Nearly 19k Pennsylvania voters have left the GOP since the Capitol attack
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  Nearly 19k Pennsylvania voters have left the GOP since the Capitol attack
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Author Topic: Nearly 19k Pennsylvania voters have left the GOP since the Capitol attack  (Read 1156 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: February 22, 2021, 10:36:38 AM »

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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2021, 10:44:08 AM »
« Edited: February 22, 2021, 10:49:10 AM by StateBoiler »

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/11/new-pennsylvania-registration-data-2/

Quote
Pennsylvania Elections Department has released the first registration totals for any minor parties since February 2020. The new figures are: Democratic 4,075,927; Republican 3,458,241; Libertarian 46,037; Green 10,240; independent and miscellaneous 1,222,818.

The percentages are: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 39.24%; Libertarian .52%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.87%.

In February 2020, the percentages were: Democratic 47.45%; Republican 38.19%; Libertarian .47%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.77%.

The 2021 registration numbers above are as of February 1st I think.

As a longtime reader of Ballot Access News which has always reported these numbers when they are released, I'm amused by the media's and this message board's sudden interest in politcal party registration as well as how they only report one side of it. We're completely ignoring how over 1 year the Democrats are down more than 1% and the Republicans are up more than 1%.

People on this board I expect to be one-eyed, journalists however should be held to a higher standard. I might be in the mood to call journalists out for being water carriers.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2021, 10:44:37 AM »

A similar pattern was witnessed in AZ. Whether it will have an impact on the 2024 elections remains very questionable imho. That said, the GOP and Trump are working overtime to make the changes in the suburbs permanent. Whether they can add and turn out other voters, mostly previous non-voters, on their rolls remains to be seen.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2021, 10:51:24 AM »

You're right, a similar pattern was seen in Arizona. Republicans up and Democrats down.

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/17/new-arizona-registration-data-11/

Quote
The Arizona Secretary of State has posted registration data for January 2, 2021. See it here. The website does not show the Green Party, but it has 4,226 registrants.

The percentages are: Republican 35.36%; Democratic 32.10%; Libertarian .89%; Green .10%; other and independent 31.55%.

Percentages in August 2020 were: Republican 34.84%; Democratic 32.41%; Libertarian .83%; Green .11%; other and independent 31.80%.

It's amusing how many people on this board are so full of sh**t.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2021, 10:52:35 AM »

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/11/new-pennsylvania-registration-data-2/

Quote
Pennsylvania Elections Department has released the first registration totals for any minor parties since February 2020. The new figures are: Democratic 4,075,927; Republican 3,458,241; Libertarian 46,037; Green 10,240; independent and miscellaneous 1,222,818.

The percentages are: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 39.24%; Libertarian .52%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.87%.

In February 2020, the percentages were: Democratic 47.45%; Republican 38.19%; Libertarian .47%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.77%.

The 2021 registration numbers above are as of February 1st I think.

As a longtime reader of Ballot Access News which has always reported these numbers when they are released, I'm amused by the media's and this message board's sudden interest in politcal party registration as well as how they only report one side of it. We're completely ignoring how over 1 year the Democrats are down more than 1% and the Republicans are up more than 1%.

People on this board I expect to be one-eyed, journalists however should be held to a higher standard. I might be in the mood to call journalists out for being water carriers.

If you read the article, it's all based on data. It's just going off of the normal trends. The data says there IS more of a switch off than usual, and it compares numerous years past. General registration trends are still going on in PA, but the fact that are so many *switchers* is notable
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2021, 10:54:43 AM »

That being said, I've been tracking PA data by congressional district. Here is what the #s are now, compared to right before the election (Oct 20, 2020):

PA-01
10/20/20: Dems 234,272 / Reps 218,515 (Dems +15,757)
2/16/21: Dems 234,863 / Reps 218,307 (Dems +16,556)

PA-04
10/20/20: Dems 260,348 / Reps 189,063 (Dems +71,285)
2/21: Dems 255,882 / Reps 184,451 (Dems +71,431)

