1976: President Nelson Rockefeller vs. Jimmy Carter (Ford assassinated)

[Alben Barkley]

This scenario supposes one of the two assassination attempts against Gerald Ford in September 1975 by female assailants (one of the weirdest coincidences in US history) is successful. As VP at the time, Nelson Rockefeller assumes the presidency. Like Ford actually did, Rockefeller defeats Reagan for the Republican nomination in 1976, but is compelled to choose a conservative as his running mate: Probably either Bob Dole or Reagan himself.

How does this change the 1976 election? Rockefeller would likely have some sympathy vote going for him due to Ford’s death, and may have done better in the Northeast (perhaps even winning New York). But as liberal as he was, and as unenthusiastic about him as the GOP base likely is, he probably does even worse in the South and possibly elsewhere. I could see anything from an even closer election to a comfortable win for either candidate.

[President Johnson]

President Rockefeller would have won with ease. An incumbent who got in office by an assassin's bullet just over a year before the election is very hard to beat, and I have little doubt Rockefeller would have governed pretty effectively. He may have bled support from conservatives, but he would have attracted a lot of crossover appeal and support from the African American community.

However, Rockefeller would have died in office himself, as he passed away in 1979. I think his successor would have lost in 1980 then.



✓ President Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Vice President Howard Baker (R-TN): 372 EV. (52.86%)
Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN): 166 EV. (46.19%)

[Spark]

[Alben Barkley]

President Rockefeller would have won with ease. An incumbent who got in office by an assassin's bullet just over a year before the election is very hard to beat, and I have little doubt Rockefeller would have governed pretty effectively. He may have bled support from conservatives, but he would have attracted a lot of crossover appeal and support from the African American community.

However, Rockefeller would have died in office himself, as he passed away in 1979. I think his successor would have lost in 1980 then.



✓ President Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Vice President Howard Baker (R-TN): 372 EV. (52.86%)
Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN): 166 EV. (46.19%)

Not an unreasonable map, though I’m not sure Rockefeller would have won TN even with Baker as his running mate.

As for his dying in 1979, that actually could be butterflied away in this timeline. Rockefeller died of a heart attack while in an... intimate moment with his young mistress. Maybe that doesn’t happen in this timeline?

[(no subject)]

Carson remarked that he could get audience laughter just by saying Megan Marshak.

[Asenath Waite]

Why does Carter win vt, think Rocky's wealth would be a turn off?