Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[BigSerg]

The polls continue to be disastrous for the left, this one in particular is horrible. Andalusia has practically become Madrid.2

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1450041903001571328?s=20

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1449104174805884938?s=20

[Former President tack50]

While I see Andalucia as very likely to be retained by the right, I don't think Juanma Moreno will get a full Ayuso style landslide. That poll looks really rosy for the right and for PP in particular. 38% is only 2 points less than Javier Arenas got in 2012; when PP was at its peak

Though in a bit of bad news for the left, Mas Pais announced they'll run in the Andalusian election. That is 1-2% of the vote that will go straight into the garbage bin. Does not help at all how divides the parties to the left of PSOE are.

[Velasco]

It looks like a recipe for disaster, in case UP, Adelante Andalucía MP are unable to forge electoral alliances  i read in the news Más País will ally with two tiny regionalist organizations (Andalucía por el Si, and Iniciativa), as well seeks an alliance with Equo. The MP regional coordinator says alliances with Adelante are difficult due to some stances held by the Teresa Rodríguez party (I guesss Esperanza Gómezrefers to some rhetorics of grievance), but they are not discarded.

Adelante Andalucía ("Forward Andalusia") was initially an electoral alliance to contest the 2018 regional elections incorporating Podemos, IU and regionalists. Internal divisions within the alliance and Podemos itsef led to the split of the faction led by Teresa Rodríguez,  who controlled the Podemos regional organization in Andalusia and was one of the leaders of Anticapitalistas (the left-wing trotskyst faction of Podemos, solit in February 2020). Initially it seemed that Pablo Iglesias and Teresa Rodríguez parted in good terms, with both leaders sharing a video and pronising a future reunion or collaboration. Some months later (October 2020), a nasty conflict within the AA parliamentary group led to the expulsion of Teresa Rodríguez and her loyals (the latter were a majority within the caucus, but the other parliamentary groups agreed that UP would retain the group status in the regional assembly). Teresa Rodríguez and her supporters owned the Adelante Andalucía trademark and used it to launch a new party (Adelante was re-founded in a convention held at Granada's emblematic Albaicin, July 2021). Adelante Andalucía is sovereigntist and might resemble in some ways leftwing organizations like Bildu or the CUP, but as far as I can tell AA does not stand for Andalusian independence.

(I think Cs is too high in that poll: that 8% is unrealistic for a dead party. The PP isa bit high too, but 38% seems more plausible if oranges collapse)

More interestingly there has been speculation in the last months regarding to the plans of Yolanda Díaz, who is seeking to build a "broad front " or cross-party alliance that transcends Unidas Podemos,  incorporating elements of the civil society while avoiding ego contests and "testosterone". Yolanda Díaz is currently focused on her duties as Deputy PM and Labour minister, but it's possible she has begun contacts. The apparent heir to Pablo Iglesias has remarkable differences with her friend in what concerns communication and (presumably) leadership style. Recently Iván Redondo, that Chief of Staff apparently sacked by Pedro Sánchez after the Madrid fiasco, said Yolanda Díaz could become PM, reasining that she has a very strong profile (best valued politician atm) and is the preferred candidate by those under 45.  Pedro Sánchez himself praises her deputy and wishes she is able to unite the forces to the left of PSOE.  Iñigo Errejón and Más País rule out the possibility of an alliance at rhis moment, arguing it's too soon and the candidacy of Yolanda Díaz is not consolidated . However MP members say in private they could be forced to join the Yolanda Díaz project,  given that she appeals to the same voters and represents the same brand of pragmatic leftism

[BigSerg]

The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

[Former President tack50]

The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

While PNV is slightly unhappy with the budget and the electricity prices decree, there is no way they vote down the budget. If the budget gets voted down, ERC will be the most likely party to do so; but I think Sanchez will manage to pass the budget

[BigSerg]

The coming months will be interesting for the PNV. I expect a rapprochement between the PNV and PP and I would not rule out that they will vote NO to the state budget.