PA-05
10/20/20: Dems 283,037 / Reps 176,292 (Dems +106,745)
2/16/21: Dems 272,656 / Reps 169,113 (Dems +103,543)

PA-06
10/20/20: Dems 223,003 / Reps 196,998 (Dems +26,005)
2/16/21: Dems 216,173 / Reps 190,780 (Dems +25,393)

PA-07
10/20/20: Dems 239,549 / Reps 178,524 (Dems +61,025)
2/16/21: Dems 230,608 / Reps 173,799 (Dems +56,809)

PA-08
10/20/20: Dems 238,686 / Reps 179,685 (Dems +59,001)
2/16/21: Dems 234,320 / Reps 178,354 (Dems +55,966)

PA-10
10/20/20: Dems 210,193 / Reps 232,174 (Reps +21,981)
2/16/21: Dems 205,752 / Reps 227,897 (Reps +22,145)

PA-16
10/20/20: Dems 200,817 / Reps 221,207 (Reps +20,390)
2/16/21: Dems 186,542 / Reps 214,565 (Reps +28,023)

PA-17
10/20/20: Dems 261,288 / Reps 199,037 (Dems +62,251)
2/16/21: Dems 257,383 / Reps 196,309 (Dems +61,074)

#s kind of seem funky in general, b/c it also seems like there was a major purging of the voter rolls or something, with many districts losing up to or more than 10,000 voters.

But like we've talked about before, the *overall* trend of PA makes sense. Dems are still up 600K because there is still Reps who are registered as Dems. That gap is going to increasingly shrink, but it doesn't mean the dynamic of the state is really changing from where it's been going. People are just making their registration what they've identified as for a while now.

Which makes it the more interesting that there is more REP>INDIE or REP>DEM switchers right now than DEM>REP, which is what the article is pointing out
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2021, 11:00:49 AM »

Party registration is a lagging indicator so I treat it with a grain of salt. In the case of the Capitol attack, even more so: the lion's share of the spike could plausibly be accounted for by disgusted Romney-Clinton-Biden voters feeling compelled to do something political after the Capitol attack
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UncleSam
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2021, 11:00:57 AM »

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/11/new-pennsylvania-registration-data-2/

Quote
Pennsylvania Elections Department has released the first registration totals for any minor parties since February 2020. The new figures are: Democratic 4,075,927; Republican 3,458,241; Libertarian 46,037; Green 10,240; independent and miscellaneous 1,222,818.

The percentages are: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 39.24%; Libertarian .52%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.87%.

In February 2020, the percentages were: Democratic 47.45%; Republican 38.19%; Libertarian .47%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.77%.

The 2021 registration numbers above are as of February 1st I think.

As a longtime reader of Ballot Access News which has always reported these numbers when they are released, I'm amused by the media's and this message board's sudden interest in politcal party registration as well as how they only report one side of it. We're completely ignoring how over 1 year the Democrats are down more than 1% and the Republicans are up more than 1%.

People on this board I expect to be one-eyed, journalists however should be held to a higher standard. I might be in the mood to call journalists out for being water carriers.

If you read the article, it's all based on data. It's just going off of the normal trends. The data says there IS more of a switch off than usual, and it compares numerous years past. General registration trends are still going on in PA, but the fact that are so many *switchers* is notable
Right but what StateBoiler is saying is that this change is not particularly relevant. If over merely the last year Rs are up and Ds are down even after accounting for this effect, then why wasn’t the story ever about Rs gaining in PA?

Yes the capital riots had an impact on this, but clearly it was a small one and most likely many of those switching were voting for Biden already.

I do think the riots had a decent impact, actually, but it can’t be measured by voter registration changes of this kind - this magnitude of change is not really notable or worth a news article. What would be more interesting would be to see how independent registrants changed their opinions on the parties pre- and post-riot - I’ll bet that would give actual good news to Ds whereas these numbers are honestly basically a mirage.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2021, 11:03:07 AM »

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/11/new-pennsylvania-registration-data-2/

Quote
Pennsylvania Elections Department has released the first registration totals for any minor parties since February 2020. The new figures are: Democratic 4,075,927; Republican 3,458,241; Libertarian 46,037; Green 10,240; independent and miscellaneous 1,222,818.

