Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #350 on: May 07, 2021, 06:33:53 AM »

Doesn't really look like a super reputable pollster to me; and the Mas Pais surge, even as a reaction to the Madrid results, is extremely weird.

It is worth noting though that with the expected death of Cs, now the left and the right are more balanced in terms of how much the electoral system punishes or benefits them. Cs at 2% is less of a drag on the right than when it was at 7-8%. Vox at 16-17% meanwhile is just shy of the point when they are no longer a drag.

Meanwhile on the left UP at 10% is very harmful; and if you believe the MP surge is real, that also hurts the left (although if MP keeps their pledge of running only in provinces with 8 seats or more, it isn't extremely harmful but it does not help)

To be honest, it is extremely early; I would not expect an election up until 2022 at least. But it is definitely possible that Pedro Sanchez ends up as a 1 and a half term president.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #351 on: May 07, 2021, 06:43:59 AM »

Speaking of which, yesterday Sanchez unveiled his Economic Recovery plan to get the EU funds. And it is one of the first government measures where I am radically against something (the plan as a whole is already meh, but the toll roads measure in particular annoys me a lot). It is basically a bunch of tax hikes all bundled together. The main measures seem to be:

>Tax increase on workers earning over 4000€ a month (before taxes, equivalent to 2400€ after tax); by removing the cap on Social Security contributions
>Harmonization of the various taxes on inheritances or wealth
>Removal of the joint filing option for married couples (ends up as a tax hike on couples where one member is a high earner and the other one does not pay or has a very low salary)
> Increase of the vehicle taxes
> Diesel taxes will now be the same as gas
> All highways in Spain to become toll roads

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4687330/0/cotizaciones-irpf-patrimonio-las-subidas-de-impuestos-que-el-gobierno-propone-a-bruselas-en-los-proximos-anos/

Personally I am ok with some measures. Particularly the 1st, 3rd and 4th are decently good measures (not amazing by any means but whatever). However I am against everything else with the plan.

I am actually in favour of inheritance and wealth taxes; but my issue here is that it deeply infringes on the rights of the regions. If Madrid wants to have no inheritance or wealth taxes, that is their problem. (I think Spain should advance towards more federalism, not less)

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh
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« Reply #352 on: May 07, 2021, 06:47:11 AM »

BTW, I tried my hand at a swing map for Madrid using atlas colors. It's for ideological blocs.

2019: Right +4.1
2021: Right +15.7
Swing: Right +11.6



Remember the errors I mentioned before that weren't noticeable in the results map? Well you bet they're now visible here. The deep red precinct in Villa de Vallecas I don't think it's an error though. The precinct is home to Valdemingómez/La Cañada Real, one of the poorest places in Madrid. It has extremely high abstention levels, so it may be why it has weird results.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #353 on: May 07, 2021, 08:00:54 AM »

I guess I do agree with your statements, but I do think that Cs was at least in part a liberal party in the European sense of the word.


For me continental liberal parties have as their origin a general pillar of bourgeois (can be petit or haute bourgeoisie) interests. C's was much more heterogenous in that sense. It had a bunch on intellectual "liberals" (a lot of whom were ex-PP) sure but it never claimed to be an open representative of bourgeois and independent interests. Rivera was running ads of him in tavernas calling out the political class, as a man of the little people. Rutte, FDP, Clegg all never did that.

Quote
Is Rivera's turn to the right any more sharp than say, Macron's?

Yes, absolutely. But that isn't the crucial difference. The difference is that Macron went right out of opportunism, whereas Rivera swung rightwards (although I always maintain that he has always been a right-winger) because he launched an insane bidding war with the two other parties to his right, to the extent that he was literally capable of saying anything to justify some pretty extreme behavior on the Catalan issue and pretty much abandoned his whole social democrat schtick in favour of naked populism.

Rutte actually has values. They are sh**tty ones imo, but he conforms to a more broader set of interests and values of his political family. Put it this way : Rutte is still predictable. Rivera was just waiting to see where the wind blew on a bunch of issue, while pressing hard on the line that Catalanists were "golpistas" (of course because Venezuela is the Godwin's Law of Spanish politics too) because he knew that was the issue that propelled him to center stage in the first place.

