Post “Cancun Cruz” does Ted Cruz lose his home state in the 2024 Republican primary?
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  Post “Cancun Cruz” does Ted Cruz lose his home state in the 2024 Republican primary?
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Author Topic: Post “Cancun Cruz” does Ted Cruz lose his home state in the 2024 Republican primary?  (Read 1664 times)
Medal506
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« on: February 19, 2021, 05:33:27 PM »

Assuming Donald Trump doesn’t run again and Cruz does, has Cruz blown his chances at winning the nomination in the wake of the Cancun scandal? More specifically, has he blown his chances at winning his own home state in the primary?
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2021, 05:36:09 PM »

Everyone knows that Ted Cruzs' 5 Day long Cancun trip 4 years ago will be the #1 top issue in 2024 and the only issue anyone cares about.
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AGA
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2021, 05:48:29 PM »

No, people won't care.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2021, 06:45:48 PM »

I think it's more damaging in a general election than in a primary.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2021, 07:28:37 PM »

Doubt he would've even won Texas in the first place, before and after "Cancungate"
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2021, 07:35:14 PM »

No. It won't be relevant by then. Anyway Ted Cruz is not going to be the nominee under any circumstance.

The only election where the energy crisis in Texas may matter is in next year's gubernatorial election. A Democrat could definitely use this against Abbott, but I still wouldn't go as far as to think that it's enough for a Democrat to win the state yet.
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Hammy
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2021, 08:48:59 PM »

Cruz stopped being relevant as a presidential candidate after he announced his presidential ticket in 2016 a week or two before dropping out. Another election cycle won't change that, with or without his Cancun trip.
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Medal506
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2021, 09:53:33 PM »

The number of unforced errors we've been seeing from Cruz lately lead me to believe he's running for President only in 2024, and that he'll give up his senate seat.

That’s exactly his plan. If he fails to win the nomination or the general election, I think his next plan is to become a pundit on fox or get a show on the daily wire (which he actually already has)
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2021, 12:39:39 PM »

Cruz's biggest mistake wasn't in going to Cancun, it was in backing down so quickly. He should've doubled down. "What do you expect me to do - make it hotter?" He should've stayed for the duration. He should've been photographed shirtless on a sunny Mexican beach. You know it's what Trump would've done - well, maybe not shirtless - and his poll numbers would've gone up. But no - Cruz buckled under the pressure. Republicans don't like it when you back down. Cruz backed down.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2021, 12:56:57 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2021, 01:46:49 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.
Ted Cruz is weird. I don't really know who his base is or how he got his seat in the first place. A senator from Texas? You'd think there would be dozens of top tier candidates for that seat

I can't think of any other guy who has such a national profile yet is despised by nearly everyone, even his own party
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Crane
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2021, 01:53:44 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.

Crenshaw is an idiot.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2021, 02:47:28 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.

Crenshaw is an idiot.

That's why he's gone so far. Committed GOP voters, and especially what fewer younger voters they're picking up still, don't remotely want policy wonks. He delivers all the sound and fury of the culture war without outwardly taking a stance on anything, and that's his appeal and why he's the face of the younger right. I can definitely see him overperforming in a Texas that continues to trend D, sadly.
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Medal506
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2021, 09:26:34 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.

Crenshaw is an idiot.

That's why he's gone so far. Committed GOP voters, and especially what fewer younger voters they're picking up still, don't remotely want policy wonks. He delivers all the sound and fury of the culture war without outwardly taking a stance on anything, and that's his appeal and why he's the face of the younger right. I can definitely see him overperforming in a Texas that continues to trend D, sadly.

If by culture war you mean Dan Crenshaw trying to beat the left at their own game by speaking at TPUSA events that affiliate with Rob Smith and Lady Maga.
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Spark
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2021, 10:21:41 PM »

I sure hope so.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2021, 10:27:27 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.
Ted Cruz is weird. I don't really know who his base is or how he got his seat in the first place. A senator from Texas? You'd think there would be dozens of top tier candidates for that seat

I can't think of any other guy who has such a national profile yet is despised by nearly everyone, even his own party

He very well may be despised by Republicans on the Hill, but I don't think it really has been sufficiently demonstrated that he is particularly unpopular among rank-and-file Republican voters, despite that being such a prominent narrative. If my recollection serves, his approval ratings were never particularly poor in recent years, and I believe they often eclipsed Cornyn's.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2021, 05:52:10 AM »

It's never really about one single issue from years ago when it comes to these primaries, but rather it's about how voters generally feel about a given candidate and this Cancun thing is just one in another long line of things that makes Cruz impossible to like.
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MarkD
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2021, 10:17:39 AM »

I agree with the sarcasm in this post:
Everyone knows that Ted Cruzs' 5 Day long Cancun trip 4 years ago will be the #1 top issue in 2024 and the only issue anyone cares about.