The percentages are: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 39.24%; Libertarian .52%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.87%.

In February 2020, the percentages were: Democratic 47.45%; Republican 38.19%; Libertarian .47%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.77%.

The 2021 registration numbers above are as of February 1st I think.

As a longtime reader of Ballot Access News which has always reported these numbers when they are released, I'm amused by the media's and this message board's sudden interest in politcal party registration as well as how they only report one side of it. We're completely ignoring how over 1 year the Democrats are down more than 1% and the Republicans are up more than 1%.

People on this board I expect to be one-eyed, journalists however should be held to a higher standard. I might be in the mood to call journalists out for being water carriers.

If you read the article, it's all based on data. It's just going off of the normal trends. The data says there IS more of a switch off than usual, and it compares numerous years past. General registration trends are still going on in PA, but the fact that are so many *switchers* is notable

So the state is voluntarily releasing mid-term updates in party registration where their previous update was a year prior (from February 2020 to February 2021)? Bullsh**t. Again, Richard Winger at Ballot Access News has recorded this data whenever it was released by states going back to when Clinton was president. States don't release this information on a weekly basis. The most often it is done by most states that practice party registration is quarterly.

If it's its own thing and a journalist is using his or her own time to tabulate these numbers, that is prime example A of gaslighting and a journalist that is likely being paid by someone to push a narrrative. Because if party registration is an item of public interest, then why the f*#k were they not items of public interest that was never reported on by this journalist or anyone else for the past 25 years? And you know what all those party registration statistics have pretty consistently looked like? Democrats almost always down, Republican either even, up, or a small number down. Independents always up. Third parties even to small amount up. That the only time that they have ever decided to report on party registration statistics is NOW, you are the most partisan bullsh**t journalist ever! Why didn't they report on party registration statistics back over the life of Obama as president and their numbers went nowhere but down? Again, Richard Winger has published these statistics at http://www.ballot-access.org since the 1990s, it's not like they're some state secret. Did they not report these numbers from 2008 to 2016 because it went counter to a narrative they wanted to spread? Don't even attempt an argument otherwise, I'm laughing at the prospect of anyone attempting an argument because this is the easiest argument for me to win ever.
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StateBoiler
fe234
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2021, 11:20:17 AM »
« Edited: February 22, 2021, 11:27:42 AM by StateBoiler »

November 2016 and May 2017 registration numbers from Pennsylvania:

http://ballot-access.org/2017/05/18/new-pennsylvania-registration-data/

Quote
The Pennsylvania Department of State has released a voter registration tally for the May 2017 primary, which was held earlier this week. The percentages are: Democratic 47.94%; Republican 38.29%; Libertarian .55%; Green .15%; other and independent 13.08%.

In November 2016, the percentages were: Democratic 48.34%; Republican 37.85%; Libertarian .56%; Green .16%; other and independent 13.09%. Thanks to Michael for the link.

So here's the change from November 2016 - month of Trump's election - to February 2021:

Democrats down 2.09%
Republicans up 1.39%
Libertarians down 0.04%
Greens down 0.04%
Independent/Miscellaneous up 0.78%

Did the Inquirer or Billy Penn ever report on this?

But here, I'll give ole Billy a pass. All he has to do is every 90 days or however often the state of Pennsylvania updates their data, he just reports how many Democrats have left the state party as well as Republicans joining or leaving. That would be what an independent unbiased journalist would do in light of publishing this.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2021, 11:24:25 AM »

November 2016 and May 2017 registration numbers from Pennsylvania:

http://ballot-access.org/2017/05/18/new-pennsylvania-registration-data/

Quote
The Pennsylvania Department of State has released a voter registration tally for the May 2017 primary, which was held earlier this week. The percentages are: Democratic 47.94%; Republican 38.29%; Libertarian .55%; Green .15%; other and independent 13.08%.

