Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM
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  Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM  (Read 93899 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #575 on: February 13, 2022, 05:54:09 PM »
« edited: February 13, 2022, 05:58:03 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.
Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.
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YL
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« Reply #576 on: February 14, 2022, 04:48:28 AM »

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.
Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.

Hence "Empty Spain".  It had nearly twice that in the mid 20th century.

What sort of people are voting for the Leonese regionalists and for Por Ávila?  I note the former got very high shares in some parts of León province, quite widely over 30% in areas around León city and in the north-east, and locally over 40%.  El Bierzo doesn't seem very interested in them, on the other hand, and nor do Zamora or Salamanca provinces.
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Skye
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« Reply #577 on: February 14, 2022, 06:13:01 AM »

Precinct maps from eldiario:

https://www.eldiario.es/castilla-y-leon/mapa-consulta-resultados-elecciones-castilla-leon-calle-calle_1_8737828.html

and El País:

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-castilla-y-leon/2022-02-14/el-mapa-calle-a-calle-de-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-en-castilla-y-leon.html
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #578 on: February 14, 2022, 08:21:05 AM »

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.
Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.

Hence "Empty Spain".  It had nearly twice that in the mid 20th century.

What sort of people are voting for the Leonese regionalists and for Por Ávila?  I note the former got very high shares in some parts of León province, quite widely over 30% in areas around León city and in the north-east, and locally over 40%.  El Bierzo doesn't seem very interested in them, on the other hand, and nor do Zamora or Salamanca provinces.
Soria's population density is slightly lower than that of the territory of the Highlands Council in Scotland.
So yes, Empty Spain indeed.
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #579 on: February 14, 2022, 12:31:49 PM »

Vox entering the government would be quite interesting.
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
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« Reply #580 on: February 16, 2022, 01:17:59 PM »

Sesión de control del gobieno in the Senate yesterday seemed like a lot of fun. Sanchez needled Javier Maroto on why they need PSOE to abstain in Castilla y Leon, since they are so afraid of even uttering Vox's name and they don't want to govern with them.
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« Reply #581 on: February 16, 2022, 10:15:28 PM »

Does anyone have info on the Diaz Ayuso spying situation? It sounds like PP themselves were spying on her. It's almost taking over Castilla y Leon news in the media coverage.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #582 on: February 16, 2022, 10:31:04 PM »

Does anyone have info on the Diaz Ayuso spying situation? It sounds like PP themselves were spying on her. It's almost taking over Castilla y Leon news in the media coverage.

In short, anti-Ayuso members tried to hire detectives to expose corruption on the part of her brother but failed and instead word reached Ayuso who naturally wasn't happy. With recent polling that has VOX in a tie with PP after getting a tailwind from their strong CyL result I don't think it could have come up at a worse time for Casado.
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xelas81
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« Reply #583 on: February 16, 2022, 11:09:17 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2022, 11:20:41 PM by xelas81 »

It seems that Ciudadanos won the town of Caleruega (population of 419) in Burgos.
The town is notable for the birthplace of the Saint Dominic, founder of Dominican Order and have a Ciudadanos mayor.
I guessing that second is the most likely reason for C's success there.
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« Reply #584 on: February 17, 2022, 07:57:10 AM »

Ayuso just gave a big press statement condemning the spying and explicitly accusing the PP leadership and Pablo Casado of the actions. Is this finally the fabled Ayuso challenge to replace la dirección nacional?
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« Reply #585 on: February 17, 2022, 08:17:21 AM »

RTVE says Garcia Egea will be giving a statement at 3 PM (or 9 AM Eastern time).

All the PP leaders did not show up to Congress today (despite there being votes) which allowed Alvarez de Toledo speak on their behalf! Obviously she took the opportunity to tear down Casado some more. They also cancelled all their media appearances for the day
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Logical
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« Reply #586 on: February 17, 2022, 09:35:04 AM »

Ayuso is an very lucky politician, isn't she? First it was Cifuentes' plagiarism and shoplifting scandal which opened the path to her presidency. Then a botched deal in Murcia gave her an excuse to ditch Cs and send them to near extinction. Now a misstep by Casado and her intra party opponents could finally hand her the leadership of PP.
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« Reply #587 on: February 17, 2022, 10:08:40 AM »