While PNV is slightly unhappy with the budget and the electricity prices decree, there is no way they vote down the budget. If the budget gets voted down, ERC will be the most likely party to do so; but I think Sanchez will manage to pass the budget

I think Otegi's move has scared them a lot. It is a real possibility that they will lose the government of Euskadi. The rhetoric against Bildu is very harsh and shows that they are worried about a left tripartite.

[BigSerg]

The PNV is clearly worried about the normalization of Bildu. They see it as a threat to their control of the Basque government.  


https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/pais-vasco/2021-10-20/el-pnv-pone-en-duda-el-discurso-de-otegi-es-un-instrumento-para-conseguir-sus-fines_3309621/

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-sobre-palabras-otegi-cara-declaracion-sobre-victimas-202110201211_noticia.html

[Mike88]

A bit off topic, but this is hilarious:

https://twitter.com/ElHuffPost/status/1450847512407982083

Villarejo assures that they injected female hormones and testosterone inhibitors to the emeritus king "to lower his libido because it was considered a state problem that he was so hot"

No wonder he was "Don Juan"...

[Velasco]

The PNV is clearly worried about the normalization of Bildu. They see it as a threat to their control of the Basque government.  


https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/pais-vasco/2021-10-20/el-pnv-pone-en-duda-el-discurso-de-otegi-es-un-instrumento-para-conseguir-sus-fines_3309621/

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-sobre-palabras-otegi-cara-declaracion-sobre-victimas-202110201211_noticia.html

I think the complete "normalization" of Bildu requires a generational replacement in the leadership,  for the old guard is inevitably linked to ETA. Otegi made an important move in naming the suffering of ETA victims -ten years after the end of the terrorist group-, but it's still insufficient. I have a hard time imagining government coalitions including Bildu and PSOE right now, but it could happen in the future when Otegi is retired

I refuse to comment Villarejo's stuff

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Yolanda Díaz, greeted with chants of "prime minister" and shouts from teamsters at an event for women politicians in Valencia
“We are here to stay”, assured Mónica Oltra, at the start of the ‘Otras políticas’ event

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-13/yolanda-diaz-recibida-con-proclamas-de-presidenta-y-gritos-de-transportistas-en-el-acto-de-mujeres-politicas-de-valencia.html

I will now attempt to translate the first paragraph of the body of this story. Please native Spaniards bear with me in my translations for I am merely a household speaker and don't really understand some of the more technical terms in this story, especially la dignificación del sector at the end which I think translates to "respect" but could be wrong. And I'm pretty sure that transportistas are "teamsters" but correct me if I'm wrong.

Amid chants of "prime minister," Yolanda Díaz was received upon her arrival to the event organized in Valencia by Iniciativa, the party of Mónica Oltra. The 2nd Deputy Prime Minister, together with Oltra, the Vice President of the Valencian government; the Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau; the leader of Más Madrid, Mónica García; and the Ceutan politician Fátima Hossain participated in the event, […] The five women, arm in arm, waved left and right, applauded the attendees, and found, less than a hundred meters away at the entrance of the theater, a demonstration of teamsters who managed to put themselves nearly centimeters from the women and who threw a few eggs. Despite the fact that the police had to intervene, after containing the protesters a few meters from the entrance for more than half an hour, the cheers for the leaders were greater than the shouts against them. The protesters flung chants of "they do not represent us" as part of their protest for the respect of the sector.

The political discussion around this has to do with the public display of pro- and anti-Yolanda sentiment, as well as the exclusion of Podemos politicians from the event (Yolanda is an Izquierda Unida/Partido Comunista member of the Unidas Podemos alliance as well as the alliance's de facto leader, but not a member of the Podemos party). It's believed that these 5 women will be part of a new political alliance seeking to replace Unidas Podemos, although they deny these claims.

I, for one, welcome our new feminist overlords.

[Boobs]

Don't know if there's a thread for old Spanish election maps. If there is I'll delete this and post appropriately.

