Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[MRCVzla]

Alberto Núñez Feijóo is officially the new leader of PP as being elected by 98% of the party members during the extraordinary party congress held this weekend in Sevilla, parliamentary spokeperson Cuca Gamarra will be the party new General Secretary, as for former leader Pablo Casado, he's leaving politics resigning of his seat on the Congress.

Feijóo prior of the party congress, resigned of the Galicia PP leadership, and is expected to do the same for the Xunta regional presidency and be designed Senator to confront PM Sánchez in Parliament.

[Velasco]

Yesterday Alfonso Fernández Mañueco was reelected premier of Castilla y León, thanks to an unprecedented coalition deal between PP and Vox. For the first time since the re-establisjment of democracy in Spain, a far-right party is formally incorporated to a regional government. In 2021 the government of Murcia incorporated some members expelled from Vox alongside former Cs members that exited the orange party, frustrating the attempt to unseat the PP premier that triggered elections in Madrid.

Mañueco was supported by PP (31 seats) and Vox (13), while the rest of parties voted against: PSOE (28), UPL (3),  Soria Ya! (3), UP (1), Cs (1) and Por Ávila (1)

In order to get the Vox support,  Mañueco was forced to grant Vox three seats in the government (Agriculture, Industry and Employment, Culture) and vote a Vox speaker in the regional assembly (Cs was awarded three cabinet members with different portfolios and the speaker in the previous coalition deal). These appointments are not the only concessions made by the presumptively moderate PP premier. In his investiture speech Mañueco incorporated Vox demands concerning the introduction of the "donestic violence", historical "concord" and "orderly immigration" concepts.

Vox demanded the repeal of the regional laws on gender-based violence (violence against women and "vicarious violence" against minors) and the so-called "historical nemory" (vindication of the victims during the Spanish Civil War), deemed "leftist " by the far-right party despite they were passed during previous PP administrations.  Apparently the new law on "domestic violence " will coexist with the current legislation against gender-based violence, while the "historical memory  law will be replaced by a new law of "concord". In the first case Mañueco argued the new regional government will be "extending rights" to "protect all victims", while in the second case he argued the historical memory  "creates division". The problem us not only that the sole mention to the existence of of Republican victims of the Civil War, buried in ditches and mass graves, is an inconvenience for the Spanish Right. Even the mention of the Gernika bombings by the Condor Legion (Nazi Germany supported Franco) made by Zelensky during his recent speech to the Spanish Congress made Vox and some PP nembers feel uncomfortable. Their notion of "concord" is basically promoting srlective amnesia and giving free way to 'alternative' interpretations of history (aka historical revisionism).

Presumably the collaboration between PP and Vox will continue after the elections in Andalusia that will take place in the upcoming months, maybe before summer  We are only at the beginning of the  Feijóo era

[Velasco]

Andalusian premier Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (PP) has called a snap election in to be held on June 19, after an emergency cabinet meeting in Sevilla.

This morning Moreno Bonilla made a statement after a visit to the Macarena Hospital in Sevilla, giving thanks to the press for its love and affection to his persona (lol)

In the afternoon he held a meeting with deputy premier Juan Marin, who is also the Cs regional leader. Later Moreno Bonilla and Marin went together to Palacio de San Telmo, the seat of government. All the cabinet members attended the emergency meeting, in order to be informed about the premier's decision.

Moreno Bonilla has dissolved the regional parliament 24 hours before the meeting of a comission of inquiry that was intended to pass a final judgement about certain irregularities during the administrations  of Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán (PSOE). A law on Circular Economy eaz about to be passed with the support of PSOE and UP, while Vox was opposing it.

PP and Cs formed a coalition government in Andalusia propped up by the upsurging Vox, after the elections held in December 2018. That was a snap election called by the then premier Susaba Díaz (PSOE), who expected to win another term on office. However she got a very weak result for the traditionally hegemonic Andalusian branch of the PSOE, despite coming in first place. The PP came second getting its worst historical results,  while Cs came in a strong third and the leftwing coalition Adelante Andalucía underperformed. The big surprise of that election was the Vox surge that enabled an unprecedented rightwing majority in the Andalusian parliament.

PP is currently polling in first place, well ahead of the PSOE.  Vox is also polling atrongly, while the parties to the left of the PSOE are divided and in a state of disarray. Cs is expected to fall abruptly,  although it has chances to get some parliamentary representation.

Susana Díaz lost a regional leadership contest and was finally replaced by Juan Espadas, a former mayor of Sevilla backed by Pedro Sánchez.  Espadas became the PSOE regional leader, but he has little name recognition outside his home turf.

