so).

Now, when it is already too late to revert most of the damage, the PSOE is preparing to amend the law. However, an idiot with a microphone can't keep his mouth shut in spite of having nominally retired from politics, and is threatening the PSOE with "consequences" if the Podemos-controlled Equality Ministry's signature legislation is changed with support from the opposition instead of Podemos (the party in which he supposedly doesn't have any role in, although it is incidentally and without any trace of nepotism led by his girlfriend and his girlfriend's university friend).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

How on Earth is it possible to make an error of that magnitude? Dear God.

[Mike88]

Vox sure looks desperate for proposing a motion of censorship in an election year. This seems more like a "stunt" to embarrass PP and Feijóo, but a ridiculous one. Polls in Madrid still put Villacís with some share and seats, but after this "fling" with PP, not sure if those numbers will hold up for her.

The "solo sí es sí" fiasco is just... ridiculous. I honestly have difficulty commenting on it because it's such a serious issue and it was handled like... I'm speechless. It's just ridiculous and sad.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The PSOE has decided to go ahead with its reform of the "Yes means Yes" law without reaching an agreement with their coalition partners. This did not happen because UP keeps insisting on the revised law maintaining the "notion of consent" enshrined by their legislation, whatever that means (of course, consent in sexual relations has been an established concept in Spanish law since erm, well, Roman times; so "enshrining consent" has always been meaningless drivel). If UP doesn't vote for it or at least abstains, PP support will become necessary.

Here's a handy visual guide made by El País that shows how sentencing restrictions for sexual aggression will change with the PSOE's amendment:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

- Red bar: minimum and maximum sentence duration in years for each type under PSOE amendment.
- Green bar: minimum and maximum sentence duration in years for each type under Yes means Yes law.
- Grey bar: minimum and maximum sentence duration in years for each type under the old Criminal Code.

- Showcased variants of the crime (in the same order as in the picture): simple sexual aggression, aggravated sexual aggression, simple sexual aggression with penetration, aggravated sexual aggression with penetration, sexual aggression with penetration to minors under 16 and sexual aggression with penetration and special violence to minors under 16.

In other news, Isabel Díaz Ayuso commemorated the Holocaust by comparing Nazi Germany to Spain under Pedro Sánchez, and the ex-communist mummy Vox wants to put up against Pedro Sánchez gave an interview the other day. When asked about whether his age was an impediment in case of the motion of no confidence succeeding, he pointed to the good health of his 95-year old mentor Juan Velarde, who died hours after the interview.

[Mike88]

In other news, Isabel Díaz Ayuso commemorated the Holocaust by comparing Nazi Germany to Spain under Pedro Sánchez, and the ex-communist mummy Vox wants to put up against Pedro Sánchez gave an interview the other day. When asked about whether his age was an impediment in case of the motion of no confidence succeeding, he pointed to the good health of his 95-year old mentor Juan Velarde, who died hours after the interview.

Karma is a b***h.

Also, C's trainwreck continues:

- Earlier today, it was reported that Begoña Villacís, C's councillor in Madrid and deputy mayor, would not be the party's candidate in the local elections because she hadn't gather enough endorsements;

- But, a few hours later, it was announced she would indeed be the party's candidate because... there was literally no one else to run.

[Mike88]

Motion of no confidence

In reaction to the government betraying Spain, selling the nation off to ETA, torning the Constitution into shreds etc. (in other words, negotiating with ERC the abrogation of the crime of sedition and the reform of embezzlement in exchange for continued parliamentary support), Vox has decided to table a constructive vote of no confidence against Pedro Sánchez in the near future. Much like the one tabled in 2020 by the same party, it is doomed to fail and will purely be an exercise in mediocre theatrics (although PP and C's will probably back it this time), the only surprising thing being the candidate put forward.

Two years after feigning concern for old people by comparing the supposed amount of state subsidies the average underage immigrant and your granny receive, Vox has decided to abuse a poor old man by making him the motion's candidate. The rotting corpse in question is Ramón Tamames, a veteran from the Punic Wars (I'm joking of course, I mean from the drafting of the Constitution. No, not the 1812 one; the 1978 one) and prominent PCE member during the Spanish transition to democracy who has since drifted towards the "center" (canned laughter). He is now apparently willing to become Vox's kamikaze bomber against the government in this hopeless parliamentary maneuver, playing the role of symbol (or rather relic) of the decent left that was destroyed by "Dr." Evil in 2017.
(...)

