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March 04, 2021, 12:48:30 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  POLL: Did the Trump campaign compete seriously in the non-Florida sun belt?
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Poll
Question: Did the Trump campaign take the sun belt states (exception of Florida) seriously?
#1
Yes
#2
No
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Author Topic: POLL: Did the Trump campaign compete seriously in the non-Florida sun belt?  (Read 365 times)
MargieCat
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« on: February 22, 2021, 02:26:09 AM »

I felt that Trump thought he had had the sun belt locked down, and competed more for the rust belt in addition to Florida.

He also seemed to have a fetish for flipping a Clinton state, and campaigned in Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado for at least a little bit.

But did he just assume he'd win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Texas? It seems like he should have played more defense down south.
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Vatnos
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2021, 01:23:56 PM »

Trump made frequent stops to NC. Visited far more often than Biden did. Trump was flying blind, while Biden had good intel (he spent election day visiting all corners of PA, and his team warned months in advance the election was likely to be closer than polls were saying, so he clearly knew what was up).

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TodayJunior
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2021, 01:32:12 PM »

For sure, they were caught off guard about Georgia. They should have seen that coming with the closeness of 2018 governor's race. I recall he visited Arizona fairly frequently...he just got beat there. I was honestly surprised he did as well as he did (holding onto Florida and NC) while losing GA.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2021, 01:38:56 PM »

For sure, they were caught off guard about Georgia. They should have seen that coming with the closeness of 2018 governor's race. I recall he visited Arizona fairly frequently...he just got beat there. I was honestly surprised he did as well as he did (holding onto Florida and NC) while losing GA.

There was a period in late September/early October when both campaigns behaved as if Biden had a clear lead in NC.  It also seems like Trump did not mount a top tier effort in AZ vs. the swing state east of the Mississippi, which is odd, because he clearly caught on to NV being closer than 2016. 
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Motorcity
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2021, 05:47:12 PM »

I think the Trump campaign gave up on Arizona because Mark Kelly was blowing it out the water in the senate race polling. At one point 538 rated Arizona senate seat safer for Democrats than Colorado! This was a mistake, one more visit mightíve won him Arizona.

Trump was right to ignore Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. TBH having to contest these states means heís already lost so the right strategy was assume the polls are wrong and go all in on Pennsylvania. And it almost worked.

I think Trump was wrong to abandon Michigan. The final margin was pretty close. More money and visits could have flipped it. Internal polling for the Democrats showed a close race, thatís why Obama and Biden visited in the last week. In hindsight Trump should have made that push

To summarize, Trump was right about FL, TX, IW, OH, NC, NV and PA. His campaign was wrong about WI, MI, MN, GA, and AZ

Kinda weird that Trump had a boner for Minnesota yet abandon Wisconsin. 2020 ended up being a near repeat of 2016 for WI yet MN shifted to the left.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2021, 06:07:03 PM »

I think the Trump campaign gave up on Arizona because Mark Kelly was blowing it out the water in the senate race polling. At one point 538 rated Arizona senate seat safer for Democrats than Colorado! This was a mistake, one more visit mightíve won him Arizona.

Trump was right to ignore Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. TBH having to contest these states means heís already lost so the right strategy was assume the polls are wrong and go all in on Pennsylvania. And it almost worked.

I think Trump was wrong to abandon Michigan. The final margin was pretty close. More money and visits could have flipped it. Internal polling for the Democrats showed a close race, thatís why Obama and Biden visited in the last week. In hindsight Trump should have made that push

To summarize, Trump was right about FL, TX, IW, OH, NC, NV and PA. His campaign was wrong about WI, MI, MN, GA, and AZ

Kinda weird that Trump had a boner for Minnesota yet abandon Wisconsin. 2020 ended up being a near repeat of 2016 for WI yet MN shifted to the left.

I agree Trump should have invested more on Michigan, if not for himself then at least for John James.
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2021, 11:35:13 PM »

Biden's team sent Obama to Atlanta the Monday before the election, not Charlotte or Miami. Their team knew something we didn't
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AlterEgo
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« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2021, 07:46:13 AM »

I'm dubious that where a candidate physically does campaign stops really matters anymore. That idea seems to be a relic of a time when news was more localized rather than nationalized. Years ago, if a candidate did a stop in Phoenix a voter in Columbus couldn't watch it or probably never heard about it. Now, you can watch that candidate's speech no matter where in the nation or even world you are.

Personally, I think Trump could have done every campaign speech from the White House while Biden did every speech from Wilmington, and we wouldn't have seen any change in the election outcome either way.
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2021, 09:56:18 AM »

I'm dubious that where a candidate physically does campaign stops really matters anymore. That idea seems to be a relic of a time when news was more localized rather than nationalized. Years ago, if a candidate did a stop in Phoenix a voter in Columbus couldn't watch it or probably never heard about it. Now, you can watch that candidate's speech no matter where in the nation or even world you are.

Personally, I think Trump could have done every campaign speech from the White House while Biden did every speech from Wilmington, and we wouldn't have seen any change in the election outcome either way.

Yeah, a lot of people on here act like candidates can just pull a lever and allow themselves to win one state as long as they give up on another state.
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beesley
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2021, 10:02:33 AM »

I'm dubious that where a candidate physically does campaign stops really matters anymore. That idea seems to be a relic of a time when news was more localized rather than nationalized. Years ago, if a candidate did a stop in Phoenix a voter in Columbus couldn't watch it or probably never heard about it. Now, you can watch that candidate's speech no matter where in the nation or even world you are.

Personally, I think Trump could have done every campaign speech from the White House while Biden did every speech from Wilmington, and we wouldn't have seen any change in the election outcome either way.

Yeah, a lot of people on here act like candidates can just pull a lever and allow themselves to win one state as long as they give up on another state.

If anything its only long-term investment that might matter more. It's not as if all those sudden campaign stops to Minnesota and New Mexico in 2016 made a difference.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2021, 10:20:25 AM »

Biden's team sent Obama to Atlanta the Monday before the election, not Charlotte or Miami. Their team knew something we didn't
TBF Trump received a whopping 0.5% more of the vote in NC than GA.
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