The leftwing Adelante Andalucía was split in two, when Teresa Rodríguez and her loyals parted ways with Podemos and IU. Teresa Rodríguez retained the AA trademark, launching under that denomination a new leftwing regionalist force advocating Andalusian sovereignty. It's unclear that Unidas Podemos and Más País will form a joint list, which seems like a prerequisite for the commitment of Yolanda Díaz to the campaign

Vox will play strong with the cibtroversial and inflammatory Macarena Olona as the likely candidate

[Mike88]

Adding to Velasco's good summary on the background of the Andalusian elections, here's the 3 recent polls from the region:

NC Report poll for La Razón newspaper:

33.3% PP, 45/47 seats
25.1% PSOE, 31/33
16.2% Vox, 17/18
  8.9% UP, 9/10
  5.1% AA, 2/3
  4.9% C's, 1/3
  2.4% AL, 0
  4.1% Others

Poll conducted between 18 and 22 April 2022. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo newspaper:

33.1% PP, 44 seats
25.7% PSOE, 33
17.6% Vox, 20
  9.4% UP, 8/9
  4.7% C's, 2
  3.2% AL, 0/1
  3.1% AA, 0/1
  3.2% Others

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 April 2022. Polled 2,200 voters. MoE of 2.10%.

SocioMétrica poll for El Español newspaper:

34.0% PP, 46 seats
24.8% PSOE, 33
16.5% Vox, 20
  7.7% UP, 7
  5.8% AA, 3
  3.9% C's, 0
  3.1% AL, 0
  4.2% Others

Poll conducted between 14 and 16 April 2022. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.30%.

[Velasco]

Leftwing parties launched yesterday something resembling an "unity" candidacy, despite the qualms of Podemos and the absence of the Teresa Rodríguez party (Adelante Andalucía)

They will likely concur under the name Por Andalucía ("For Andalusia"). The alliance incorporates Podemos,  IU, Más País,  Equo, and two smaller groups: Alianza Verde and Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz. The name was agreed without consensus, due to the resistance of Podemos to see its own trademark dissolved into a broader coalition. The Podemos trademark was powerful only a few years ago, but the purple party currently led by Ione Belarra is now in frank decline. Podemos currently lacks parliamentary representation in Andalusia, since the 17 seats won by the AA coalition were split between the homonym Teresa Rodríguez party (11) and IU (6). Still, the Podemos national leader is trying to get her preferred candidate nominated to lead the new leftwing alliance

[Velasco]

Cs public officials abandon the sinking ship, reports El País. Since the dissolution four members of the regional parliamentary group have announced they leave the party. Said members have been critical of deputy premier Juan Marin, who said that premier Juan Manuel Moreno called elections due to the favourable polls. Worth noting that, unlike in Madrid and Murcia, the reason to dissolve is not the breakdown of the coalition deal. Moreno argued this year's budget couldn't be passed (due to disagreements with Vox),  while Marin claims they were getting along fine with the extension of past year's budget. The relationship between both leaders remains cordial, apparently. On the other hand, Cs regional leader stated his party would not enter in a coalition deal with Vox or Podemos. The last poll teleased by Centra (the Andalusian CIS) projects that Cs would win 2 seats, down from 21 in 2018. More than 100 public officials have left Cs since March 2021, when the failed non-confidence motion in Murcia accelerated the disintegration of the Ciudadanos party

[Zinneke]

Absolutely shocked that an intelligence service that decided that spying on the King's ex-mistress was a useful expenditure of state resources also spied on their own PSOE Prime Minister. Shocked I tell you.

(and yes, the Catalan nationalists are also right that Sanchez and his beleaguered defence minister have probably released the fact that they have been spied on by Pegasus to deflect the fact that Spanish deep state is as bad as Orban's).

[Velasco]

Macarena Olona confirmed as Vox candidate in Andalusia.

Pegasus scandal: Over 200 Spanish mobile numbers possible targets of Israeli spyware. The suspected client is Morocco.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/03/over-200-spanish-mobile-numbers-possible-targets-pegasus-spyware

More than 200 Spanish mobile numbers were selected as possible targets for surveillance by an NSO Group client believed to be Morocco, according to the data leak at the heart of the Pegasus project.

Details of the scale of the apparent targeting came as Spain’s highest criminal court opened an investigation into how the mobile phones of the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and the defence minister, Margarita Robles, came to be infected with Pegasus spyware last year.  

  The Spanish government has refused to speculate on who may have been behind the “illicit” and “external” attacks, the existence of which it revealed on Monday at a hastily called press conference.

The targeting of the prime minister is alleged to have taken place in May and June last year – a particularly turbulent time in Spanish politics. Not only was the Sánchez administration preparing its controversial and deeply divisive pardons of nine Catalan independence leaders jailed over their parts in the failed secession attempt in 2017, Spain was also engaged in a tense diplomatic row with Morocco.

The mobile number selections believed to have been made by Morocco occurred in 2019, according to time stamps in the data, which includes more than 50,000 numbers of individuals selected as possible surveillance targets by NSO clients around the world.