Vox "cuckoo bananas" motion of no confidence will go ahead:

Santiago Abascal, Vox leader, has presented this Monday afternoon the party's motion of no confidence against the Sanchéz government. The party's candidate for the motion is Ramón Tamames, 89 years old, and Abascal is confident that PP will, in the end, vote in favour of the motion. He added that if the motion passes, he will propose general elections for May 28th, the same day of the local and regional elections.

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has already stated that the party will not support Vox's motion, adding that the candidate itself has little or no respect. The party, however, hasn't specify, yet, if it will abstain or vote against.

[Mike88]

Ciudadanos poster for the local elections in May:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1635999781406294017

Begoña Villacís kicks off the pre-campaign with a giant canvas that reads 'Madrid D.C.' along with a message in which she invites the people of Madrid to write to her team via Whatsapp.

"Shall we meet?"

Madrid D.C.? Does that mean Madrid Después de Ciudadanos?

[MRCVzla]

Apart of the Villacís/Cs stunt in the attempt to not get below 5% in Madrid city. The other publicity stunt in get attention it's the upcoming (2nd) Vox' censorship motion, to happen next week (Tuesday 14th in the morning to end on Wednesday 15th) with 89 years old-economist with communist background Ramón Tamames, of course will fail like last time as only have the core support of the 52 Vox MPs. Apart the independent candidate (who only agreement with the Abascal party is get Sánchez -and Podemos- out ASAP, despite Tamames actually sorta respect Sánchez, and remarks the leftist-federalist mantra of "Spain' Nation of Nations"), the other difference is PP going to vote Abstain, just also to not see this motion as a victory of Sánchez government.

The coalition goverment is not doing well and still has their constant public frictions, last week they approved PSOE' proposal to reform the "Only Yes is Yes" Law (with PP support) as UP voting against and going separate ways at the March 8 feminist march. This week in parliamentary commission, the proposal to reform the Citizen Security Law (the so-called "Ley Mordaza" approved by Rajoy government in 2015) was rejected, UP voted in favor but the "regular partners" ERC and EH Bildu voted against as the Since the proposal maintained the use of rubber bullets to repress protests (as occurred in several pro-independence protests in Catalonia) or the so-called "hot returns" of migrants (on the borders with Morocco, a considerable defeat as it is one of the main goals of the Sánchez administration.

Local and regional elections are in May 28th, probably a lot of focus will be in some Autonomous Communities currently hold by PSOE but likely to gain for PP with or without Vox support (Valencian Community, Balearic Islands, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha...), Navarre is also interesting with the UPN/PP split -and the latter capting MPs Sayas and Adanero to their lists, PP as sole in Navarre has a weak party structure-, Cantabria with their almost octogenarian regionalist president Revilla seeking reelection again (or be unseated by PP/right) or the battle for the Barcelona mayorship (Colau seeking 3rd term), in Madrid Ayuso (at regional level) and Almeida (at city level) have a likely guaranteed reelection (and better without needing Vox support as happened in the 2021 snap election) as well with a safe PP reelection López Miras in Murcia, in Aragón also to watch the perfomance of the "Empty Spain" platform Teruel Existe expanded now as Aragón Existe, and as well wait and see the whole Ciudadanos debacle adding more nails to their coffin (with the final one later this year)...

Meanwhile Canary Islands is other attention focus, but for a alleged corruption case by a former PSOE Canarian MP called "Mediator Case" or "Tito Berni" (nickname of the former MP involved in the arc), supposedly "Berni" with a mediator favored shady business and payed partys at night clubs with public funds (?) (as far i know and resume here, expect other poster to develop futher in this or other stories).

