Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Former President tack50]

Well given the distribution of turnout, with turnout up inland and stagnant on the coast, there are 3 possibilities imo:

1) The left doing surprisingly well, with the traditional rural left wing base unexpectedly turning out while the sat out 2018
2) Big migration of traditionall left wing rural voters from PSOE to PP, particularly among the old
3) The "irrelevant" option, where turnout is completely divorced from the actual results (an example of this is Catalonia 2017, where turnout rose more in unionist areas, but it was because of the secessionist minority turning out there)

In any case as always I would not read much into turnout reports other than "turnout will be higher than 2018" and posibly "turnout will be higher than expected"

[Mike88]

Exactly, turnout could say a lot, but at the same time nothing. Vox is also gaining votes in the elderly, right? These voters normally voted left, PSOE or IU. Or is Vox's surge more aligned with younger/middle age voters?

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm has now stalled: 44.52%, minus 1.95% compared with 2018.

All provinces have, at 6pm, a lower turnout compared with 2018. Jaén and Cordoba are the only provinces where turnout is just very, very slightly bellow 2018.

[Mike88]

RTVE live feed:

[Mike88]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

[jaichind]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

[Mike88]

Projections:

TVE-GAD3:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582794460446722

Sociamétrica:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582730090356738

Data10:
https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1538582467661242377

[Mike88]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

Only TVE is saying this, but these polls are not real "exit polls" but rather tracking polls in the last few days, I believe. We'll have to wait for the results.

Nonetheless, a massive win for PP.

[jaichind]

TVE projection: PP wins an absolute majority.

What? How can this be ?

Only TVE is saying this, but these poll are not real "exit polls" but rather tracking polls in the last few days, I believe. We'll have to wait for the results.

Nonetheless, a massive win for PP.

Yeah, looking at exit polls I see how.  Significant underperformance of VOX which I mentally ruled out.

[Mike88]

Few votes counted so far, just 1,173.

[Mike88]

Very early still, just 3.02% counted:

38.8% PP, 49 seats (+23)
29.3% PSOE, 36 (-3)
14.1% Vox, 17 (+5)
  6.9% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.3% AA, 2 (new)
  2.7% C's, 0 (-21)

[Mike88]

15% of the votes counted. PP at 52 seats, PSOE at 35. The conservatives lead in all provinces.

[Mike88]

30.91% counted:

40.8% PP, 53 seats (+27)
26.4% PSOE, 33 (nc)
13.6% Vox, 15 (+3)
  7.8% PorA, 6 (new)
  4.7% AA, 2 (new)
  3.0% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.7% Others, 0 (nc)

54.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

History is being made:

Seville: (35.03% counted)

36.7% PP, 8 seats
30.5% PSOE, 6
10.8% Vox, 2
  8.8% PorA, 1
  6.2% AA, 1
  3.3% C's, 0

[Mike88]

With 44.67% counted, PP reaches the 55 seats minimum for a majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm not sure if Feijoo will be a good prime minister or a bad prime minister, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he does not become prime minister. What a night for him.

[Mike88]

I'm not sure if Feijoo will be a good prime minister or a bad prime minister, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he does not become prime minister. What a night for him.

PP needed to have a strong result in order to "kick" Vox off the radar and start to coalesce the rightwing vote in them. Vox whole strategy is that PP cannot govern without them, but after tonight and if the results trend continue, that strategy suffers a huge blow.

[Mike88]

68.62% counted:

42.1% PP, 56 (+30)
25.0% PSOE, 32 (-1)
13.4% Vox, 14 (+2)
  7.8% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.7% AA, 2 (new)
  3.2% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.8% Others, 0 (nc)

56.6% Turnout

[S019]

I suppose this may have been the best outcome we could hope for, the polls were consistently awful for the left leading up to the election, so PP not having to rely on VOX is probably the best that could be hoped for. It's truly a shame that this is the best that could be hoped for in a region where the left was very strong not all that long ago.

[Mike88]

Results by municipality:

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2022-06-19/quien-va-ganando-en-las-elecciones-de-andalucia-municipio-a-municipio_3443457/

A blue "tsunami":
https://twitter.com/elconfidencial/status/1538611524645822464

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the maps from Eldiario and uh, something insane I've noticed is that the pro-right trend is much, much stronger in rural areas than in the cities. Most of the provincial capitals are seeing very small right wing swings, but the rural areas are easily seeing swings of +15% for the right.