García Egea punched back against Ayuso saying that they investigated her based on a tip they got to make sure she wasn't doing anything wrong (I can't blame them, to see her brother get a state contract really invites suspicion to say the least). García Egea also said the PP has given her everything in her career, and that he can't believe she is taking this normal thing out of context for her own benefit to betray her colleagues like this.
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Velasco
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« Reply #588 on: February 17, 2022, 03:51:37 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2022, 06:46:29 AM by Velasco »

Soria Ya seems to have taken about half of the left and a third of the right vote. In a general election they could possibly sweep both seats in Soria.
Soria has only 90,000 people? Good lord.
No wonder they elect only 2 members.

Hence "Empty Spain".  It had nearly twice that in the mid 20th century.

What sort of people are voting for the Leonese regionalists and for Por Ávila?  I note the former got very high shares in some parts of León province, quite widely over 30% in areas around León city and in the north-east, and locally over 40%.  El Bierzo doesn't seem very interested in them, on the other hand, and nor do Zamora or Salamanca provinces.

The Leonese regionalists (UPL) and Por Ávila (XAV) have little in common. The former is a long established local force in León province, while the latter is a PP split. I know little about the Leonese regionalism other than it advocates the re-establisjment of the former region of León,  which was amalgamated with the northern Castilian provinces in 1983 to create the current region. Castilla y León makes sense from a geographical and economic point of view, encompassing the northern half of the Spanish plateau with the capital Valladolid in a central position.  People in León province always resented the loss of regional status and the centralist leanings of the regional government located in Valladolid,  which is also the main economic centre and a communications hub. However Leonese regionalists have been always weak outside León province and depopulation makes their vindication of a separate region more unlikely.  The reason why Leonese regionalists are weaker in El Bierzo is related to the particularities of that micro-region within León province, both geographic and cultural.  El Bierzo is isolated from the rest of the province by mountains and has a separate identity with closer links to the neighbouring Galicia. It is also remarkable the historical connection between León province and Asturias. Apparently the provincial movement of the Empty Spain platform León Ruge  ("Leon Roars") renounced to compete against UPL, which benefitted from the rise of local parties in severely depopulated provinces. Despite the opportunistic Santiago Abascal said on election night that Vox was ready to listen the demands of the Emptied Spain,  neither UPL nor Soria Ya have affinity with the far-right (but maybe the case of XAV is different)

Schism in the PP: knives out

Will Ayuso lead a PP split to create a new right-wing party with some Vox elements?

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Zinneke
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« Reply #589 on: February 18, 2022, 09:29:26 AM »

Casado has gone up in my estimation after this episode. He seemed like a perennial loser and a cuck waiting to be displaced but he took initiative in urquhartian fashion and has desecrated Saint Ayuso's polished cranky far right libertarian image. I would like to see what our resident cani thinks of this but he might be on the front line in Ukraine somewhere, testing the landmines.
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Mike88
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« Reply #590 on: February 18, 2022, 05:55:14 PM »

This is going to end with Feijóo as leader, isn't it? (Which could be quite positive for PP, in my view)
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Velasco
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« Reply #591 on: February 19, 2022, 07:02:37 AM »

This is going to end with Feijóo as leader, isn't it? (Which could be quite positive for PP, in my view)

This clash us going to end badly, I am afraid.  I guess Feijoo could be a relatively decent choice for the PP leadership (the man could be waiting for an opportunity),  but in my view the most positive outcome would be the dissolution of the PP to create a new centre-right party (Ayuso and the rightwing populists would be better in a merger with Vox). I mean, the PP is rotten since its foundation (as the Gurtel case demonstrates) and has no remedy at all. On the other hand, these two products of the 'New De-Generations' (Casado  and Ayuso) have killed the party already.
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Mike88
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« Reply #592 on: February 19, 2022, 07:49:59 AM »

This is going to end with Feijóo as leader, isn't it? (Which could be quite positive for PP, in my view)

This clash us going to end badly, I am afraid.  I guess Feijoo could be a relatively decent choice for the PP leadership (the man could be waiting for an opportunity),  but in my view the most positive outcome would be the dissolution of the PP to create a new centre-right party (Ayuso and the rightwing populists would be better in a merger with Vox). I mean, the PP is rotten since its foundation (as the Gurtel case demonstrates) and has no remedy at all. On the other hand, these two products of the 'New De-Generations' (Casado  and Ayuso) have killed the party already.