[MRCVzla]

Vox/Tamames' Censorship motion failed as expected after 2 days of debates at Parliament:
Yes: 53
No: 201
Abstentions: 91
Not present: 4
Vacant seat: 1

The "extra vote" apart of the 52 Vox MPs was from an ex Cs MP (Pablo Cambronero, from the right-wing of the party and very anti-Sánchez). PP and their electoral allies (the 2 MPs from Navarre and the Foro Asturias one) abstained to not give and "oxygen balloon" to Sánchez government.

In political news, Yolanda Díaz' Sumar election platform will be formally presented on April 2, and will now if Podemos finally joins the project (they want to be a main role in the coalition and an open primary to determinate the lists)

[Mike88]

Deputy PM Yolanda Díaz presents her candidacy for the General elections, Sumar+, but divisions between her and Podemos are "haunting" the announcement:

https://twitter.com/rtvenoticias/status/1642501678661357570

Yolanda Díaz launches her candidacy: "I want to be the first female president of my country, the first female president of Spain"

"I want to be the first female president of my country," says the leader of Sumar, who has presented the guidelines for a new "bill of rights" for the next decade, surrounded by a dozen political forces, but without Podemos.

Yolanda Díaz has made the leap this Sunday as a candidate for the presidency of the Government. “Today I am going to take a step forward, I want to be the first female president of Spain. Because it is the time of women, because we women want to be the protagonists of history ”, the leader of Sumar announced in a speech in which she recognized that she was “tired of guardianships ”. After more than two years of waiting, those that separate her announcement from the appointment by Pablo Iglesias as successor, and nine months after beginning her tour of Spain to "listen" to the public, the vice president presented the program lines this afternoon of his project, defined as a new "bill of rights" and a democratic, economic and social "contract" for the Spain of the "next decade".

In front of a crowded sports center in the heart of Madrid -with more than 3,000 people inside and another 2,000 who followed the act through external screens, according to the organization-, Díaz has officially assumed the challenge before the next general election and puts herself like this in front of the electoral space to the left of the PSOE, still with many doubts in the air. The main one, the fit of Podemos in the future candidacy. For the moment, the same party that appointed her 24 months ago has decided to be absent from the photo in front of the support of more than a dozen organizations that supported the vice president on Sunday.
(...)

[Mike88]

Tensions between Sumar and Podemos continue as both sides aren't talking, and Podemos is warning Díaz about the consequences of ignoring Podemos and dividing the leftwing vote. The first polls after the launch of Sumar are starting to be published and they are showing a divided leftwing vote, while the rightwing seems to be benefiting by the splits on the left:

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo newspaper, 2 scenario poll:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645339975951556610

NC Report for La Razon newspaper:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645307054171516928

Sociométrica for El Español newspaper:
https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1645043456820015104

Local elections are to held in a month and a half, 28 May 2023.

[Oryxslayer]

The first polls after the launch of Sumar are starting to be published and they are showing a divided leftwing vote, while the rightwing seems to be benefiting by the splits on the left:

It has gone under the radar over here, since this thread is rather quiet, but PP + Vox have actually been in potential majority range for quite a while. So I doubt a split left has dramatically changed that arithmetic, other than perhaps denying the both of them seats in some of the smaller constituencies.

[Logical]

Podemos will cry, scream and drag their feet until the end but the reality of the electoral system and pressure from PSOE and leftist organisations will eventually force them to run together.

[Mike88]

The first polls after the launch of Sumar are starting to be published and they are showing a divided leftwing vote, while the rightwing seems to be benefiting by the splits on the left:

It has gone under the radar over here, since this thread is rather quiet, but PP + Vox have actually been in potential majority range for quite a while. So I doubt a split left has dramatically changed that arithmetic, other than perhaps denying the both of them seats in some of the smaller constituencies.

I try to update this thread when ever I can, even though Spain is basically non existent in the news in my country. Yes, PP+Vox are holding on in the majority zone for some time now, although it's not clear how that majority would actually work. From what I've been reading from Spanish newspaper, PP is actually lowering expectations regarding the local elections as polls don't show a strong coalescence of rightwing voters in PP, which could complicate things for government formations after the elections.

A split left, specially if PSOE falls to the levels these polls are suggesting, could benefit the rightwing mainly in those smaller constituencies, and Spain has a lot of them. We'll see what happens in the local elections.

