2016 -> 2020 swing map by CD

[ProgressiveModerate]

Overall, I find this map interesting because it looks better for Biden than say the NYT swing map; most parts of the country swung towards Biden. However, where Trump improved he really improved. One thing to note is that in one sided places that swung the opposite direction, Biden/Trump still for the most part netted more votes than 2016 because of higher overall turnout.

[Roll Roons]

I will never not find it funny that Matt Gaetz' district was one of the few parts of Florida to have a big swing towards Biden.

[Calthrina950]

Overall, I find this map interesting because it looks better for Biden than say the NYT swing map; most parts of the country swung towards Biden. However, where Trump improved he really improved. One thing to note is that in one sided places that swung the opposite direction, Biden/Trump still for the most part netted more votes than 2016 because of higher overall turnout.

The Rio Grande Valley and South Florida-the two regions of improvement for Trump which shocked most observers-obviously stand out on the map. One can see urban centers such as Chicago, Philadelphia, New York City, Los Angeles, and Houston, where Trump improved compared to 2016 (although still losing by landslide margins); Utah (where the majority of the McMullin vote went to Trump); Arkansas (where Trump improved over 2016, and where Clinton did have a residual home-state effect); Black Belt districts in North Carolina and South Carolina (indicators of Trump's improvement with black voters); parts of rural and WWC Ohio (Trump flipped Lorain and Mahoning Counties); Gary, Indiana and its environs (IN-01 continues to trend Republican); and heavily Hispanic districts in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (further evidence that Trump's improvement among Hispanics was a nationwide trend).

[Kamala's side hoe]

and heavily Hispanic districts in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (further evidence that Trump's improvement among Hispanics was a nationwide trend).

Nationwide yes, but by no means uniform. There was very little discernable Latino swing in the PNW, and you really have to dig into the NYT precinct map to find any possible signs of this.

[Skill and Chance]

Looking at how concentrated the pro-Trump swing is vs. the diffuse pro-Biden swing, it's kind of shocking that the Dem EC disadvantage got worse last year. 

[Calthrina950]

and heavily Hispanic districts in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (further evidence that Trump's improvement among Hispanics was a nationwide trend).

Nationwide yes, but by no means uniform. There was very little discernable Latino swing in the PNW, and you really have to dig into the NYT precinct map to find any possible signs of this.

I wasn't arguing that it was uniform. I said that Trump's improvement among Hispanic voters wasn't confined to one state or one region.

[Skill and Chance]

and heavily Hispanic districts in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (further evidence that Trump's improvement among Hispanics was a nationwide trend).

Nationwide yes, but by no means uniform. There was very little discernable Latino swing in the PNW, and you really have to dig into the NYT precinct map to find any possible signs of this.

I wasn't arguing that it was uniform. I said that Trump's improvement among Hispanic voters wasn't confined to one state or one region.

What sticks out to me is that Biden held up quite impressively in NM considering what was happening in nearby parts of TX, AZ, and CA. 

[Calthrina950]

and heavily Hispanic districts in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico (further evidence that Trump's improvement among Hispanics was a nationwide trend).

Nationwide yes, but by no means uniform. There was very little discernable Latino swing in the PNW, and you really have to dig into the NYT precinct map to find any possible signs of this.

I wasn't arguing that it was uniform. I said that Trump's improvement among Hispanic voters wasn't confined to one state or one region.

What sticks out to me is that Biden held up quite impressively in NM considering what was happening in nearby parts of TX, AZ, and CA. 

That's true, although NM-02 did move Trump's way. Biden obviously improved among white voters in the state, particularly in Santa Fe and Albuquerque.

[Canis]

Is there a way to zoom into LA county?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there a way to zoom into LA county?

[Calthrina950]

Is there a way to zoom into LA county?

Unsusprisingly, it was the inner city and more minority-heavy districts in Los Angeles County that swung to Trump the most. The only district almost entirely within the county which appears to have swung to Biden is CA-25, one of the four Biden-Republican districts in California.

[nclib]

Good map, though it is frustrating not being able to tell which way the really close ones went.

It would be good to see close-ups of NYC and Chicago in addition to LA County.

I'm trying to make a list of CDs without sizeable minority population, swinging to Trump in addition to self-explanatory ones in UT and AR:

MO-8
WI-3
OH-4
OH-6
PA-15

What else? Any explanations for these CDs?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good map, though it is frustrating not being able to tell which way the really close ones went.

It would be good to see close-ups of NYC and Chicago in addition to LA County.

I'm trying to make a list of CDs without sizeable minority population, swinging to Trump in addition to self-explanatory ones in UT and AR:

MO-8
WI-3
OH-4
OH-6
PA-15

What else? Any explanations for these CDs?

Thank you for the positive comment. I made the image larger so hopefully you'll be able to zoom in on any metro area.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PvRZXE8zZfmxWrWI6V3sUHOHi5lfCn3zwHosMOAp-6Q/edit?usp=sharing

The spreadsheet above has the full calculations.

[nclib]

Largest Dem swings:

TX-3   13.14
GA-7   12.69
GA-6   12.59
TX-26   12.39
TX-24   11.70
CO-5   11.01
CO-7   10.83

Largest GOP swings:

FL-26   21.88
FL-25   21.24
TX-34   17.52
FL-27   16.37
FL-24   16.03
TX-28   15.54
NY-15   15.47

All are Hispanic majorities except FL-24 which is plurality black and has a good amount of Hispanics.

Largest GOP swings in majority-white CDs outside of Utah (2016 3rd party voters coming back to Trump) and Arkansas (loss of Hillary home state effect):

NY-10   6.30
CA-28   6.15
CA-30   4.14
OK-2   3.87
OH-9   3.12
OH-13   3.12
OH-6   3.09

[Non Swing Voter]

The only sense I can make of that map is that Trump tanked in mostly white + diverisying suburbs but held up pretty much everywhere else (rural, urban, heavily hispanic, asian areas, etc.).  one thing to keep in mind though is that a lot of the places that are red, where Trump made gains, still went to Biden by tremendous margins.  I attribute some of that to low propensity voters who joined the Trump cult.

[Hope For A New Era]

It really is remarkable just how uniform it all is. Not a single R or D voter was convinced. 2016 third-party voters went to Biden. That's all that happened.