I don't know if a dissolution is the best option as it would take time, but maybe a full "nip the evil in the bud" is the best option, as in remove Casado, Ayuso and all of the "toxic" people and start a fresh. From what I understand, I don't know if I'm wrong, Ayuso may be the one that loses the most as she was a rising star but now there's more and more revelations of corruption in her administration. Casado, always had that view of him, of being a weak and "transitional" leader.

But you're right on one thing, they need to do something and quickly as the only party that will benefit from this debacle is Vox, as PSOE is also full of "problems" and will probably not benefit a lot by a PP colapse.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #593 on: February 19, 2022, 09:58:38 AM »

There are too many people who stand to lose from a PP dissolution for it to happen. Deep state is a strong term but there are enough people who will crack some skulls together to make the PP continue.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #594 on: February 19, 2022, 04:06:39 PM »

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Velasco
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« Reply #595 on: February 19, 2022, 04:44:41 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2022, 04:54:26 PM by Velasco »

I don't think "Data 10" is a reliable pollster and I wouldn't trust anything coming from the Vox friendly OK Diario (let alone electomania), but anyway the PP crisis benefits the far right

On a separate note, Casado and Mañueco called a snap election in Castilla y León partly because PP friendly pollsters GAD3 and SigmaDos told them absolute majority was close.  GAD3 director Narciso Michavila was spotted on predicting the Ayuso's landslide in Madrid, but failed miserably in Castilla y León
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Mike88
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« Reply #596 on: February 20, 2022, 07:59:32 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2022, 08:04:03 AM by Mike88 »

The PP "mexican soap opera" is becoming out of hand... (to say the least)


Quote
This is what the headquarters of @populares looks like right now from a third floor of Génova street. Shouts from @IdiazAyuso president and Casado resignation. “All this has gotten out of hand”, sources from the PP say to me
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Skye
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« Reply #597 on: February 21, 2022, 03:59:36 PM »

I've honestly not paid as much attention as I should to the whole Casado-Ayuso fiasco, but I gotta say, I passed in front of Génova today and the front door was packed with journalists. Hopefully they got something juicy.
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Mike88
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« Reply #598 on: February 21, 2022, 05:47:33 PM »

I've honestly not paid as much attention as I should to the whole Casado-Ayuso fiasco, but I gotta say, I passed in front of Génova today and the front door was packed with journalists. Hopefully they got something juicy.

There was a meeting of Casado leadership team and it seems that even they are divided, with half wantin Casado to resign now, and the other half to stay and fight. At the same time, it seems that Feijóo and Ayuso have a "pact" to overthrow Casado, and she said she's not interested in the leadership. Casado says he will not resign and wants to call a snap party congress to resolve the dispute.

Curiously, this PP feud is having a lot of media coverage in Portugal, with the media basically discussing which center-right is the stupidest, the Spanish one or the Portuguese one.
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Velasco
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« Reply #599 on: February 22, 2022, 03:48:27 AM »
« Edited: February 22, 2022, 04:16:35 AM by Velasco »

Casado is dead, politically speaking.  The leader of the PP has been forced by his regional barons* to step back in the accusations against the Ayuso's brother, as well as to call a "national convention" which eventually will lead to an extraordinary congress. Casado is losing support within party's leadership and all the fingers point to Feijoo as a consensus leader, while Ayuso still claims she has been victim of a vicious attack and that her place is in Madrid. I'm hearing speculation in media about a possible pact between the 'moderate' Feijoo and the populist leader of Madrid, whose fans demobstrated in front of PP's HQs (as quoted in the tweet of Javier Negre, a rightwing journalist).

I find particularly amazing how successful is the Trumpist Ayuso in diverting the focus from her brother's alleged corruption (even if it was legal, his commission during the pandemic is highly immoral), but I'm not surprised at all at Casado's incompetence (let alone his right hand Teodoro García Egea).

* The main PP barons are Feijoo in Galicia,  Ayuso in Madrid,  Moreno Bonilla in Andalusia and Mañueco in Castilla y León.  The latter is about to sign a coalition deal with Vox, while Moreno Bonilla will face elections before the end of the year
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