Quote
Being "tough on Catalonia" isn't really a social issue in that same way)

But wanting to punish Catalonia and have their dissidents jailed through political means if they were found innocent isn't very liberal either. Rivera was questioning the independence of the judiciary. That isn't very liberal.
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Mike88
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« Reply #354 on: May 07, 2021, 08:24:18 AM »

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

Welcome to the club, my friend. We have that since 2010 and you're still lucky because, from what I read, you will pay only 1 cent per Km. A highway trip between Porto and Viana do Castelo, in the area I live, costs 3,85 euros. Using the Spanish proposal, it would cost just 0,62 euros. I wish we had these prices here.
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Velasco
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« Reply #355 on: May 07, 2021, 10:08:17 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 10:13:00 AM by Velasco »

I guess I do agree with your statements, but I do think that Cs was at least in part a liberal party in the European sense of the word.


For me continental liberal parties have as their origin a general pillar of bourgeois (can be petit or haute bourgeoisie) interests. C's was much more heterogenous in that sense. It had a bunch on intellectual "liberals" (a lot of whom were ex-PP) sure but it never claimed to be an open representative of bourgeois and independent interests. Rivera was running ads of him in tavernas calling out the political class, as a man of the little people. Rutte, FDP, Clegg all never did that.

Quote
Is Rivera's turn to the right any more sharp than say, Macron's?

Yes, absolutely. But that isn't the crucial difference. The difference is that Macron went right out of opportunism, whereas Rivera swung rightwards (although I always maintain that he has always been a right-winger) because he launched an insane bidding war with the two other parties to his right, to the extent that he was literally capable of saying anything to justify some pretty extreme behavior on the Catalan issue and pretty much abandoned his whole social democrat schtick in favour of naked populism.

Rutte actually has values. They are sh**tty ones imo, but he conforms to a more broader set of interests and values of his political family. Put it this way : Rutte is still predictable. Rivera was just waiting to see where the wind blew on a bunch of issue, while pressing hard on the line that Catalanists were "golpistas" (of course because Venezuela is the Godwin's Law of Spanish politics too) because he knew that was the issue that propelled him to center stage in the first place.

Quote
Being "tough on Catalonia" isn't really a social issue in that same way)

But wanting to punish Catalonia and have their dissidents jailed through political means if they were found innocent isn't very liberal either. Rivera was questioning the independence of the judiciary. That isn't very liberal.

Summarized very briefly, my opinion is more coincident with Zinneke,  in the sense that Cs was a personal vehícle for Albert Rivera. The former charismatic leader was always a disguised rightwinger and never a liberal. In the beginning Cs was a project created by some intellectuals and personalities in Catalonia, disgruntled at the Catalanist consensus and the perceived nationalist drive of the PSC under Maragall. The base of support of Cs in Catalonia were inititially former PSC voters identifying themselves more Spaniard than Catalan, hence the party claimed to be socialdemocratic by that time. Albert Rivera, who was extremely young and was briefly a member of the PP Youth, became party leader almost by chance. But once Rivera took over and was successful winning seats in the Catalan parliament,  Cs became gradually his personal project and most of the original founders moved into the background or vanished. Cs was a regional party for many years, focused on the opposition to Catalan nationalism and the linguistic policies implemented by the regional administrations. The crisis of the traditional parties opened a window of opportunity for Cs, which jumped into national politics with the aim of being an alternative for centre-right voters disgruntled at PP's corruption. Cs had important support in business and media outlets, being sometimes labelled "the rightwing Podemos". Eventually the party scrapped the word "socialdemocratic" from its statutes while retaining "liberal". I think the liberalism of Rivera and many Cs leaders is very questionable, leaving aside the staunch advocacy of liberal economic policies. However, I believe there were some genuine liberals or social liberals in Cs, mostly in the faction that was more critic of the final rightwing drive of Rivera. I mean the likes of Toni Roldán or Luis Garicano
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #356 on: May 07, 2021, 05:17:32 PM »

BTW, I tried my hand at a swing map for Madrid using atlas colors. It's for ideological blocs.

