Mason-Dixon: Allen (R) increases lead over Webb (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Alcon, the fact of the matter is that they use a different sample of likely voters than Zogby does or Gallup and that is a fact. The only state that is for sure is PA and even that I can't predict.

[Alcon]

Well, Alcon, the fact of the matter is that they use a different sample of likely voters than Zogby does or Gallup and that is a fact. The only state that is for sure is PA and even that I can't predict.

The only state that is for sure in what way is Pennsylvania?  And, obviously, every poll company has different samples.  Otherwise they would all get virtually identical results.  What is your point?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that the polling samples can lean to the right or left based on the poll company.  And like I said, since when has Mason Dixon had Brown ahead. The last poll they had was  he was down by 7. So, I don't expect him to be ahead in the next either.

[Virginian87]

This is not good news.  This poll shows a much wider margin than any of the others.  Hopefully this is not the start of a continuing trend.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think this poll company is accurate. Most of the polls show it a 10 point race and I think that is the more accurate one, not this one.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Perhaps Mason-Dixon appeared to be so accurate in 2004 because its samples lean Republican?  As has already been stated, 2004 was a good year for high turnout amongst GOP voters.  Mason-Dixon's polls anticipated the results very accurately.  However, I'm sorry I may be wrong but I do not believe Allen is leading by 16%.  I also think 625 people as a sample is too small; I think the perfect sample would be between 900 and 1,000 people.  Also is this a poll of likely or registered voters or both?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least someone agrees with me. Like I said, the last poll had DeWine up by 7, do you really think that they are going to show Brown ahead of DeWine next time. It is of both, Mason-Dixon uses both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Last word on this, Knight Ridder or Mason-Dixon may be independent, but it has a conservative slant. And Dems are leary of this just like the GOP is leary of the Zogby polls, I wouldn't take any biased polls at full face value.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The mason-dixon poll company says it is registered voters most likely to vote. So, they do both.

[Alcon]

The mason-dixon poll company says it is registered voters most likely to vote. So, they do both.

That is not correct. "Registered voters most likely to vote" means "likely voters."

And I still do not see how you claim that Mason-Dixon has a "conservative lean."  Just because it is giving more conservative results during the summer than the polling average does not mean it is conservative.  It could mean:

1. They are better for adjusting for the issues that affect summer polling results.
2. The other pollsters are too far to the left in their samples.

Few dispute that the election turnout among Democrats and Republicans will probably be fairly even nationwide, as it was in 2004; that's not the point of contention, necessarily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You keep saying that it is liberal, they have never had Brown ahead so I don't think that they will. And they never had Kerry lead in summer or fall in OH.  Look, Mason-Dixon oversamples republicans more than Dems, they simply don't have the liberal sample that Zogby or Gallup. When it selects likely voters, they select a more conservative sample than liberal ones.  And 625 is too small of a sample. The sample of likely voters is the key. And lastly, they predicted more Republicans to turn out than most other pollsters had. Most pollsters had it 35R and they had it 37R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you predict a higher than expected Republican turnout than other pollsters than you will get a more republican sample.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most pollsters have it 35D and mason-dixon always have it 37R and that is the point of contention. Most liberals will not agree with Mason-dixon just like Republicans are going to agree on Zogby. I say that Mason-dixon is just as accurate as Gallup. Look liberals have their pollsters Gallup, Zogby, and ARG, and republicans have theirs in Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, and strategic vision. I would think you will be hard press to find that Dems rely on Mason-dixon. Some people say Strategic Vision is independent. Fox news say it is independent. No pollster is independent, they are just more independent than the other poll company.

[Alcon]

You keep saying that it is liberal, they have never had Brown ahead so I don't think that they will. And they never had Kerry lead in summer or fall in OH.  Look, Mason-Dixon oversamples republicans more than Dems, they simply don't have the liberal sample that Zogby or Gallup. When it selects likely voters, they select a more conservative sample than liberal ones.  And 625 is too small of a sample. The sample of likely voters is the key. And lastly, they predicted more Republicans to turn out than most other pollsters had. Most pollsters had it 35R and they had it 37R.

I keep saying what is liberal?  Where did I say this?  What are you talking about?

Why is 625 too small of a sample?  Midterms tend to have higher Republican turnout, marginally, in most cases, I believe.  Again, just because they have a higher percentage of Republicans than average does not mean they are wrong, or right-leaning, or whatever.