A Spanish mobile number belonging to Aminatou Haidar, a prominent human rights activist from Western Sahara, was included in the leaked database and found to have been targeted by Pegasus dating back to 2018, according to an analysis by Amnesty International. Traces of the Pegasus spyware, which is sold by the Israeli company NSO Group, were also found on a second phone belonging to Haidar as recently as November 2021.

 A Spanish mobile number for the journalist Ignacio Cembrero – whose work is focused on the Maghreb – was also listed on the Pegasus project database  

Back in 2020 it surfaced Catalan Parliament speaker Roger Torrent was targeted with Pegasus. The main suspect in this case would be the Spanish CNI, since Pegasus developers claim they only sell its spyware to governments

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2020-07-14/catalan-parliamentary-speakers-cellphone-was-targeted-with-a-spy-program-only-available-to-governments.html

More recently Citizen Lab reported that dozens of Catalan pro-independence leaders have been allegedly monitored, triggering a crisis in the relationship between the coalition government and its parliamentary allies. Monitoring citizens is only legal if there exists a court order

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/18/catalan-leaders-targeted-using-nso-spyware-say-cybersecurity-experts


Growing concern in the EU over the use of Pegasus spyware

https://english.elpais.com/international/2022-05-03/pegasus-europes-deepening-spyware-scandal.html

 Concern over the use of a powerful spyware called Pegasus is growing in intensity in the European Union. An investigation committee launched by the European Parliament is preparing its first operational work meeting, which could be held this Thursday. The provisional agenda shows the presence of members of the Senate of Poland, one of the countries where there are suspicions about the use of Pegasus to spy on the government’s political rivals. The European Data Protection Supervisor has already called for programs like Pegasus to be banned on the grounds that they are very difficult to control and endanger fundamental rights and freedoms.  

[Velasco]

The six parties involved in the complicated negotiation to form a leftwing alliance to contest Andalusian elections reached a last minute agreement, which prevents further division. The new alliance will be called Por Andalucía ("For Andalusia") and incorporates the following parties: IU, Podemos, Más País, Equo, Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz and Alianza Verde.

Por Andalucía is supported by Deputy PM and Labour minister Yolanda Díaz,  who is the most popular figure within what used to be Unidas Podemos and is regarded the only viable leftwing candidate for the next general elections. After tense negotiations between Podemos and the rest of the allied parties, current UP spokeswoman in the Andalusian parliament Inmaculada Nieto (IU) was selected as candidate to contest regional elections.  Nieto and all of the 6 UP members in regional parliament belong to IU,  since all the remaining 11 members elected under the Adelante Andalucía banner defected from Podemos to join the new Teresa Rodríguez party (also called Adelante Andalucía).

Podemos was trying to impose its candidate until the last minute, despite the rest of parties agreed on the candidacy of Inmaculada Nieto. The latter was apparently selected as a compromise solution between IU (regional leader Toni Valero renounced to stand) and Más País  (regional leader Esperanza Gómez wanted an independent candidate)


This agreement was reached in extremis, to the point the coalition was registered including only 4 of the 6 member parties signing the political agreement, that is to say, the ones which previously agreed the candidacy of Inmaculada Nieto. Podemos and the smaller Alianza Verde are not officially registered and this circumstance can create a legal mess. According to sources Podemos members could run as candidates within the list, but they can’t be part of the coalition's governing body  

PD: amazed to discover that a friend of mine has been nominated AA candidate for Jaén,  on the top of the list

[Velasco]

Provincial parties and coalitions will contest Andalusian elections in Granada,  Huelva and Jaén

•Two provincial parties in Jaén province will converge in a joint list: Jaén Merece Más ("Jaen Deserves More") and Levanta Jaén  ("Raise Jaen"). The two platforms were born within the Emptied Spain movement. The goal of these platforms is to attract investments to Jaén,  that is the Andalusian province more afflicted by depopulation (population loss amounts to 40k in the last decade). Apparently the joint provincial list has chances of winning a seat, according to different polls

• Por Huelva (XH) was founded in December 2020. This candidacy has been propelled by a demonstration attended by 6000 people in the provincial capital,  demanding more infrastructure investment for Huelva

▪︎ Juntos por Granada  ("Together for Granada") is a 'separatist' platform advocating the 'Granadexit', that is to say, the creation of a new region centered in Granada (presumably covering Eastern Andalusia). The platform was founded in 2017 and its main promoter is a former PSOE councilor called César Girón, who is also a regional administration's attorney.

Sociométrica / El Español

PP 34 9% 44/46 seats
PSOE 25 8% 31/33
VOX 16.1% 19/21
PorA 10 8% 8/10
AA 4 3% 1/3
Cs 3.9% 0/2

Total seats: 108 (majority: 55)

The polls released so far show a clear advantage for the right, while leftwing voters appear demobilized.