2019: Right +4.1
2021: Right +15.7
Swing: Right +11.6


Remember the errors I mentioned before that weren't noticeable in the results map? Well you bet they're now visible here. The deep red precinct in Villa de Vallecas I don't think it's an error though. The precinct is home to Valdemingómez/La Cañada Real, one of the poorest places in Madrid. It has extremely high abstention levels, so it may be why it has weird results.

Regarding Valdemingómez, it is worth noting that MM did some campaigning there, so I guess they managed to mobilize people there to vote for them. Turnout as you denote is abysmal but it did increase by a ton in relative terms (from just under 5% turnout to 13% turnout lol). So I guess MM's campaiging there managed to mobilize Cañada in massive numbers to go out and vote MM (which won the precinct with 40% of the vote)

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mileslunn
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« Reply #357 on: May 07, 2021, 06:07:19 PM »

Speaking of which, yesterday Sanchez unveiled his Economic Recovery plan to get the EU funds. And it is one of the first government measures where I am radically against something (the plan as a whole is already meh, but the toll roads measure in particular annoys me a lot). It is basically a bunch of tax hikes all bundled together. The main measures seem to be:

>Tax increase on workers earning over 4000€ a month (before taxes, equivalent to 2400€ after tax); by removing the cap on Social Security contributions
>Harmonization of the various taxes on inheritances or wealth
>Removal of the joint filing option for married couples (ends up as a tax hike on couples where one member is a high earner and the other one does not pay or has a very low salary)
> Increase of the vehicle taxes
> Diesel taxes will now be the same as gas
> All highways in Spain to become toll roads

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4687330/0/cotizaciones-irpf-patrimonio-las-subidas-de-impuestos-que-el-gobierno-propone-a-bruselas-en-los-proximos-anos/

Personally I am ok with some measures. Particularly the 1st, 3rd and 4th are decently good measures (not amazing by any means but whatever). However I am against everything else with the plan.

I am actually in favour of inheritance and wealth taxes; but my issue here is that it deeply infringes on the rights of the regions. If Madrid wants to have no inheritance or wealth taxes, that is their problem. (I think Spain should advance towards more federalism, not less)

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

What about the earlier promise of income tax hike of 2% on those over 130,000 Euros and 4% over 300K?  They only raised over 300K by 4% and while won't raise a lot of revenue, that might seem an easier sell although I believe Valencian community is popular with British tourists and this would put top rate at 56% so could backfire.  VAT increases I know are political suicide in North America, but in Europe seems public is less opposed to them and they are good revenue raisers.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #358 on: May 07, 2021, 06:58:05 PM »


What about the earlier promise of income tax hike of 2% on those over 130,000 Euros and 4% over 300K?  They only raised over 300K by 4% and while won't raise a lot of revenue, that might seem an easier sell although I believe Valencian community is popular with British tourists and this would put top rate at 56% so could backfire.  VAT increases I know are political suicide in North America, but in Europe seems public is less opposed to them and they are good revenue raisers.

I mean, I guess both would happen. To be precise, the new tax hike is a payroll tax increase while what you are describing seems to be an earlier promise of an income tax hike (IRPF)

A VAT rise, while it would raise a ton of money, would definitely be very unpopular since it would be seen as a "tax hike on everyone" (since everyone pays VAT), while at least these measures can be sold as "tax hikes only on the rich"

I guess we'll see the exact new taxes when the next budget gets passed, if it ever does get passed of course.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #359 on: May 07, 2021, 07:38:32 PM »


What about the earlier promise of income tax hike of 2% on those over 130,000 Euros and 4% over 300K?  They only raised over 300K by 4% and while won't raise a lot of revenue, that might seem an easier sell although I believe Valencian community is popular with British tourists and this would put top rate at 56% so could backfire.  VAT increases I know are political suicide in North America, but in Europe seems public is less opposed to them and they are good revenue raisers.