Podemos will cry, scream and drag their feet until the end but the reality of the electoral system and pressure from PSOE and leftist organisations will eventually force them to run together.

Probably. But, Podemos as we know it would die, just like C's. It's interesting to see that the two parties that literally "broke" the old Spanish political system after 2015, are slowly disappearing.

[MRCVzla]

And apart of the Podemos/Sumar internal war, many topics and public debates are happening in Spain, the ongoing "Yes is Yes" reform, the block at the Justice renovation, the Public Health crisis (mainly in Madrid) and now the debate at maternal surrogacy (forbidden) after a major celebrity admitted used this method to have... a niece of their dead son. And the Catalonia issue can be revived at any moment, one of the Junts rebel MEPs returned quickly to Barcelona, got arrested but went free, and Borras (speaker of the Parlament) got invicted in a corruption case.

Oh, and a minor government reschuffle happened after 2 of PSOE ministers will going to be candidates in the upcoming May 28 local elections.

And a general election is not happening until December. Sánchez is going to milk to the max their turn at the EU presidency and in dates would the election normally happen (October-November) the Cortes they have to still open due to Princess Leonor' turning 18 at swearing the Constitution before going to military school.

So there will be weeks and weeks of PSOE vs. PP, PSOE vs. Podemos and Podemos vs. Sumar infights.

[Mike88]

The "agony" of Podemos continues:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1647491877736706051

6 seats...

[Mike88]

In a month, 28 May, local elections and 14 regional elections will be held. A quick summary of the current state of the main local and regional races:

Local elections, main cities:

- Madrid: PP is set to win the most votes this time around, but a majority of its own is still in doubt;

- Barcelona: Xavier Trias, Junts candidate, could return to his old job as Mayor of Barcelona (2011-15). He's currently leading the polls and Colau could be forced out of office;

- Valencia: PP is also expected to become the largest party, but it's unclear if they will have the votes to win back the city as polls show a close race between PP-Vox and Compromís-PSPV;

- Seville: Too close to call. PSOE and PP are neck and neck in the polls and the outcome is completely open;

- Zaragoza: PP is set, again, to become the largest party but a majority is shaky. Polls suggest that it's much more likely the PP to retain control of the city then to lose it, but it could be by a narrow margin;

- Vigo: Well, another coronation for Abel Caballero;

Regional elections:

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

- Valencia: Too close to call. PP is basically certain to become the largest party, but the PSPV-Compromís-UP alliance is basically tied with PP-Vox;

- Aragon: Spain's "Ohio" is also too close to call. PP is ahead of PSOE in the polls, but a majority is complicated. Teruel Existe could become the kingmaker;

- Extremadura: This race has tightened a lot lately although PSOE still has an edge. However, it seems certain that the Socialists will lose their majority;

- Castilla–La Mancha: Another one too close to call. PSOE leads PP by a narrow margin, but a PP-Vox alliance could steal this region from the PSOE, which currently has a majority;

- Canary Islands: PSOE has an edge here and it's likely to retain the government of the islands. However, a CC-PP alliance is "hitting on the heels" of the PSOE-NC-UP alliance;

- Baleares: PP is set to become the largest party, but a majority is in doubt. El Pi, a regional liberal party, could become the kingmaker at the end of the day;

- Asturias: PSOE is certain to retain control of the region, even though PP is surging in the latest polls;

So, a lot of close races to watch.

[Skye]

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

Not true, whether Podemos is shut out of the Assembly or not is still an open question.

[Mike88]

- Madrid: Another Ayuso landslide with the only doubt being if she will get a majority of her own or not;

Not true, whether Podemos is shut out of the Assembly or not is still an open question.

Well, if Podemos is booted out of the Assembly, than she will definitely have her majority.

[Oryxslayer]

So the C's to VOX and PP swing is old news by now, but can someone more in the know explain TxB? A cursory glace around says it's specifically anti-Comu.

[Mike88]

So the C's to VOX and PP swing is old news by now, but can someone more in the know explain TxB? A cursory glace around says it's specifically anti-Comu.

It's a Junts (JxCat) led coalition, which has as candidate former mayor Xavier Trias.