I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.
DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.
I actually disagree with this. RI swung/trended D less than any other New England state, so if we’re chalking up some of the other D trends in the region (e.g. in NH) to a mere Trump underperformance/anti-incumbency bias or largely consider them aberrations, I don’t see why we should treat RI any differently.
At the very least, I don’t see what would make DE a substantially more attainable Republican target than RI, even with the Biden overperformance in the former.
I think the main reason that is Delaware is already close than Rhode Island is. Clinton won it by 11 in 2016, less than the 15 she won Rhode Island by. It's more Southern culturally without a long history of liberalism that Rhode Island has.
I don't either are very realistic, but Republicans could be successful if they tried to appeal to Wilmington-area Black voters and suburbanites. They also have a more reliable base in the state to create a bench, given that they almost always win Sussex and often win Kent.
What exactly do republicans offer to these people to get their votes? especially given that Joe Biden is currently president and is basically their dream candidate.