I mean, I guess both would happen. To be precise, the new tax hike is a payroll tax increase while what you are describing seems to be an earlier promise of an income tax hike (IRPF)

A VAT rise, while it would raise a ton of money, would definitely be very unpopular since it would be seen as a "tax hike on everyone" (since everyone pays VAT), while at least these measures can be sold as "tax hikes only on the rich"

I guess we'll see the exact new taxes when the next budget gets passed, if it ever does get passed of course.

If they do both that might make Spain uncompetitive but probably won't hurt in short term.  My understanding though is cap just raised not eliminated unless misreading.  If that is case, Madrid will have top rate of 53.85% while Valencian community will be 62.35% which is pretty high although Portugal doesn't cap their social security contributions and has similar #'s.

Road tolls on all though I think could be bad politically as while smart policy, never an easy sell.  Higher gas taxes you might be to sell on idea of encouraging action on climate change and hope more switch to electric cars, but only a revenue raiser in the transition part.
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Mike88
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« Reply #360 on: May 08, 2021, 10:16:15 AM »

Another one:

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mileslunn
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« Reply #361 on: May 08, 2021, 07:11:17 PM »

Another one:



It seems collapse of C's really helping right.  Still there is time for things to change nonetheless wouldn't be shocked if right wins in 2023 or sooner if there is an election.  Big problem for right is regionalist parties more likely to support left so may not need to hit 176, but need to be close to it to form government.

Madrid avoided lockdowns and so wondering is that popular?  I know in some countries lockdowns are not popular, but others quite popular and those who push re-opening highly frowned upon as seen as anti-science.
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« Reply #362 on: May 09, 2021, 02:16:25 PM »

The 5th one I am against it, but I can live with it. I do think diesel should be slightly less taxed than gas. An interesting idea imo could be to make this region dependent (so regions with high polution prefer diesel and regions with low polution prefer gasoline)

However the 6th one has to be one of the stupidest ideas I have ever seen. Making all highways in Spain toll roads is beyond stupid and it would almost instantly lose Sanchez reelection. Definitely a horrible idea. (it is worth noting that current gas taxes in Spain are already more than enough to pay for road maintenance; twice over in fact)

Worst part is that that is allegedly an EU demand, WTF?? That makes me even more worried tbh

Welcome to the club, my friend. We have that since 2010 and you're still lucky because, from what I read, you will pay only 1 cent per Km. A highway trip between Porto and Viana do Castelo, in the area I live, costs 3,85 euros. Using the Spanish proposal, it would cost just 0,62 euros. I wish we had these prices here.

Hahaha amateurs. Most of Italy's highways are toll roads and they have been so since, well, forever. And depending on how mountainous and tortuous/convoluted the stretch you are covering is, it can cost up to more than 10 cent per km.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #363 on: May 09, 2021, 07:44:08 PM »

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Mike88
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« Reply #364 on: May 10, 2021, 05:50:13 AM »

And another one:



It's basically clear that the Madrid election results had a national impact.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #365 on: May 10, 2021, 10:54:44 AM »

Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).
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Velasco
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« Reply #366 on: May 10, 2021, 11:11:01 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2021, 12:52:08 PM by Velasco »

It's basically clear that the Madrid election results had a national impact.

Sure. The question is whether this impact is permanent or short-living. Remember the PP nearly disappears in Catalonia less than three months ago, while it had a disastrous performance past year in Basque Country on the same date it won Galicia in a landslide.  I mean, the political cycles are incredibly short living these days. On rhe other hand, the extreme weakness of the PP in Catalonia and Basque Country is a burden that makes difficult a right-wing victory in general elections which, in case it happens,  would have serious consequences. I have little doubt a PP-Vox victory would jeopardize Spain's unity, as right-wing populism is jeopardizing UK's continuity in a different context marked by Brexit. Nowadays the PSOE is the only national party able to keep Spain together. But it's obvious the result in Madrid, besides a more extreme polarization triggered by the right and a possible challenge by Susana Díaz in Andalusia,  could create serious problems to Pedro Sánchez. Socialists should resist while analyzing the causes of the last bad result (pandemic weariness? right-wing cultural hegemony?). But there's no time because,  as I said earlier, the political cycles are increasingly shorter and there is a huge crisis going on. The future does not look bright for the country and the world as a whole, but maybe there's some recovery on the horizon and that helps the government. It's hard to predict 2023 now in 2021
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« Reply #367 on: May 10, 2021, 12:41:35 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2021, 12:49:08 PM by Just the facts »

Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).