And I agree with these posts too:
I think it's more damaging in a general election than in a primary.
The number of unforced errors we've been seeing from Cruz lately lead me to believe he's running for President only in 2024, and that he'll give up his senate seat.
He very well may be despised by Republicans on the Hill, but I don't think it really has been sufficiently demonstrated that he is particularly unpopular among rank-and-file Republican voters, despite that being such a prominent narrative. If my recollection serves, his approval ratings were never particularly poor in recent years, and I believe they often eclipsed Cornyn's.
It's never really about one single issue from years ago when it comes to these primaries, but rather it's about how voters generally feel about a given candidate and this Cancun thing is just one in another long line of things that makes Cruz impossible to like.

And just because Cruz is "impossible to like" does not mean that he is likely going to lose Texas in the 2024 Republican primary, ...... assuming that Trump does not run.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #18 on: February 25, 2021, 10:41:41 AM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.
Ted Cruz is weird. I don't really know who his base is or how he got his seat in the first place. A senator from Texas? You'd think there would be dozens of top tier candidates for that seat

I can't think of any other guy who has such a national profile yet is despised by nearly everyone, even his own party

He very well may be despised by Republicans on the Hill, but I don't think it really has been sufficiently demonstrated that he is particularly unpopular among rank-and-file Republican voters, despite that being such a prominent narrative. If my recollection serves, his approval ratings were never particularly poor in recent years, and I believe they often eclipsed Cornyn's.
In 2016, Trump won 4.7 million votes and Hillary won 3.9 million in Texas. Around 8.6 million voted.

In 2018, Cruz won 4.3 million and Beto won 4 million. Around 8.3 million voted

In 2018, Abbott won 4.7 million and 3.5 million. Around 8.2 million voted

That is about 400k voters who voted for both Beto and Abbott

If we assume that the general electorate for 2018 in Texas was roughly the same as 2016

That is 400k Republicans who voted for Beto because they hated Cruz (or loved Beto)

I can't think of any other red state where it was so clear. Sure, Beto was an amazing canidate but there was a lot of love lost for Cruz. If this state was Ohio or Florida, the GOP would have lost with so many cross overs

Basically, Cruz has some haters in the state GOP compared to Abbott and Cornyn
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2021, 11:08:28 AM »

I agree with the sarcasm in this post:
Everyone knows that Ted Cruzs' 5 Day long Cancun trip 4 years ago will be the #1 top issue in 2024 and the only issue anyone cares about.

And I agree with these posts too:
I think it's more damaging in a general election than in a primary.
The number of unforced errors we've been seeing from Cruz lately lead me to believe he's running for President only in 2024, and that he'll give up his senate seat.
He very well may be despised by Republicans on the Hill, but I don't think it really has been sufficiently demonstrated that he is particularly unpopular among rank-and-file Republican voters, despite that being such a prominent narrative. If my recollection serves, his approval ratings were never particularly poor in recent years, and I believe they often eclipsed Cornyn's.
It's never really about one single issue from years ago when it comes to these primaries, but rather it's about how voters generally feel about a given candidate and this Cancun thing is just one in another long line of things that makes Cruz impossible to like.

And just because Cruz is "impossible to like" does not mean that he is likely going to lose Texas in the 2024 Republican primary, ...... assuming that Trump does not run.

I don't think Trump's voters will flock to Cruz. I maintain that the best bet as far as the GOP primary goes is someone that had a low profile during the Trump years who can sweep the Republican voters off their feet with Trump-like rhetoric while also being able to honestly say he had nothing to do with any contentious issue between 2016-20.
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beesley
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2021, 12:41:51 PM »



If by culture war you mean Dan Crenshaw trying to beat the left at their own game by speaking at TPUSA events that affiliate with Rob Smith and Lady Maga.

Just had to google that to see that was in fact a real person.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2021, 12:09:37 AM »

Cancun changed nothing about Cruz's chances in a future primary. 2016 was his shot, he missed it, I'd be surprised if he had credible ambitions in the future, but I would not rule it out completely.
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AlterEgo
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« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2021, 01:57:33 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.
Ted Cruz is weird. I don't really know who his base is or how he got his seat in the first place. A senator from Texas? You'd think there would be dozens of top tier candidates for that seat

I can't think of any other guy who has such a national profile yet is despised by nearly everyone, even his own party

He very well may be despised by Republicans on the Hill, but I don't think it really has been sufficiently demonstrated that he is particularly unpopular among rank-and-file Republican voters, despite that being such a prominent narrative. If my recollection serves, his approval ratings were never particularly poor in recent years, and I believe they often eclipsed Cornyn's.

Well, a Yahoo/YouGov poll from about a week ago found Cruz at 24% approve, 49% disapprove. Do with that what you will.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2021, 03:57:58 PM »

The number of unforced errors we've been seeing from Cruz lately lead me to believe he's running for President only in 2024, and that he'll give up his senate seat.

I completely agree
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VAR
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« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2021, 04:03:32 PM »

A top tier opponent like Crenshaw could take him down in the primary for sure.  He's clearly a long term liability and an underperformer vs. generic R.  This latest misstep may not matter by itself, but it's one of many.

Crenshaw is an idiot.

That's why he's gone so far. Committed GOP voters, and especially what fewer younger voters they're picking up still, don't remotely want policy wonks. He delivers all the sound and fury of the culture war without outwardly taking a stance on anything, and that's his appeal and why he's the face of the younger right.

And that’s why he’s terrible.
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