Right now I think there are three possible scenarios:

1) PP-Vox coalition. According to polls, both parties would have a clear majority, but Feijóo and Moreno Bonilla would rather prefer to avoid a repetition of the CyL outcome

2) PP wins more seats than the cimbined left and forms minority government. This scenario is possible if Vox abstains in a second investiture vote, but Santiago Abascal rules out that possibility and demands Vox is awarded seats in regional government (with Macarena Olona as deputy premier). Very unlikely

3) PP minority government through political agreement with the PSOE (prelude to a future Concertación Nacional?). Very uncertain

[Velasco]

Main candidates in the Andalusian elections

PP: Juanma Moreno

Incumbent premier Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla seeks reelection. He is called familiarly Juanma Moreno in press articles, so I'll use that name too. Moreno was born on May 1 1970 (age 52). His birthplace was Barcelona, where Moreno's parents went in search of job opportunities,  but shortly after the family returned to Andalusia and settled in Málaga. Moreno has a degree in Protocol and Event Organization. He joined PP'S New Generations (youth branch) in 1989.

 In 1995 Juanma Moreno was elected councilor in the Málaga Town Hall, holding the Youth and Sports portfolios under mayor Celia Villalobos (she was later Health minister under José Maria Aznar). One year later Moreno was the New Generations chair in Andalusia and became member of the regional parliament in the following year. Subsequently Moreno was promoted to national chair of the PP’S youth branch. Moreno jumped into the Congress of Deputies in 2000 (initially as member for Cantabria) and served three consecutive terms until 2011. During those years he got his degree in the Camilo José Cela university (Madrid). He married in 2006 to a political scientist from Granada.

After the Mariano Rajoy's victory in 2011 Juanma Moreno was appointed  Secretary of State for Social Services and Equality.  In 2014 Moreno became PP'S chairman in Andalusia and noninated candidate in the following year to contest regional elections. By then Moreno was regarded a man of Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaria. PP'S electoral performance in 2015 was rather mediocre, coming second behind the PSOE led by Susana Díaz in the year of the Podemos and Ciudadanos upsurge. In the subsequent snap election held in December 2018 PP got its worst rlection result ever, but the rise of Ciudadanos and the surprising Vox's surge allowed an unprecedented rightwing majority. Eventually Moreno Bonilla became premier,  leading a PP-Cs coalition government propped up by Vox.

During these years and unlike in Madrid or Castilla y León, the working relationship between coalition partners PP and Cs has been apparently good. More problematic has been the relationship with Vox, with tense negotiations to pass regional budgets. Failure in the last budgetary negotiation served as a pretext to call elections this year. Juanma Moreno has adopted a moderate style, not unlike Feijóo in Galicia. Worth noting that, while their personal styles are less vociferous, the policies of Moreno and Feijóo difer little from the policies of Ayuso in Madrid.

In a brief conversation with Vox candidate Macarena Olona, taking place during the famous April's Fair in Sevilla,  Juanma Moreno reportedly told her that he intentds to run a quiet and non-confrontational campaign. In what appears an emulation of the Feijóo formula in Galicia,  the PP's campaign is going to be focused on the candidate ,(while hiding party logos and avoiding "ideological trenches"). Moreno himself said in a recent TV interview that it's more easy for Andalusians voting for him than voting for the PP. The campaign coordinator is the powerful Elias Bendodo, a skillful politician who has been Moreno's right hand in the regional government and currently is the number 3 in the PP national leadership. The campaign will try to avoid the mistakes made in Castilla y León, an election dominated by the national agenda and capitalized by Vox. Presumably the participation of Feijóo will be limited to 2 or 3 campaign acts, while the presemce of other regional leaders will be reduced.

PSOE: Juan Espadas

Former Sevilla mayor Juan Espadas replaces Susana Díaz. Espadas was born in Sevilla on September 30, 1966 (age 55). He got a degree in Law in 1989 (University of Sevilla) , later he got a Master in Environmental Management (Catlos III Uni, Madrid) and a Diploma in Business Management. Espadas is member of the Sevilla's Bar Association since 1990 and his professional career was developed in the regional government, particularly in the Regional Ministry of the Environment. The career of Juan Espadas in regional administration reached its highest point in 2008, with his appointment as regional minister for Housing and Planning by premier Manuel Chaves. Two years later Espadas was appointed Senator by the Andalusian parliament,  serving between 2010 and 2013 (he was appointed again in 2021 and is Incumbent).