I might be a bit cynical, but in my view Spain (and in particular the Spanish sociological right) has a fairly strong element of American-style "muh freedom", not as political doctrine but as socially respectable sociopathy.

Ayuso cunningly made regional identity politics out of that streak.

She also spent the pandemic accusing the central government of discriminating against Madrid, even accusing them of "giving away Madrid's vaccines to Andorra".
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« Reply #368 on: May 10, 2021, 02:04:12 PM »
« Edited: May 11, 2021, 12:53:42 PM by Velasco »

I
Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).

I might be a bit cynical, but in my view Spain (and in particular the Spanish sociological right) has a fairly strong element of American-style "muh freedom", not as political doctrine but as socially respectable sociopathy.

Ayuso cunningly made regional identity politics out of that streak.

She also spent the pandemic accusing the central government of discriminating against Madrid, even accusing them of "giving away Madrid's vaccines to Andorra".


I could aay say the model implemented by the right during the last 26 years in Madrid favors exacerbated individualism over social responsibility, but maybe I'm speaking like a tertuliano or an amateur sociologist. The fact is that Ayuso campaigned on a peculiar identity associated to Madrid,  based on the idea that freedom consists in low taxes (for the rich), go shopping whenever you please and drink beer in terraces. The Ayuso's slogan "communism or freedom" was incredibly simple and childish, but results prove it was extremely effective. I heard to some analysts and tertulianos that replying that slogan with "fascism or democracy" was a mistake,  because in doing so the left entered in the conceptual framework established by the right.  In the same way, the campaign of Ángel Gabilondo promised not to raise taxes, instead of campaigning on a fair tax system that funds decent public services for the people of Madrid.  The disturbing events involving hate speech, mails with bullets or the far-right candidate Monasterio ordering Iglesias to leave Spain have not created social alarm on the danger posed by fascism or neofascism. The only strategy that worked to some degree was the Más Madrid campaign, which avoided explicitly these clashes and focused on public services and the idea of a community ruled by empathy and solidarity.

 But Ayuso's idea of freedom won in a landslide and one could reach some pessinistic conclusions about society looking at past weekend, when lockdown was lifted in Madrid and some drunken youngsters told the TV reporters they were celebrating "a la madrileña", because they live in Ayuso's freedom kingdom. Possibly that's an undesired consequence and I'm not demonizing all youngsters as irresponsible (I got drunk more than once and my favorite party is popular in that demographic group).  I just say there is a certain idea of freedom associated to selfishness that is getting popular. Also, it's undeniable that all of us are weary of lockdowns and restrictions and can no longer wait the return of a certain normalcy (including the freedom to get drunk). It seems that people in Madrid voted for normalcy at any cost, regardless pandemic figures are still bad.

On a side note, some friends of mine who are sympathizers believe the intolerable harassment to Pablo Iglesias and his demonization by the right played a role in the modest UP results, downgrading the relative success of MM. I think the latter is unfair, while the former is true in what concerns harassment and hope that haters leave Iglesias alone for once and all
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« Reply #369 on: May 10, 2021, 02:05:02 PM »

If we are to assume the government lasts until 2023 (which imo is generous, I expect an election some time in early 2022), pretty much anything can change.

Remember this was polling just 1 year before the April 2019 election (April 2018)



I agree with Velasco that trying to predict the next general election now is doomed to fail. But this is not a good indicator for Sanchez (it is already a decent comeback that he won in 2019 at all; most were predicting a right wing government through much of 2018 iirc)
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« Reply #370 on: May 10, 2021, 02:14:58 PM »

If we are to assume the government lasts until 2023 (which imo is generous, I expect an election some time in early 2022), pretty much anything can change.