In fact overall, other than in Huelva province, the rural areas seem to be basically just as conservative as the cities (maaybe they are still a couple points left wing, but not by much, if at all)

I suppose something to ponder if you believe in #globaltrends

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the result as a whole, it's basically "everyone but PP loses".

PP gets an overall majority and a huge mandate. Idk to what extent it will transfer to Feijoo nationally, but they are the clear winners of the election.

PSOE goes down slightly. However of the losers, they are arguably the smallest loser.

Vox is one of the bigger losers as they are barely go up in a very favourable region. This might just be a small setback or it might be "the beginning of the end" for their surge

The 2 parties "to the left of PSOE" have a hard read. AA does get in but it's a horrible result that barely gives them any room to grow. On the internal fights within that space I suppose the thesis of Yolanda Díaz get reinforced and that unity for that space is an absolute must, with her winning the internal fight. Overall it's a bad result for said space though.

Finally Cs doesn't get in and continues their fall into irrelevance. Idk if the party can be saved at this point, but if it survives, it will barely have anything. It's hard for me to imagine anything more than a single seat for them

[Former President tack50]

Apparently I live in a country now where the Castillian right wing heartland of Castille-Leon is progressive while the landless peasants of Andalucia are hardline conservatives.

The result for the right is better in Andalucia than even in Ayuso's landslide in Madrid!

[Velasco]

96% counted

PP 43 0% (57 seats)
PSOE  24.2% (31)
VOX 13.5% (14)
PorA 7.7% (5)
AA 4.6% 2 seats
Cs 3.3% (-)
PACMA 1.0% (-)

Turnout 58%

Impressive performance of "quote]Juanma", who built his personage and ran his campaign in the mold of Feijóo (not Ayuso)

I'm not sure if Feijoo will be a good prime minister or a bad prime minister, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he does not become prime minister. What a night for him.

PP needed to have a strong result in order to "kick" Vox off the radar and start to coalesce the rightwing vote in them. Vox whole strategy is that PP cannot govern without them, but after tonight and if the results trend continue, that strategy suffers a huge blow.

Pretty much. It's hard to think that Feijóo will loose general elections next year. I doubt Feijóo will be a good PM (the magnitude of the upcoming crises is enormous) and I'm not sure if he will govern Spain with or without Vox. The PP's performance in Andalusia is impressive, vut absolute majority is much more unlikely in general elections. I guess thePP's goal will be to get a result strong enough to govern in its own (maybe the PSOE could be forced to abstain,  in order to bypass Vox).

The left and the PSOE-UP coalition government are weakened by this result. PSOE is losing voters in its right flank to the PP, while Yolanda Díaz will have to fight an upholl battle to revert leftwing demobilization and the disintegration of her political space. The survival of this coalition government can be considered a miracle, given the extremely adverse context and despite several unforced errors. Possibly one of the main failures of the government is the inabilitt to sell its achievements, which are not negligible. But the context is very adverse, both externally and internally, while apparently there's no plan to revert the situation.  Next autumn will be hard in Spand worldwide. We are witnessing the end of a model and a world order, while we can't even imagine whateill come next. Fascism and reactionary forces rise in these times of systemic crises and uncertainty. I don't know the solutions, but it's clear the fear of fascism foes not work anymore. I'd say the best way to tackle reactionarism is being proactive and proposing alternatives

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Looking at the maps from Eldiario and uh, something insane I've noticed is that the pro-right trend is much, much stronger in rural areas than in the cities. Most of the provincial capitals are seeing very small right wing swings, but the rural areas are easily seeing swings of +15% for the right.

In fact overall, other than in Huelva province, the rural areas seem to be basically just as conservative as the cities (maaybe they are still a couple points left wing, but not by much, if at all)

I suppose something to ponder if you believe in #globaltrends

As ever, I don't think we need to look to #globaltrends to explain anything. The Andalusian PSOE always governed in a basically clientelistic way and as far as I can tell, the Andalusian PP hasn't tried to dismantle any of that (not touching the PER, for instance, as you might generically expect a right-wing new broom to want to do) but instead just coasted on being the new incumbents while also not having decades of baggage. It makes sense that there'd be a pro-incumbent shift in former PSOE bastions under those circumstances.