|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 04, 2021, 04:03:33 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Should Dems be worried about Delaware and Rhode Island?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Should Dems be worried about Delaware and Rhode Island?  (Read 417 times)
Pink Panther
Rookie
**
Posts: 74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 22, 2021, 01:11:31 AM »

I say this because both states are predominantly WWC, and if Trumpism survives(which I think will), will these states become more competitive in the future?
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2021, 07:25:02 AM »

I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.

DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.
Logged
ultrxviolet
ultraviolet
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,141
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.06, S: -4.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2021, 09:15:36 AM »

Maybe DE, not RI. Neither are very important states because of their size though
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2021, 09:21:48 AM »

Maybe DE, not RI. Neither are very important states because of their size though

The Senate exists.
Logged
Sol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,987


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2021, 07:00:17 PM »

What trend exactly is pushing Delaware to Republicans?
Logged
Arachno-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,564
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2021, 07:41:59 PM »

Not yet, and even then, Sun Belt gains will offset those losses at the presidential level. To squander resources shoring up the North is to lose out on bigger opportunities down South.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,073


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2021, 07:59:00 PM »

Maybe DE, not RI. Neither are very important states because of their size though
4 senate seats are important
Logged
The Birth of Babalon
discovolante
Atlas Politician
Jr. Member
*****
Posts: 832
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2021, 01:27:51 PM »

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example). RI could be a bit more worrying long-term, especially due to New England Republican wonkiness (insert joke Governor -> Senator -> President Allan Fung timeline here), but I think its relative urbanization and Northeasternness will keep it Dem until realignment turns on its head in some form.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,226
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2021, 02:22:37 PM »

I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.

DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.

I actually disagree with this. RI swung/trended D less than any other New England state, so if weíre chalking up some of the other D trends in the region (e.g. in NH) to a mere Trump underperformance/anti-incumbency bias or largely consider them aberrations, I donít see why we should treat RI any differently.

At the very least, I donít see what would make DE a substantially more attainable Republican target than RI, even with the Biden overperformance in the former.
Logged
kwabbit
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2021, 05:52:08 PM »

I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.

DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.

I actually disagree with this. RI swung/trended D less than any other New England state, so if weíre chalking up some of the other D trends in the region (e.g. in NH) to a mere Trump underperformance/anti-incumbency bias or largely consider them aberrations, I donít see why we should treat RI any differently.

At the very least, I donít see what would make DE a substantially more attainable Republican target than RI, even with the Biden overperformance in the former.

I think the main reason that is Delaware is already close than Rhode Island is. Clinton won it by 11 in 2016, less than the 15 she won Rhode Island by. It's more Southern culturally without a long history of liberalism that Rhode Island has.

I don't either are very realistic, but Republicans could be successful if they tried to appeal to Wilmington-area Black voters and suburbanites. They also have a more reliable base in the state to create a bench, given that they almost always win Sussex and often win Kent.
Logged
Liberal Hack
IBNU
Atlas Politician
Jr. Member
*****
Posts: 772
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2021, 08:05:59 PM »

I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.

DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.

I actually disagree with this. RI swung/trended D less than any other New England state, so if weíre chalking up some of the other D trends in the region (e.g. in NH) to a mere Trump underperformance/anti-incumbency bias or largely consider them aberrations, I donít see why we should treat RI any differently.

At the very least, I donít see what would make DE a substantially more attainable Republican target than RI, even with the Biden overperformance in the former.

I think the main reason that is Delaware is already close than Rhode Island is. Clinton won it by 11 in 2016, less than the 15 she won Rhode Island by. It's more Southern culturally without a long history of liberalism that Rhode Island has.

I don't either are very realistic, but Republicans could be successful if they tried to appeal to Wilmington-area Black voters and suburbanites. They also have a more reliable base in the state to create a bench, given that they almost always win Sussex and often win Kent.

What exactly do  republicans offer to these people to get their votes? especially given that Joe Biden is currently president and is basically their dream candidate.
Logged
kwabbit
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 438


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2021, 09:43:40 PM »

I had thought Democrats might have to be worried about DE and RI in the medium term, but I've changed my mind on the latter state. It was only just appearing to come into play in 2016 and it swung/trended significantly D this time with Democratic strength recurring downballot. The 2018 elections saw the re-election of Raimondo and the RI Republican bench is almost non-existent; I don't think it's a state Dems need to worry about, besides the outside chance of a Donald Carcieri 2022 bid.

DE remains a serious prospect for Republicans in the medium term. Demographic trends are favourable, particularly in the way that the state is aging and they shouldn't be disheartened by Biden's home state boost and potential Democratic resilience in the state during his presidency. The best thing Delaware Republicans could do for themselves is fund former Auditor Tom Wagner's healthcare and kidney transplant, so that he can return to politics.

I actually disagree with this. RI swung/trended D less than any other New England state, so if weíre chalking up some of the other D trends in the region (e.g. in NH) to a mere Trump underperformance/anti-incumbency bias or largely consider them aberrations, I donít see why we should treat RI any differently.

At the very least, I donít see what would make DE a substantially more attainable Republican target than RI, even with the Biden overperformance in the former.

I think the main reason that is Delaware is already close than Rhode Island is. Clinton won it by 11 in 2016, less than the 15 she won Rhode Island by. It's more Southern culturally without a long history of liberalism that Rhode Island has.

I don't either are very realistic, but Republicans could be successful if they tried to appeal to Wilmington-area Black voters and suburbanites. They also have a more reliable base in the state to create a bench, given that they almost always win Sussex and often win Kent.

What exactly do  republicans offer to these people to get their votes? especially given that Joe Biden is currently president and is basically their dream candidate.

They don't really do anything currently to get their votes, and they don't. Perhaps the GOP could create a friendlier brand to these voters though. Mike Castle did. GOP success wouldn't just start with sudden victories at the federal level; it would have to come from the ground up. Delaware is a small state, and they could develop some moderate, popular politicians that could be viable on the federal level in a wave year. Perhaps Delaware will get a second House seat, which would lean R.

Biden won't last forever lol. Of course the GOP won't be successful in DE with Biden on the ballot, but he isn't going to be.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 12 queries.