In November 2016, the percentages were: Democratic 48.34%; Republican 37.85%; Libertarian .56%; Green .16%; other and independent 13.09%. Thanks to Michael for the link.

So here's the change from November 2016 - month of Trump's election - to February 2021:

Democrats down 2.09%
Republicans up 1.39%
Libertarians down 0.04%
Greens down 0.04%
Independent/Miscellaneous up 0.78%

Did the Inquirer or Billy Penn ever report this?

The continuation of a trend at a similar rate is not very newsworthy and there has been plenty of coverage on the gradual realignment. Take this, for instance:


A spike in the opposite direction looks like a bigger disruption and makes for more clicks, although I personally believe it's less likely to represent a long-term shift in political sentiment.

I suppose this is akin to a recession getting more news coverage than a slower continuation of a long-term upward trend in GDP.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2021, 11:26:34 AM »

Most likely Clinton/Dem 2018/ Biden Republican voters who saw it as the last straw.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2021, 11:33:13 AM »

That being said, I've been tracking PA data by congressional district. Here is what the #s are now, compared to right before the election (Oct 20, 2020):

PA-01
10/20/20: Dems 234,272 / Reps 218,515 (Dems +15,757)
2/16/21: Dems 234,863 / Reps 218,307 (Dems +16,556)

PA-04
10/20/20: Dems 260,348 / Reps 189,063 (Dems +71,285)
2/21: Dems 255,882 / Reps 184,451 (Dems +71,431)

PA-05
10/20/20: Dems 283,037 / Reps 176,292 (Dems +106,745)
2/16/21: Dems 272,656 / Reps 169,113 (Dems +103,543)

PA-06
10/20/20: Dems 223,003 / Reps 196,998 (Dems +26,005)
2/16/21: Dems 216,173 / Reps 190,780 (Dems +25,393)

PA-07
10/20/20: Dems 239,549 / Reps 178,524 (Dems +61,025)
2/16/21: Dems 230,608 / Reps 173,799 (Dems +56,809)

PA-08
10/20/20: Dems 238,686 / Reps 179,685 (Dems +59,001)
2/16/21: Dems 234,320 / Reps 178,354 (Dems +55,966)

PA-10
10/20/20: Dems 210,193 / Reps 232,174 (Reps +21,981)
2/16/21: Dems 205,752 / Reps 227,897 (Reps +22,145)

PA-16
10/20/20: Dems 200,817 / Reps 221,207 (Reps +20,390)
2/16/21: Dems 186,542 / Reps 214,565 (Reps +28,023)

PA-17
10/20/20: Dems 261,288 / Reps 199,037 (Dems +62,251)
2/16/21: Dems 257,383 / Reps 196,309 (Dems +61,074)

#s kind of seem funky in general, b/c it also seems like there was a major purging of the voter rolls or something, with many districts losing up to or more than 10,000 voters.

But like we've talked about before, the *overall* trend of PA makes sense. Dems are still up 600K because there is still Reps who are registered as Dems. That gap is going to increasingly shrink, but it doesn't mean the dynamic of the state is really changing from where it's been going. People are just making their registration what they've identified as for a while now.

Which makes it the more interesting that there is more REP>INDIE or REP>DEM switchers right now than DEM>REP, which is what the article is pointing out

This is awesome. Do you have numbers for PA-11?
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2021, 11:35:25 AM »

November 2016 and May 2017 registration numbers from Pennsylvania:

http://ballot-access.org/2017/05/18/new-pennsylvania-registration-data/

Quote
The Pennsylvania Department of State has released a voter registration tally for the May 2017 primary, which was held earlier this week. The percentages are: Democratic 47.94%; Republican 38.29%; Libertarian .55%; Green .15%; other and independent 13.08%.