In 2010 Juan Espadas was nominated by the PSOE to run as local candidate in the Andalusian capital. After a failed attempt in 2011, Espadas became mayor of Sevilla in 2015 with the support of IU and the local Podemos franchise, unseating the PP Incumbent. He won a second term in 2019 and resigned in 2021,  in order to devote himself to his new role of PSOE'S regional leader. Espadas began his collaboration with the PSOE in 1990 as a sympathizer, joining the party in 1997. Between that year and 2009 he was federal coordinator for Environment. With the support of the PSOE’S secretary general Pedro Sánchez, Juan Espadas defeated Susana Diaz in the 2021 regional leadership contest.

[Velasco]

Vox: Macarena Olona

Deputy Macarena Olona is the Vox's bid in the region that heralded the far-right surge in Spain. Olona was born in Alicante on May 14, 1979 (she's nearly 43 years old).  In 2003 she received her degree in Law with Extraordinary Prize (University of Alicante). Six years later Olona became a State Attorney, serving in the Basque Country between 2013 and 2017. Later she was transferred to Mercasa, a state-owned market supply company. Macarena Olona was recruited by Vox in 2019 (apparently through Linkedin) and elected member for Granada in the Congress of Deputies. She became the secretary general of the parliamentary group, as well as the whip of Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Her parliamentary interventions are characterized by extremely harsh language and personal attacks.

The Vox candidate in 2018 was judge Francisco Serrano, who was later investigated for alleged fraud. Serrano left the Vox party, but remained member of the Andalusian parliament.  Apparently Vox tried to hire another judge to run in this year's elections: the famous Mercedes Alaya who conducted the investigation of a corruption scheme during past PSOE administrations, known as the ERE case. Alaya rejected the offer. Reportedly she was adviced by judge Serrano, who discouraged her from entering politics


Por Andalucía: Inmaculada Nieto

UP spokeswoman Inmaculada Nieto will be the candidate of the turbulent leftwing coalition Por Andalucía. Nieto was born in Algaciras (Cádiz province) on March 15, 1971 (age 51). She has a degree in Political Science (University of Granada) and a Master in Public Administration. Currently she's studying Law in the University of Cádiz. Inmaculada Nieto is member of the CC.OO. union,  as well as member of the IU regional branch. Nieto has been councilor (2007-2019) and deputy mayor of Algeciras (2007-2011). She's member of the regional parliament since 2012 and became UP spokeswoman in 2019, replacing former IU leader Antonio Maillo.

Currently Por Andalucía incirporates IU, Más País, Equo and Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz. Podemos and Alianza Verde support the coalition, but failed to register as member parties. Podemos and IU have accused each other for the registration fiasco. Former Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias added fuel to the fire in a recent statement, saying the candidacy of Inmaculada Nieto was an imposition of Yolanda Díaz. There is a conflict between Podemos (still under the influence of Pablo Iglesias) and Yolanda Díaz, who aims to build a new political platform less reliant on the parties conforming Unidas Podemos. The platform should be announced by Díaz next summer, but the collective harakiri performed by her potential allies jeopardizes the future of that project

Adelante Andalucia: Teresa Rodríguez

Former Podemos regional leader and candidate Teresa Rodríguez stands for Adelante Andalucía,  a coalition formerly including Podemos and IU that now conforms a separate regional force. Rodríguez was born in Rota (Cádiz province) on September 18,,1981 (age 40). From an early age Teresa Rodríguez was engaged in the movement against the US military base of Rota. She later became involved in the student movement while attending university and graduated in Arabic Philology. She was IU member between 2000 and 2008. After her departure, she was a founding member of Anticapitalist Left and began working as high school teacher (Spanish language). Her political group was instrumental in the formation of Podemos, which was founded in early 2014. Teresa Rodríguez was one of the 5 Podemos MEPs elected in 2014, when the purple party led by Pablo Iglesias shocked country’s politics. Teresa Rodríguez became the Podemos leader in Andalusia and resigned her seat in the European Parliament, in order to contest the 2015 reional elections  in the following election she led Adelante Andalucía,  a coalition incorporating Podemos, IU and small regionalist parties. Political differences between Teresa Rodríguez and Pablo Iglesias, over the formation of a coalition government between PSOE and UP, led to the departure of Rodríguez and the Anticapitalist faction, announced in February 2020. Initially the breakaway was conveyed as an amicable separation,  but months later a nasty conflict erupted within the Adelante Andalucía parliamentary group. In June 2021 Adelante Andalucía held a constituent convention in Granada. In its current incarnation AA incorporates Anticapitalistas, alongside small regionalist groups and independents.