Nevertheless, here's the 1983 regional election in La Rioja, the first held since the restoration of democracy. PSOE won a bare majority of seats on 47%, while the Popular Coalition got second with 40%. Regionalist PRP (now PR+) got 7.5% and 2 seats, winning a handful of municipalities.



Many of the municipalities in La Rioja are rather tiny (with many under 100 people). Most of the large cities, including Logroño, voted PSOE. The largest municipality won by the AP-PDL-UL was Lardero outside of Logroño. AP also won Santo Domingo de la Calzada 36%-35% against the PRP. AP performed better in the rural, sparsely populated south, while the wine country rural municipalities were more competitive. PSOE also performed especially strongly in industrial Arnedo.

[Velasco]

Yolanda Díaz, greeted with chants of "prime minister" and shouts from teamsters at an event for women politicians in Valencia
“We are here to stay”, assured Mónica Oltra, at the start of the ‘Otras políticas’ event

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-13/yolanda-diaz-recibida-con-proclamas-de-presidenta-y-gritos-de-transportistas-en-el-acto-de-mujeres-politicas-de-valencia.html

I will now attempt to translate the first paragraph of the body of this story. Please native Spaniards bear with me in my translations for I am merely a household speaker and don't really understand some of the more technical terms in this story, especially la dignificación del sector at the end which I think translates to "respect" but could be wrong. And I'm pretty sure that transportistas are "teamsters" but correct me if I'm wrong.

Amid chants of "prime minister," Yolanda Díaz was received upon her arrival to the event organized in Valencia by Iniciativa, the party of Mónica Oltra. The 2nd Deputy Prime Minister, together with Oltra, the Vice President of the Valencian government; the Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau; the leader of Más Madrid, Mónica García; and the Ceutan politician Fátima Hossain participated in the event, […] The five women, arm in arm, waved left and right, applauded the attendees, and found, less than a hundred meters away at the entrance of the theater, a demonstration of teamsters who managed to put themselves nearly centimeters from the women and who threw a few eggs. Despite the fact that the police had to intervene, after containing the protesters a few meters from the entrance for more than half an hour, the cheers for the leaders were greater than the shouts against them. The protesters flung chants of "they do not represent us" as part of their protest for the respect of the sector.

The political discussion around this has to do with the public display of pro- and anti-Yolanda sentiment, as well as the exclusion of Podemos politicians from the event (Yolanda is an Izquierda Unida/Partido Comunista member of the Unidas Podemos alliance as well as the alliance's de facto leader, but not a member of the Podemos party). It's believed that these 5 women will be part of a new political alliance seeking to replace Unidas Podemos, although they deny these claims.

I, for one, welcome our new feminist overlords.

"Transportistas" can be translated as "carriers" or "hauliers", but "teamsters" is OK ("camionero": trucker).

"Dignificar el sector" can be translated as "dignifying the (transport) sector"

Those truckers who throw eggs make me think a little in Chile, 1973. Maybe I'm exaggerating,  but I see there are too many angry people and a clear danger of reactionary involution. On the other hand, it seems some powerful business people want a PP-Vox government. Others in the establishment would prefer a PP-PSOE Grand Coalition without the evil Pedro Sánchez

Yolanda Díaz is right now the most popular leader at a personal level, so she is increasingly perceived as dangerous by her rivals (external and internal). Yolanda Díaz is still a PCE member, but she has never been in Podemos and withdrew from IU a couple of years ago.  Currently she is much more than the declining Unidas Podemos, as well the only person capable to unify all the parties and organizations to the left of the PSOE

[Velasco]

Yolanda Díaz momentum

 "Who is the communist shaking up Spanish politics?"

https://www.thelocal.es/20211120/who-is-the-communist-shaking-up-spanish-politics/

Spain’s rising political star is Communist Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz, who has won over employers and voters and is now trying to carve out a new space on the far left before the next general election.

Little known two years ago, polls show the 50-year-old labour lawyer is Spain’s most highly regarded politician, ahead of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the leaders of conservative parties.