Remember this was polling just 1 year before the April 2019 election (April 2018)



I agree with Velasco that trying to predict the next general election now is doomed to fail. But this is not a good indicator for Sanchez (it is already a decent comeback that he won in 2019 at all; most were predicting a right wing government through much of 2018 iirc)

Why would it go early though?  PSOE and UP have no reason to and other smaller parties aren't either as regionalist may have issues with government, but idea of a PP-Vox probably scares them.  Never mind C's may want current government gone, but they are on track to get wiped out and lose almost all their seats so yes could be an election next year, but I don't think lasting until 2023 is quite as far fetched as some think considering only PP and Vox have strong incentives for early ones.
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« Reply #371 on: May 10, 2021, 02:20:38 PM »

I
Are lockdowns very unpopular in Spain?  Madrid stayed open which some are saying helped PP yet Madrid has one of the worst infection rates?  Is Spain more a culture that puts freedom first or public health as some places lockdowns are quite popular (no one likes them but many see re-opening too soon as reckless).

I might be a bit cynical, but in my view Spain (and in particular the Spanish sociological right) has a fairly strong element of American-style "muh freedom", not as political doctrine but as socially respectable sociopathy.

Ayuso cunningly made regional identity politics out of that streak.

She also spent the pandemic accusing the central government of discriminating against Madrid, even accusing them of "giving away Madrid's vaccines to Andorra".


I could aay say the model implemented by the right during the last 26 years in Madrid favors exacerbated individualism over social responsibility, but maybe I'm speaking like a tertuliano or an amateur sociologist. The fact is that Ayuso campaigned on a peculiar identity associated to Madrid,  based on the idea that freedom consists in low taxes (for the rich), go shopping whenever you please and drink beer in terraces. The Ayuso's slogan "communism or freedom" was incredibly simple and childish, but results prove it was extremely effective. I heard to some analysts and tertulianos that replying that slogan with "fascism or democracy" was a mistake,  because in doing so the left entered in the conceptual mark established by the right.  In the same way, the campaign of Ángel Gabilondo promised not to raise taxes, onstead of campaigning on a fair tax system that funds decent public services for the people of Madrid.  The disturbing events involving hate speech, mails with bullets or the far-right candidate Monasterio ordering Iglesias to leave Spain have not created social alarm on the danger posed by fascism or neofascism. The only strategy that worked to some degree was the Más Madrid campaign, which avoided explicitly these clashes and focused on public services and the idea of a community ruled by empathy and solidarity.

 But Ayuso's idea of freedom won in a landslide and one could reach some pessinistic conclusions about society looking at past weekend, when lockdown was lifted in Madrid and some drunken youngsters told the TV reporters they were celebrating "a la madrileña", because they live in Ayuso's freedom kingdom. Possibly that's an undesired consequence and I'm not demonizing all youngsters as irresponsible (I got drunk more than once and my favorite party is popular in that demographic group).  I just say there is a certain idea of freedom associated to selfishness that is getting popular. Also, it's undeniable that all of us are weary of lockdowns and restrictions and can no longer wait the return of a certain normalcy (including the freedom to get drunk). It seems that people in Madrid voted for normalcy at any cost, regardless pandemic figures are still bad.

On a side note, some friends of mine who are sympathizers believe the intolerable harassment to Pablo Iglesias and his demonization by the right played a role in the modest UP results, downgrading the relative success of MM. I think the latter is unfair, while the former is true in what concerns harassment and hope that haters leave Iglesias alone for once and all

Sort of reminds me of US where a lot take this mentality.  Where I live in Canada, a minority do but it is highly frowned upon and living right next door to US there is a general view here unlimited freedom just creates more problems.  Interesting PSOE opposed tax hikes on rich as Madrid's top rate is still lower so raising it from 45.5% to say 47% would still keep it quite competitive.  I could see maybe in higher taxed autonomous communities like Catalonia or Valencian Community PSOE being against tax hikes on rich as they do risk becoming uncompetitive if moved any higher but Madrid could easily raise a few points on top earners and still remain quite competitive.  In some places soak the rich sells well, but Madrid considering the benefit from many live there maybe doesn't, not familiar.  