 The partner of Teresa Rodríguez is Kichi González,  Incumbent mayor of Cádiz

Ciudadanos: Juan Marin

The diminishing orange party places its hopes in Juan Marin, who is the acting deputy premier and holds the Tourism, Justice and Local Administrations portfolios. Marin was born in Sanlúcar (Cádiz province) on December 31, 1962 (age 59). He studied Labour Relations, but he left in order to run a family business (watches and jewellery).  His political career began in 1983, when he was a local candidate for the conservative AP. 23 years later later he founded a local party in Sanlúcar and was elected councilor in 2007, becoming deputy mayor in a coalition government with the local PSOE. His collaboration with Ciudadanos began in 2011, which was a first step towards the implementation of the Albert Rivera's Movimiento Ciudadano in Andalusia. In 2015 Marin was requested to contest regional elections. That year Cs broke with 9 seats in the regional parliament and facilitated the investiture of the PSOE candidate Susana Díaz.  In the following election Cs won 21 seats and entered in a coalition government with the PP. This year Cs struggles to retain parliamentary status.

[Velasco]

In order to contest Andalusian elections, Vox candidate Macarena Olona registered six months ago at Salobreña,  a coastal town of Granada province. Olona's address in Salobreña is the home of the Vox's provincial chairman Manuel Martín. According to the latter, there's no contract relationship other than the house of Martín is the  declared residence of Olona in Granada province. "I can't say she lives here regularly because I'd be lying", said Martín. Olona visited Salobreña last autumn and was registered on November 5. Olona was elected member for Granada
 in the November 2019 general election and lives in Madrid, where she sits in the Congress of Deputies. In other words, she's the typical paratrooper placed vy the party with no connection with the local constituency

PSOE candidate Juan Espadas asked Olona to explain why is she "skipping the rules". "She claims to be Andalusian,  but she neither was norn nor lives here". According to Espadas, "she forces the norm" to contest the elections (candidates are required to live in the region). AA candidate Teresa Rodríguez deems Olona's registration as a disrespect to Andalusia. "Vox spreads harred against foreigners,  claiming they register here to take advantage, while Vox candidate is doing the same to contest elections"

In a recent parliamentary intervention Macarena Olona addressed "the women of Spain ", while attacking yhe policies of Equality minister Irene Montero and the feminist movement.  "The second feminist wave deprived us of family and maternity, while the third wave goes a step further and aims to erase women". According to Olona, the feminist agenda of Montero is perjudicial for the women desiring to be mothers and aims for the imposition of a "gender ideology " that only Vox rejects.  -On a side note,  I think Olona is taking advantage of the feminist movement's division over transgender inclusion, opposed by certain veteran 'radfems' like Lidia Falcón (quoted by Olona in that intervention). I'd say TERFs and the far-right share a common hatred and that's deeply disturbing -

Montero replied rhat "reactionary ideas can't bring happiness to anyone" and that, "even in the darkest moments", the feminist movement has been fighting for freedom and democracy

[Velasco]

Deputy PM Yolanda Díaz takes a step to liberate herself from Podemos with the registration of an association called Sumar ("Sum", "Adding up"), reports El Periódico de España. Díaz already announced that she had the intent to start a "process of listening" after the Andalusian elections scheduled on June 19, in order to shape her candidacy by the end of this year.

The application for registration was submitted on March 28. "Sumar" will be an association, an entity different from a political party that anyway will serve as an instrument to build the Yolanda Diaz's platform. Official registration takes three months, so the new association will be born shortly after the elections. Yolanda Díaz herself did not take part in the registration formalities, but rather people from her team signed the application. The aim is gaining organizational independence from Podemos, as well consolidating a project different from the existing parties.

Despite Yolanda Díaz was sort of designated by Pablo Iglesias as the future UP canfidate, she has always demonstrated her independence and disdain for party infighting. Growing differences between Díaz and the Podemos leadership made this step neccessary for her.


The new association will allow Díaz to organize events, rent spaces or equipment, and hire companies. She will have legal and financial autonomy to undertake her project.

So far Yolanda Díaz asserted her condition of Deputy PM to gain visibility, while leaning on like minded people and organizations. She has been building a network of alliances since her designation in March 2021, participating in events such as the meeting of female leaders in Valencia. That event took place in November 2021 and was organized by Mónica Oltra (Compromis leader and deputy regional premier) and was attended by Ada Colau (Barcelona mayor and CatComú leader), Mónica García (Más Madrid leader) and Fátima Hossain (MDyC,  Ceuta). The absence of Podemos cabinet members Ione Belarra and Irene Montero was significant, even though organizers tried to play it down. IU leader Alberto Garzón has became another ally of Yolanda Díaz,  alongside Colau and Oltra.  Yolanda Díaz has also an excellent relationship with the CC.OO union (her father was the union's leader in Galicia), which allows her more visibility. Yolanda Díaz had a small team of collaborators in the Labour ministry, enlarged with new recruitments when she replaced Pablo Iglesias as Deputy PM. Her chief of staff Josep Vendrell intervened to unlock negotiations between leftwing parties in Andalusia


Díaz said recently in TV the alliance of the left-wing parties to contest French legislatives is an inspiration for her. On the following day she visited the April's Fair in Sevilla calling for the unity of the Andalusian left. On both occassions she used the verb "sumar" as a mantra.

https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1522153881354096640?t=p5BUNyNzFd-p7IbFv...

