If Trump runs 3rd party, who will get more votes?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who gets more votes in a 3-way race with Trump? Trump or the GOP nominee?

[NYDem]

Trump, easily. It wouldn't even be close. He would take at least 60% of the total Republican vote.

[kwabbit]

I'm guessing Trump. If the election is really a Biden/Harris vs. GOP vs. Trump, it wouldn't be a 50/25/25 breakdown. Either Trump or the GOP candidate would have most of the right coalesce around them. I think Trump would probably be the one to benefit from that, with the GOP maybe getting 10% from the old 2016 Never-Trumpers and other anti-Trump voters within the GOP.

The breakdown might be something like 49 Biden/39 Trump/10 Romney, Haley, etc./2 other third parties.

[boltzy_]

It's a rather hackneyed comparison to make, but if Trump ran third party, the electoral map (and popular vote) would resemble 1912. Trump would win a bulk of the deep Republican states (WV, AL, WY, etc.) and the mainstream Republican would be lucky to win maybe UT (like Taft in 1912). It's hard for me to imagine them winning any other state. Trump would probably get about a third of the vote and the Republican one fourth. The Dem would, in all likelihood, win just about every other state and the remainder of the popular vote.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It's a rather hackneyed comparison to make, but if Trump ran third party, the electoral map (and popular vote) would resemble 1912. Trump would win a bulk of the deep Republican states (WV, AL, WY, etc.) and the mainstream Republican would be lucky to win maybe UT (like Taft in 1912). It's hard for me to imagine them winning any other state. Trump would probably get about a third of the vote and the Republican one fourth. The Dem would, in all likelihood, win just about every other state and the remainder of the popular vote.

Basically this. AOC could be a good Debs analogue, but I don’t see her doing it unless Biden really screws up. I don’t think she’d run against Harris.

[DaleCooper]

It's a rather hackneyed comparison to make, but if Trump ran third party, the electoral map (and popular vote) would resemble 1912. Trump would win a bulk of the deep Republican states (WV, AL, WY, etc.) and the mainstream Republican would be lucky to win maybe UT (like Taft in 1912). It's hard for me to imagine them winning any other state. Trump would probably get about a third of the vote and the Republican one fourth. The Dem would, in all likelihood, win just about every other state and the remainder of the popular vote.

Basically this. AOC could be a good Debs analogue, but I don’t see her doing it unless Biden really screws up. I don’t think she’d run against Harris.

I don't think anyone credible will ever run third-party on the left any time soon. Being a spoiler completely destroys their reputations and any shot at a future in politics.

[DaleCooper]

As for the question of this thread, I actually think it would depend on why he wasn't the Republican nominee. As unlikely as it sounds, I'm not ruling out that a new rising star can come out of nowhere, build some national credibility with the base over the next two years while Trump has little public platform, and beat Trump in a primary, if only barely. If that happens then I think you'd see a lot of GOP animosity towards Trump if he tried to run third party and he'd probably only do, at best, as well as Perot in 92 and that's very optimistic for him.

Again, that's very unlikely but I don't think it's impossible.

[Mr. Morden]

It depends on what conservative media organs (Fox News, OANN, talk radio hosts, etc.) decide to do.

[tanairi8]

Depends how much influence Trump still has.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It is vastly more likely that in 2024 we see Trump as the Republican nominee and someone like Romney or Amash running as a third-party candidate against him than it is that Trump would be a third-party candidate himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, after Insurrectionists, Trump isn't gonna be Prez, Asa Hutchinson said Trump shouldn't be Prez, but he would be a gift to Biden just like Josh Mandel would to Tim Ryan should he run, it will be a landslide

Especially, in a Biden recovery, Biden has a 56 approval and we coming out of Covid

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump could of spoke up in for the Covid victims yesterday, but he refused do so while every Politician in DC are mourning the loss of Covid victims


While WC females are nurses and Minorities are in Nursing Homes due to loved ones can't properly take on their family.

This is of course the Trump party in FL, where DeSantis mourns the loss of Rush Limbaugh, rightfully so, and he wants to be Prez, he must be stopped by Val Deming's and C Crist running statewide

Anyone can lose

[Galeel]

None of this Trump 3rd party discussion ever seems to talk about why he would even run 3rd party in the first place. He could easily win the GOP nomination, so why not just do that? To actually get him running 3rd party I think requires a lot of extra circumstances which complicate this question a lot.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump would get 65-70% of the GOP vote. Make no mistake, Trump is the king of the GOP.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

it'd basically be like CO 2010 Gov but nationwide.

[Real Texan Politics]

Here's my map. South Carolina is a pure tossup since I can't decide whether to give it to Haley or Harris. Either way it's a 400+ vote Harris landslide unless maybe Trump wins Iowa and/or Ohio as well?

My picks for Missouri and Indiana may be a tad bit controversial too, and possibly Oklahoma as well....

As for running mates....maybe Josh Hawley for Trump, Mitt Romney for Haley, and Beto O'Rourke or Gretchen Whitmer for Harris?