In November 2016, the percentages were: Democratic 48.34%; Republican 37.85%; Libertarian .56%; Green .16%; other and independent 13.09%. Thanks to Michael for the link.

So here's the change from November 2016 - month of Trump's election - to February 2021:

Democrats down 2.09%
Republicans up 1.39%
Libertarians down 0.04%
Greens down 0.04%
Independent/Miscellaneous up 0.78%

Did the Inquirer or Billy Penn ever report this?

The continuation of a trend at a similar rate is not very newsworthy and there has been plenty of coverage on the gradual realignment. Take this, for instance:


A spike in the opposite direction looks like a bigger disruption and makes for more clicks, although I personally believe it's less likely to represent a long-term shift in political sentiment.

I suppose this is akin to a recession getting more news coverage than a slower continuation of a long-term upward trend in GDP.

Good for NBC. They practice real journalism unless this piece of sh**t at the Inquirer. Gaslighting is not journalism.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2021, 12:54:18 PM »

These are interesting data and StateBoiler is wrong to throw them in trash, even if he is right that journalists look very partisan as they basically never reported party change numbers before today, but it remains to be seen if these voters are really ''lost votes'' for the GOP or if they were already voting dem since 2016/2018.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2021, 12:50:34 PM »

This may reflect the shift of blue-collar workers to Christian fundamentalism.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2021, 04:47:41 AM »

http://ballot-access.org/2021/02/11/new-pennsylvania-registration-data-2/

Quote
Pennsylvania Elections Department has released the first registration totals for any minor parties since February 2020. The new figures are: Democratic 4,075,927; Republican 3,458,241; Libertarian 46,037; Green 10,240; independent and miscellaneous 1,222,818.

The percentages are: Democratic 46.25%; Republican 39.24%; Libertarian .52%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.87%.

In February 2020, the percentages were: Democratic 47.45%; Republican 38.19%; Libertarian .47%; Green .12%; independent and miscellaneous 13.77%.

The 2021 registration numbers above are as of February 1st I think.

As a longtime reader of Ballot Access News which has always reported these numbers when they are released, I'm amused by the media's and this message board's sudden interest in politcal party registration as well as how they only report one side of it. We're completely ignoring how over 1 year the Democrats are down more than 1% and the Republicans are up more than 1%.

People on this board I expect to be one-eyed, journalists however should be held to a higher standard. I might be in the mood to call journalists out for being water carriers.

No kidding, they've been water carriers for years. This isn't new. This forum and all the political prognosticators in the media ignored voter registration for the entire 2020 cycle, and it's part of why they got the election so wrong.

There should also be differentiation between party switches and new registrations. A party switch from R to D indicates a high chance of a reliable Dem voter, a party switch from R to I may just indicate temporary frustration with the party (either from an establishmentarian or Trumpian angle) who may still vote R in the future. Accumulation of more (relative to the other party) new registrations over time would point to increasing vote shares in the state. Dems were wrong to dismiss the GOP's growing advantage in PA and other states as just Dems who voted for Trump in '16 and were just now switching, because lots of new registrations were happening too. Republicans were wrong to assume the entire effect of voter registration changes would be felt in the election results, because some of them were Trump-voting (in '16) Dems and Indies changing to R because they had fully accepted Trump and/or fully discredited Dems. 
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progressive85
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« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2021, 06:58:23 AM »

I wonder if a lot of these are in the Main Line suburbs.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2021, 07:30:46 AM »


Only if a state isn't narrowly contested. 19,000 fewer Republican voters may have different causes (deaths, outward migration, or most likely a departure from the Party to "Independent" or "Democratic" status... a drop in a full bucket may overflow. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2021, 08:23:00 AM »

If D's lose PA it's over, which isn't gonna happen, that's why Ds will replicate the 306 EC map and possibly more seats in next yrs Senate races
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2021, 10:11:55 AM »

I still think the GOP will carry Pennsylvania in 2024. As for the 2022 Senate race, my guess is that Fitzpatrick beats Fetterman by 6 points.
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