Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?
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  Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?
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Poll
Question: Which Governor who's up for re-election between now & 2022 do you believe to be the most vulnerable to an electoral defeat?
#1
Phil Murphy (D-NJ)
 
#2
Kay Ivey (R-AL)
 
#3
Mike Dunleavy (R-AK)
 
#4
Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
 
#5
Jared Polis (D-CO)
 
#6
Ned Lamont (D-CT)
 
#7
Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
 
#8
Brian Kemp (R-GA)
 
#9
Brad Little (R-ID)
 
#10
J.B. Pritzker (D-IL)
 
#11
Kim Reynolds (R-IA)
 
#12
Laura Kelly (D-KS)
 
#13
Janet Mills (D-ME)
 
#14
Charlie Baker (R-MA)
 
#15
Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)
 
#16
Tim Walz (D-MN)
 
#17
Steve Sisolak (D-NV)
 
#18
Chris Sununu (R-NH)
 
#19
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM)
 
#20
Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
 
#21
Mike DeWine (R-OH)
 
#22
Kevin Stitt (R-OK)
 
#23
Henry McMaster (R-SC)
 
#24
Kristi Noem (R-SD)
 
#25
Bill Lee (R-TN)
 
#26
Greg Abbott (R-TX)
 
#27
Phil Scott (R-VT)
 
#28
Tony Evers (D-WI)
 
#29
Mark Gordon (R-WY)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 80

Author Topic: Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?  (Read 1756 times)
PAK Man
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« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2021, 11:08:45 PM »


  • Kim Reynolds - extremely unpopular; and would Iowa still be considered a swing state on the state and local levels?


Democrats did decently in Iowa in 2018 without Trump on the ballot. I'm inclined to believe Democrats should at least be competitive in 2022. She completely botched Iowa's COVID battle and she's pushing through a very conservative and unpopular agenda in Iowa with social issues and local control on tap, plus continuing to decimate Iowa's public schools.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2021, 11:13:14 PM »

Laura Kelly.

She got really lucky in 2018 that she was facing Kris Kobach. If she faces even a slightly more rational opponent, she loses.
I agree, people are vastly overestimating her chances at re-election, likely R, closer to lean than safe.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #27 on: February 24, 2021, 11:34:28 PM »

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

Sure Jan

Texas is still a R+10 to R+13 state, yeah it has trended to the left between 2012 and 2018, yeah Texas is unlikely to vote again like it did during the Bush era, yeah democrats have now a relatively high floor of 42% or 43%, now once we have said that it is still a very red state. If everything goes well for dems they could eventually come close to flip the AG office, assuming Paxton doesn't retire / he is not defeated in the primary, but they have no chance against Abbott, Abbott has a double digits positive approval rate and was the top vote getter in 2018, he will likely win reelection by 14 points or something like that.

Also democrats should really stop with this idea that republican voters only care about Trump and won't vote when he is not on the ballot, it is absurd, yeah some 2020 GOP voters are not going to vote next year, but democrats have also a large swath of low propensity voters, so no, the electorate won't be much more dem friendly than in 2020.
Republicans haven't won TX by 10+ since 2012.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2021, 12:12:16 AM »


  • Kim Reynolds - extremely unpopular; and would Iowa still be considered a swing state on the state and local levels?


Democrats did decently in Iowa in 2018 without Trump on the ballot. I'm inclined to believe Democrats should at least be competitive in 2022. She completely botched Iowa's COVID battle and she's pushing through a very conservative and unpopular agenda in Iowa with social issues and local control on tap, plus continuing to decimate Iowa's public schools.

That's why I rated Iowa gubernatorial as a tossup.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #29 on: February 25, 2021, 03:50:13 AM »

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

Sure Jan

Texas is still a R+10 to R+13 state, yeah it has trended to the left between 2012 and 2018, yeah Texas is unlikely to vote again like it did during the Bush era, yeah democrats have now a relatively high floor of 42% or 43%, now once we have said that it is still a very red state. If everything goes well for dems they could eventually come close to flip the AG office, assuming Paxton doesn't retire / he is not defeated in the primary, but they have no chance against Abbott, Abbott has a double digits positive approval rate and was the top vote getter in 2018, he will likely win reelection by 14 points or something like that.

Also democrats should really stop with this idea that republican voters only care about Trump and won't vote when he is not on the ballot, it is absurd, yeah some 2020 GOP voters are not going to vote next year, but democrats have also a large swath of low propensity voters, so no, the electorate won't be much more dem friendly than in 2020.
Republicans haven't won TX by 10+ since 2012.

2014 ? 2016 (for the congressional races) ?

Also I'm talking about the relative of the state, a R+X state means the state in question leans X points to the right of the country.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #30 on: February 25, 2021, 10:20:34 AM »

Voted Kelly, but Kemp is a close second. Evers is also fairly vulnerable.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #31 on: February 25, 2021, 10:40:44 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2021, 10:44:23 AM by EastOfEden »

Laura Kelly.

She got really lucky in 2018 that she was facing Kris Kobach. If she faces even a slightly more rational opponent, she loses.

Kathleen Sebelius got really lucky in 2002 that she was facing Tim Shallenburger. If she faces even a slightly more rational opponent, like Jim Barnett maybe, she loses.

Kansas is idiosyncratic. Don't count Kelly out. She outperformed her polls in 2018 - they were all pointing to a 1-point race. Personally, I think she still could have won against Colyer, just by a smaller margin (+1 or +2 instead of +5).

Obviously she's not going to cruise to victory, but don't underestimate how powerful the "Brownback in disguise!" attack is in Kansas.
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beesley
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« Reply #32 on: February 25, 2021, 12:39:30 PM »

If you mean as an individual then Kemp, because he's doubly vulnerable - in the primary, and should he win that, the general. If you mean as in same party keeping control then Kelly for sure.
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Xing
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« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2021, 04:44:25 PM »

Definitely Kelly. Hard to see her winning again. Kemp is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2021, 02:21:58 PM »

I'm saying Tony Evers, followed by Laura Kelly. But for some reason I believe latter has a high chance for reelection despite Kansas being much more red than Wisconsin. Kelly is actually popular, while Evers is just above water.
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