Why did Kerry do better in Eastern Kentucky than Gore?

[Alben Barkley]

John Kerry in 2004 did significantly better in most of Eastern Kentucky than Al Gore did, flipping a number of counties Gore lost.

At first, maybe you would think you could explain this as “Gore had an environmentalist image which didn’t play well in coal country” except for the fact that Kerry did WORSE than Gore across most of similar West Virginia.

I’ve never been really sure how to explain this discrepancy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Must have had to do with the fact that there was a competitive senate race in Kentucky

[Alcibiades]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

[VPH]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

This could help explain it but I'm not sure if there's any data for it beyond the list of people associated with the tendency. Kentucky and Tennessee (particularly in the Appalachian parts) have an anti-war streak. Eugene Siler, John Sherman Cooper, Jimmy Duncan, Thomas Massie, Rand Paul (although he's from across the state). Even controversial Paleocon Sam Francis was from Appalachian Tennessee.

[Alben Barkley]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

I mean, FDR still dominated there in 1940. In fact, the state voted left of the nation that year (also 1944 and 1948) despite voting slightly right of the nation in 1936. I’ve never seen it as an exceptionally isolationist region, so I’m not sure I totally buy this explanation.

[Alcibiades]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

I mean, FDR still dominated there in 1940. In fact, the state voted left of the nation that year (also 1944 and 1948) despite voting slightly right of the nation in 1936. I’ve never seen it as an exceptionally isolationist region, so I’m not sure I totally buy this explanation.

This is something I’ve read in a number of places, and I think 1972 (rather than the FDR elections, because the New Deal practically made him a god in some of the places) is also a good example; most of the Kerry counties also voted for McGovern, whereas all of the Gore ‘00-Bush ‘04 counties voted for Nixon.

[Alben Barkley]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

I mean, FDR still dominated there in 1940. In fact, the state voted left of the nation that year (also 1944 and 1948) despite voting slightly right of the nation in 1936. I’ve never seen it as an exceptionally isolationist region, so I’m not sure I totally buy this explanation.

This is something I’ve read in a number of places, and I think 1972 (rather than the FDR elections, because the New Deal practically made him a god in some of the places) is also a good example; most of the Kerry counties also voted for McGovern, whereas all of the Gore ‘00-Bush ‘04 counties voted for Nixon.

Hmm, that’s very interesting.

I still think the idea of “pacifist Eastern KY” is kind of a stretch, but maybe there’s something to it in this regard.

All I know is my own grandfather from Eastern KY who fought in WW2, as well as all his friends for all his life, were staunch Roosevelt disciples and New Deal Democrats who were extremely proud of their service and who couldn’t have signed up faster once war was declared.

Maybe it was different in other counties, or maybe, like you say, it was more of an FDR/WW2 specific effect. It was the “good war” after all, and my grandfather actually voted for McGovern. He was not a hawk for the sake of it; he fought for what he believed was right at all times.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

I mean, FDR still dominated there in 1940. In fact, the state voted left of the nation that year (also 1944 and 1948) despite voting slightly right of the nation in 1936. I’ve never seen it as an exceptionally isolationist region, so I’m not sure I totally buy this explanation.

This is something I’ve read in a number of places, and I think 1972 (rather than the FDR elections, because the New Deal practically made him a god in some of the places) is also a good example; most of the Kerry counties also voted for McGovern, whereas all of the Gore ‘00-Bush ‘04 counties voted for Nixon.

Hmm, that’s very interesting.

I still think the idea of “pacifist Eastern KY” is kind of a stretch, but maybe there’s something to it in this regard.

All I know is my own grandfather from Eastern KY who fought in WW2, as well as all his friends for all his life, were staunch Roosevelt disciples and New Deal Democrats who were extremely proud of their service and who couldn’t have signed up faster once war was declared.

Maybe it was different in other counties, or maybe, like you say, it was more of an FDR/WW2 specific effect. It was the “good war” after all, and my grandfather actually voted for McGovern. He was not a hawk for the sake of it; he fought for what he believed was right at all times.

It's possible that WWII may have been the lone exception. Was their any significant swing in the region towards Harding in 1920? I think that would establish a consistent anti-war pattern.

[One Term Floridian]

Because it is a historically very isolationist region which was none too impressed with Bush’s foreign policy in 2004 (remember he had actually campaigned as the less interventionist candidate in 2000!).

I mean, FDR still dominated there in 1940. In fact, the state voted left of the nation that year (also 1944 and 1948) despite voting slightly right of the nation in 1936. I’ve never seen it as an exceptionally isolationist region, so I’m not sure I totally buy this explanation.

This is something I’ve read in a number of places, and I think 1972 (rather than the FDR elections, because the New Deal practically made him a god in some of the places) is also a good example; most of the Kerry counties also voted for McGovern, whereas all of the Gore ‘00-Bush ‘04 counties voted for Nixon.

Hmm, that’s very interesting.

I still think the idea of “pacifist Eastern KY” is kind of a stretch, but maybe there’s something to it in this regard.

All I know is my own grandfather from Eastern KY who fought in WW2, as well as all his friends for all his life, were staunch Roosevelt disciples and New Deal Democrats who were extremely proud of their service and who couldn’t have signed up faster once war was declared.

Maybe it was different in other counties, or maybe, like you say, it was more of an FDR/WW2 specific effect. It was the “good war” after all, and my grandfather actually voted for McGovern. He was not a hawk for the sake of it; he fought for what he believed was right at all times.

It's possible that WWII may have been the lone exception. Was their any significant swing in the region towards Harding in 1920? I think that would establish a consistent anti-war pattern.

Just about everywhere swung towards Harding in 1920, but Kentucky didn’t swing quite as hard as the rest of the country

[Chips]

Must have had to do with the fact that there was a competitive senate race in Kentucky

Probably this honestly.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I was going to empty-quote a post that I made on this subject a while back, but I can't find it.

The most convincing argument for the ancestral isolationist case is Menifee County, which voted Republican in 2000 for the first time since 1928, but then voted for both Kerry and Obama (even swinging D in 2008!) before pivoting hard right. Certainly this wasn't the only factor, as others have noted, but I find this particular case quite fascinating.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Mahoning County in Ohio also swung to Kerry, then stayed still in 2008 (trended McCain), and then swung to Obama in 2012. It famously finally flipped this time.

In 2004, the Senate election in Ohio was a Republican landslide.

I really don't know the cause of it.