Yolanda Diaz attended San Isidro festivals in Madrid past Sunday. There she was seen in good tune with Mas País leader Iñigo Errejón.

Back in March 2021, during the hand over ceremony between Pablo Iglesias and her, Yolanda Diaz recited some verses from fellow Galician GaRosalía de Castro

Yo, sin embargo, soy libre, libre como los pájaros, como las brisas; como los árabes en el desierto y el pirata en la mar

"I, however, am free -free as the birds and the breezees; as the Arabs in the desert and the pirate at sea"

[Former President tack50]

Honestly I feel the entire space "to the left of PSOE" looks completely lost and directionless to me. I am sure they will all eventually coalesce into some sort of coalition but the constant namechanges, minor infighting and alliances I don't think are helping them.

In any case, I guess just another reason as to why Feijoo will be Spain's next PM (though who knows, at one point I thought Casado was guaranteed to become PM)

[Velasco]

Honestly I feel the entire space "to the left of PSOE" looks completely lost and directionless to me. I am sure they will all eventually coalesce into some sort of coalition but the constant namechanges, minor infighting and alliances I don't think are helping them.

In any case, I guess just another reason as to why Feijoo will be Spain's next PM (though who knows, at one point I thought Casado was guaranteed to become PM)

Yolanda Díaz has to build her new artifact, because the Podemos decline is unstoppable.The problem is that the left might be engaging in a self-destructive spiral, especially because Pablo Iglesias still influences Podemos and the party wants to keep its protagonic role and power quotas.  IU, MP and others have grudges with Podemos as well.

 I wish her the best of luck, because I don't want to live the nightmare of a PP-Vox government led by Feijóo

By the way, Feijóo has given Moreno free hand to negotiate in Andalusia. PP+VOX looks like an inevitability

[Velasco]

Just noticed this 40dB poll for El País anticipating a bloodbath for the left in Andalusia

PP 36.5% 48 seats
PSOE 26.0% 33 seats
Vox 16.4% 18 seats
Por Andalucía 8.6% 7 seats
Adelante Andalucía 6.0% 3 seats
Ciudadanos 3.0% 0 seats

Preferred premier

Juanma Moreno (PP) 36.5%
Juan Espadas (PSOE) 9.9%
Teresa Rodríguez (AA) 8.8%
Macarena Olona (Vox) 7.2%
Inmaculada Nieto (PorA) 5.0%
Juan Marin (Cs) 2.8%

Evaluation of government

Very Good/excellent 15.3%
Good 25.3%
Average 33.7%
Bad 11.9%
Very bad/horrible 9.3%

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-andalucia/2022-05-30/el-pp-acaricia-un-gobierno-en-solitario-en-andalucia.html

[Velasco]

The campaign starts tonight.  PP and Vox on the rise and huge demobilization in the left

CIS pre-campaign survey

PP 35.6% (47/49 seats)
PSOE 25 2% (32/36)
Vox 15 3% (17/21)
Por Andalucía 9.7% (9/10)
Adelante Andalucía 4.7% (2)
Ciudadanos 4.1% (1/3)
Jaén Merece Más 0.7% (0/1)
Others/blank 4.8%

Preferred premier

Juanma Moreno (PP) 43%
Juan Espadas (PSOE) 13.4%
Macarena Olona £Vox) 6.6%
Teresa Rodríguez (AA) 5.8%
Inmaculada Nieto (PorA) 3.7%

[Velasco]

First TV debate took place yesterday night. People who was following says it was a bit boring,  but it represents a start for a dispirited campaign. Some commentators point out there were some bright spots among the dispiritedness,  but very few think the predictable course of events will be altered to a significant degree. Of course the inflammatory Macarena Olona was the starring protagonist, not neccessarily for good. Some impressions (the sources are El País and some journalists in Twitter)

● There’s no chemistry between Juanma Moreno (PP) and Macarena Olona (Vox). Premier Juanma Moreno bypassed the question, but very few doubt he will govern with Vox in case there's no chance for a minority government. However, Moreno was visibly uncomfortable with some gross statements omade by Olona.  "Enough. I ask you to be respectul with people in the audience,  that doesn't want (to see) a spectacle but rather they want a debate". This was the only clash between them, for Macarena Olona was mainly confronted by Juan Marin and Teresa Rodríguez. Juanma Moreno managed to stay out, which is the best tactic for him. For her part,  Macarena Olona didn't make a direct question on coalition deals to Juanma Moreno,  but stated clearly her conditions: abolishing the law on gender-based violence, targeting immigrants, drastic reduction of "political spending" and massive tax cuts