I think you are investing too much interest in pollster's individual leanings.  As we get into October, you will see that all pollsters will start floating together. You will also see that Mason-Dixon will start leaning libreral in September.  That is, unless you contest that summer polling doesn't lean Dem and early fall polling lean GOP, which is just untrue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that you keep thinking that Masondixon is liberal, it isn't they never had Kerry ahead of Bush in Oh and Brown ahead of DeWine. And the pool size of likely voters is different than most other pollsters. They are an independent poll company but they have a conserv slant and you aren't going to change my mine on that. And also, Survey USA and Columbus Dispatch does mail in ballots and they do phone samples. There is a difference. They poll more republicans and liberal poll more Dems and we wll see which one is correct at the ballot box. This time, maybe Mason-Dixon will be on the losing side like it was in 1992 and 1994 and just like they predicted FL and AZ going to the Republicans in 1996.

[Alcon]

I said that you keep thinking that Masondixon is liberal, it isn't they never had Kerry ahead of Bush in Oh and Brown ahead of DeWine. And the pool size of likely voters is different than most other pollsters. They are an independent poll company but they have a conserv slant and you aren't going to change my mine on that. And also, Survey USA and Columbus Dispatch does mail in ballots and they do phone samples. There is a difference. They poll more republicans and liberal poll more Dems and we wll see which one is correct at the ballot box. This time, maybe Mason-Dixon will be on the losing side like it was in 1992 and 1994 and just like they predicted FL and AZ going to the Republicans in 1996.

Bush won Ohio.  There is nothing wrong with Mason-Dixon's numbers in Ohio.  They nailed the final result, and weren't insanely far to the right at any point.  Just because other pollsters had Kerry ahead does not mean he ever actually was during times when M-D polled.  That is not proof that Mason-Dixon is more right-leaning than the results; that is proof that Mason-Dixon is more right-leaning than most pollsters, up until the end of the election!  We have no way of knowing who was "right" in September or October.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush won OH because the oversample of republicans came out. I will just stick with my liberal pollsters. M-d thanks but no thank you.

[Alcon]

Bush won OH because M-D correctly predicted the outcome of more republican voters were going to turn out than Gallup or Zogby.

Look at the Gallup poll prior.  That wasn't their issue.  And Zogby has completely unrelated issues.

Their ability to predict that sort of thing seems like a good thing to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course you don't see it my way because you are not a Democrat. If m-d wasn't so conserv how come conserv listen to them and liberals don't, that should tell you right there.

[Alcon]

Of course you don't see it my way because you are not a Democrat. If m-d wasn't so conserv how come conserv listen to them and liberals don't, that should tell you right there.

Sorry to disappoint you, but I was a liberal Democrat in 2004, when I got the top score thanks to Mason-Dixon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look, polls are snapshots in time, and no matter what a pollster might say, turnout is the key. And no one can predict for sure how the turnout will be and turnout can be the key to Democratic success this fall because they are upset with Bush. As Howard Dean says "turnout can overcome any deficit." He was saying that in reference to Kerry trailing in OH on election it didn't happen but it can be true, just like everyone expected Tom Daschle to beat Thune and turnout was the key in that race on election day.

[Alcon]

Look, polls are snapshots in time, and no matter what a pollster might say, turnout is the key. And no one can predict for sure how the turnout will be and turnout can be the key to Democratic success this fall because they are upset with Bush. As Howard Dean says "turnout can overcome any deficit." He was saying that in reference to Kerry trailing in OH on election it didn't happen but it can be true, just like everyone expected Tom Daschle to beat Thune and turnout was the key in that race on election day.

True, and Mason-Dixon has a sterling record with predicting turnout.  It almost sounds like you're saying that there is no way to tell who is right, so we might as well go with arbitrary measures (most Democratic, most people polled, smallest MoE).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Zogby was just as good like in 1996 and 2000 when he polled less republicans.

[Alcon]

And Zogby was just as good like in 1996 and 2000 when he polled less republicans.

Well, in 2000, I would have trusted Zogby.  In 2004, I would have noticed that his results were getting too erratic and not trusted him.  I do not see this in Mason-Dixon.

Zogby polling fewer Republicans in 1996 and 2000 is interesting, but irrelevant as to why I should not be trusting Mason-Dixon as much as I do now.

[Sam Spade]

And Zogby was just as good like in 1996 and 2000 when he polled less republicans.

Well, in 2000, I would have trusted Zogby.  In 2004, I would have noticed that his results were getting too erratic and not trusted him.  I do not see this in Mason-Dixon.

Zogby polling fewer Republicans in 1996 and 2000 is interesting, but irrelevant as to why I should not be trusting Mason-Dixon as much as I do now.

Actually, in 1996 Zogby got it right by predicting that more Republicans would turn out than nearly all other polls were saying (except for the Battleground Poll).