Conservative daily newspaper ABC has called her Spain’s “most powerful female politician” and on Facebook fan pages her supporters dream she will become the nation’s first woman PM.

 

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

[BigSerg]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Despite the media circus, the reality is that Diaz has not improved her party's electoral expectations.
https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1461815568206639111?s=20

[Velasco]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

[BigSerg]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

Can you show us these polls?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

Can you show us these polls?

This is the big poll that the media was talking about all last week in the various discussion shows.

Specifically this question:


Source: http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3340marMT_A.pdf

However when it comes to a head-to-head-to-head-to-etc she comes in 3rd behind Pedro Sanchez & NOTA.

[Continential]

What is the PCE stance on Catalonia/secessionism and if they form a broad front, what parties would they form it with?

[Velasco]

What is the PCE stance on Catalonia/secessionism and if they form a broad front, what parties would they form it with?

The stance of the PCE on Catalonia is presumably the same stance of IU, which is: advocacy for dialog to solve the conflict and for a federal Spain. Podemos stands for the same things and is favourable to hold a referendum on self-determination, despite it doesn't support the seccession of Catalonia

The PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s and is not going to lead the "btoad front" proposed by Yolanda Diaz. IU was founded in 1986,  incorporating the PCE and other organizations and contesting every election until 2015. In the following year (2016) IU merged with Podemos to form Unidas Podenos, which is an electoral coalition. Yolanda Díaz is seeking to incorporate the parties within Unidas Podemos, as well as other parties outside UP (Más País,  Comoromis...) and independents from the "civil society". The idea is to reunify and reformulate all the space to the left of the PSOE, not merely adding parties. Despite being neccessary, Podemos is not going to lead the "broad front" and that loss of protagonism might lead to conflicts or tensions between Díaz and the current Podemoa leadership (neither Ione Belarra nor Irene Montero attended the venue in Valencia). The project of Yolanda Díaz and her candidacy need to be materialized

Besides that project, following the example of Teruel Existe, multiple organizations are assembling a front that represents the "Empty Spain" (Spain's most depopulated provinces), challenging the hegemony PP and PSOE in rural provinces

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-21/el-15-m-rural-desafia-al-psoe-y-al-pp.html

[Former President tack50]

What is the PCE stance on Catalonia/secessionism and if they form a broad front, what parties would they form it with?

Basically the same as Podemos. PCE might be independent nominally, but in practice they'll never run independently of Podemos (or IU for that matter). Especially not nationally.

The so-called broad front is more publicity than anyone else, I doubt any electorally relevant parties join other than (at best): Mas Pais/Mas Madrid, the Teresa Rodriguez led Andalusian regionalists and possibly Compromis

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: En el PP "no caben personalismos", el partido no es de “solistas” ni "una hoguera de las vanidades que no conducen a ninguna parte", "esto no es un talent show de megalomanías".

^{El PP cierra filas con Casado en Andalucía: "Esto no es un 'talent show' de megalomanías" https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2021-11-21/el-pp-cierra-filas-con-casado-en-andalucia_3328119/}

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo y Peralta-Ramos XIV Marquesa de Casa Fuerte, 22 Nov: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo”, ha reflexionado. “Es una vieja trampa de la izquierda confundir la libertad, la personalidad, con la megalomanía para anular al individuo que destaca. Es un camino que no nos conviene recorrer.”

Álvarez de Toledo acaba de publicar un libro que ha incendiado al PP. En Políticamente indeseable (Ediciones B), la ex portavoz parlamentaria describe a Casado como un líder “veleta” y acusa al secretario general, Teodoro García Egea, de hacerle “bullying” [acoso].

^{Álvarez de Toledo responde a Casado: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo” https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-22/alvarez-de-toledo-responde-a-casado-esta-llamando-personalismo-a-la-personalidad-y-divismo-al-liderazgo.html}

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, 22 Nov: "Nadie se va contra nadie, todo se malinterpreta."