Most countries have more conservative areas but just looking across G7, not sure South of England outside London or Bavaria this attitude is common.  Maybe Lombardy and Veneto in Italy, they seem a lot like Madrid.  In US, too many places I won't bother naming them have this mentality.  In Canada, Alberta does in some ways although signs that is beginning to change, but certainly in rural parts the mentality of freedom ahead of everything else still very prevalent.  
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Just the facts
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« Reply #372 on: May 10, 2021, 02:37:13 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2021, 02:42:57 PM by Just the facts »

I heard to some analysts and tertulianos that replying that slogan with "fascism or democracy" was a mistake,  because in doing so the left entered in the conceptual mark established by the right.  In the same way, the campaign of Ángel Gabilondo promised not to raise taxes, onstead of campaigning on a fair tax system that funds decent public services for the people of Madrid.  The disturbing events involving hate speech, mails with bullets or the far-right candidate Monasterio ordering Iglesias to leave Spain have not created social alarm on the danger posed by fascism or neofascism. The only strategy that worked to some degree was the Más Madrid campaign, which avoided explicitly these clashes and focused on public services and the idea of a community ruled by empathy and solidarity.

Podemos replied to the Freedom vs Communism narrative doing what they feel more comfortable doing - Commie LARPing and Civil War reenactment - hence playing into their hands (where's Neurona when you need them?).

On the other hand, the Right set the Overton window all the way back to the days of anti-communist witch hunts, to the point where the very of idea discussing real problems as opposed to empty anti-communist grandstanding was suspect of Communism, so I guess there's little the Left as a whole could do.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #373 on: May 10, 2021, 03:01:41 PM »

If we are to assume the government lasts until 2023 (which imo is generous, I expect an election some time in early 2022), pretty much anything can change.

Remember this was polling just 1 year before the April 2019 election (April 2018)



I agree with Velasco that trying to predict the next general election now is doomed to fail. But this is not a good indicator for Sanchez (it is already a decent comeback that he won in 2019 at all; most were predicting a right wing government through much of 2018 iirc)

Why would it go early though?  PSOE and UP have no reason to and other smaller parties aren't either as regionalist may have issues with government, but idea of a PP-Vox probably scares them.  Never mind C's may want current government gone, but they are on track to get wiped out and lose almost all their seats so yes could be an election next year, but I don't think lasting until 2023 is quite as far fetched as some think considering only PP and Vox have strong incentives for early ones.

My guess is ERC throwing out the government by refusing to vote for a budget, out of a calculus that a PP-Vox government will grow pro-independence sentiments in Catalonia.

I guess Sanchez could switch to like PSOE-UP-Cs-PNV but still. However you are right that it is also possible Sanchez survives and if there is a strong economic recovery (relatively big if) his polling numbers will go back up
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« Reply #374 on: May 11, 2021, 02:20:20 PM »

My guess is ERC throwing out the government by refusing to vote for a budget, out of a calculus that a PP-Vox government will grow pro-independence sentiments in Catalonia.


I doubt ERC will follow the wreaking havoc at all costs policy, perfectly encapsulated in Mariano Rajoy’s “cuanto peor para todos, mejor” (the worse for everyone, the better) pearl of wisdom. That is a pathway to independence espoused by the sect of Puigdemontology, also known as Junts.

In contrast, Republicans have been following a moderate conciliatory stance for some time now, which involves negotiating legislation with the PSOE-UP coalition in Madrid and pursuing channels of communication with the state to resolve the Catalan question. The public objective of this is to achieve self-determination through dialogue, the private objective (IMO) is to defuse the conflict in order to prepare for the next big push for independence. While being rhetorically harsh, ERC doesn’t show any signs of changing this strategy. In fact, throughout post-regional election government formation negotiations, it has refused attempts by the Witnesses of Puigdemont (sorry, Junts) to impose a joint separatist voting line in the Congress of Deputies, which would block any ERC overtures to Pedro Sánchez.

And, even if ERC does end up changing its mind and the government fails to pass the next budget, it could always govern without one until 2023. After all, the 2018 PP budget lasted until 2021 without major hindrance.
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