● Inmaculada Nieto (Por Andalucía) made calls against "resignation" and avoided attacks on her leftwing rival Teresa Rodríguez (Adelante Andalucía). Nieto's discourse was "moderate" and focused on the cracks in Moreno's government, while vindicating the achievements of Yolanda Díaz (labour reform, minimum wage increase...). Worth noting Por Andalucía tried to prevent the participation of Teresa Rodríguez in the debate, but finally they are aware vicious infighting demobilizes leftwing voters

● Juanma Moreno didn't make mistakes, other than giving the impression that he's too self-confident. He was succesful in avoiding clashes with rivals and talking about coalitions with Vox. Moreno conveyed the message that he is a moderate and wants a PP minority government.  He appealed to a "serene majority" of "centered" voters. Polls show the Andalusian PP has acquired a status of "governing party" that attracts certain type of voters  previously backing PSOE

● PSOE candidate Juan Espadas focuses his efforts in recovering the lost status of "party of government". He appealed to a wide range of social groups (women, youngsters, workers...) and made calls for the mobilization of progressive voters. One of the main problems of the PSOE is a (not massive but) significant transfer of voters to the PP,  consequence of the status change and the ability of PP strategists to convey an institutional image . The fear of Vox doesn't work anymore to mobilize the progressive base, clear sign of normalization

● The Cs candidate Juan Marin stated his willingness to continue with the "government of change", despite his coalition partner Juanma Moreno said clearly tge PP is seeking to govern in its own.

● Macarena Olona (Vox) added the "defence of tradition" and the fight against "climate fanaticism" to the other conditions you can read in the first point, as well as the crusade against "indoctrination " in schools vía ",ideological" textbooks. All of these are key "cultural battles " for Vox and the Ayuso's faction in the PP.

● Teresa Rodríguez (Adelante Andalucía) felt comfortable in the vindication of Andalusian interests and her feminist stance. One of the debate highlights was her clash with Macarena Olona,  who denies the existence of gender-based violence.  Rodríguez said that Vox is "the armed wing of macho terrorism".

Regarding to Vox it's amazing the party didn't care to elaborate a proper platform,  other than a 10-point leaflet.  Still,  the party is polling well and Olona has the potential to create problems to Moreno

More disturbing is an article written by Federico Jiménez Losantos (our Rush Limnaugh) released by the rightwing outletLibertad Digital . Losantos says that Vox is neccessary and deems the party a "National Movement ", in a sample of explicit Francoism that should provoke shivers down the spine of any Spaniard.  I'll quote one of the most disturbing parts for you:

https://www.libertaddigital.com/opinion/federico-jimenez-losantos/si-vox-no-existiese-habria-que-inventarlo-6904316/

Aunque demoler las atrocidades de la izquierda totalitaria y la derecha lela tiene tarea de sobra, es urgente que la opinión pública vea proyectos que, en materia de educación o seguridad jurídica, en todos los ámbitos, del fiscal al familiar y sexual, del empresarial a la propiedad privada. Y en el Poder deberá hacer lo que nunca ha hecho: tomar medidas impopulares. Lo que hoy imanta ilusiones, mañana puede reunir decepciones. Es inevitable.  

"Even though demolishing  the atrocities of the totalitarian left and the foolish right is enough task, it's urgent public opinion sees projects that, on matters of education and legal certainty, at all levels, from fiscality to family and sex, from entrepeneurship to private property. Once in power (the right) will have to do what never dared to do, taking unpopular measures. What today magnets illusion tomorrow can gather deception. It's inevitable "

Try to imagine the "unpopular measures" this influential  fanatic is envisioning

EDIT: Vox candidate Macarena Olona won't participate in public events until next Friday in a rally with national leader Santiago Abascal. Clear proof the debate wasn't good for Vox. Olona is simply unable to modulate her tone and discourse,  she's always aggresive and overacted

[Mike88]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

[jaichind]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Any link to results?

[Mike88]

Well, the election is today.

At 11:30 am, 15.3% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Any link to results?

Official results page: https://resultados.eleccionesparlamentoandalucia2022.es/resultados/0/andalucia

Turnout updates: https://resultados.eleccionesparlamentoandalucia2022.es/avances/0/andalucia

[Logical]

Most interesting thing to watch for today is whether PSOE will not finish first in the province of Seville for the first time ever.

[Mike88]

At 2pm, turnout is up more than 4% compared with 2018: 34.23%

[Mike88]

The provinces with the biggest increases in turnout, at 2pm, are Córdoba, Jaén and Sevilla, areas where PSOE is normally strong. The provinces with the smallest increases in turnout are Almería, Cádiz and Málaga, areas where PP is strong.

However, it's not clear if this trend is benefiting or hurting the main parties.