^{https://twitter.com/LaHoraTVE/status/1462701266065367043}

[BigSerg]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

Can you show us these polls?

This is the big poll that the media was talking about all last week in the various discussion shows.

Specifically this question:


Source: http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3340marMT_A.pdf

However when it comes to a head-to-head-to-head-to-etc she comes in 3rd behind Pedro Sanchez & NOTA.

CIS... Everything the CIS says is bullsh**t, it is easily the worst pollster in Spain.

[Velasco]

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: En el PP "no caben personalismos", el partido no es de “solistas” ni "una hoguera de las vanidades que no conducen a ninguna parte", "esto no es un talent show de megalomanías".

^{El PP cierra filas con Casado en Andalucía: "Esto no es un 'talent show' de megalomanías" https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2021-11-21/el-pp-cierra-filas-con-casado-en-andalucia_3328119/}

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo y Peralta-Ramos XIV Marquesa de Casa Fuerte, 22 Nov: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo”, ha reflexionado. “Es una vieja trampa de la izquierda confundir la libertad, la personalidad, con la megalomanía para anular al individuo que destaca. Es un camino que no nos conviene recorrer.”

Álvarez de Toledo acaba de publicar un libro que ha incendiado al PP. En Políticamente indeseable (Ediciones B), la ex portavoz parlamentaria describe a Casado como un líder “veleta” y acusa al secretario general, Teodoro García Egea, de hacerle “bullying” [acoso].

^{Álvarez de Toledo responde a Casado: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo” https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-22/alvarez-de-toledo-responde-a-casado-esta-llamando-personalismo-a-la-personalidad-y-divismo-al-liderazgo.html}

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, 22 Nov: "Nadie se va contra nadie, todo se malinterpreta."

^{https://twitter.com/LaHoraTVE/status/1462701266065367043}

If you want to comment about PP internal disputes, please translate

CIS... Everything the CIS says is bullsh**t, it is easily the worst pollster in Spain.

That's not true. If you are talking about vote estimations, I concur they are crappy because Tezanos is a PSOE hack who changed the methodology. However the CIS polls contain valuable raw data that is used by political scientists or election experts to decipher the trends. Yolanda Díaz popularity is rating high for other pollsters as well:

DYM ratings: Yolanda Díaz  4.2, Pedro Sánchez 3.6, Inés Arrimadas 3.6, Pablo Casado 3.4, Santiago Abascal 2.9

According to DYM, 44.7% believe Yolanda Díaz is the best suited to lead that "broad frobt" of the left (85.5% of UP voters, 68.6% of the PSOE voters... 62.9% of the Vox voters!)

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/valoracion-lideres-sondeo-Yolanda-Diaz-preferida-Ayuso-busca-salto_0_1623439341.html

On the other hand, the popularity of political leaders is not neccessarilly related to electoral success. For instance, Adolfo Suárez was rated among the most popular leaders by the CIS during the mid and late 1980s, but the CDS never won an election. Inés Arrimadas and Iñigo Errejón are scoring relatively high in recent polls, but their parties are polling around 3%

[Astatine]

[...]

DYM ratings: Yolanda Díaz  4.2, Pedro Sánchez 3.6, Inés Arrimadas 3.6, Pablo Casado 3.4, Santiago Abascal 2.9

According to DYM, 44.7% believe Yolanda Díaz is the best suited to lead that "broad frobt" of the left (85.5% of UP voters, 68.6% of the PSOE voters... 62.9% of the Vox voters!)

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/valoracion-lideres-sondeo-Yolanda-Diaz-preferida-Ayuso-busca-salto_0_1623439341.html

On the other hand, the popularity of political leaders is not neccessarilly related to electoral success. For instance, Adolfo Suárez was rated among the most popular leaders by the CIS during the mid and late 1980s, but the CDS never won an election. Inés Arrimadas and Iñigo Errejón are scoring relatively high in recent polls, but their parties are polling around 3%

Yeah we all know how that one ended: