Are People underestimating Democratic Chances at WI in 2024?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I have seen people say that Democrats are likely to lose WI in 2024, but I disagree.

One argument for people who say WI Dems are likely to lose is "Biden underperformed Obama, so WI Dems are doomed." Obama was a uniquely strong candidate for the midwest. Biden did better than Gore/Kerry/H. Clinton in WI. Some people say that WI has shifted republican relative to the nation over the decades, but WI Voted to the right of the nation in 2016, 2000, and 1992, along with 2020. How states have voted relative to the nation doesn't matter anyway, as TX/CA have shifted 20% to the left since 2004. WI may have voted to the right of the nation, but Biden won all of WI's 10 EVs, and that is what matters.

Another argument is "Biden fought very hard to win WI, and he barely won it." Trump fought very hard in WI too, and he campaigned more than Biden in WI. Trump barely paid attention to WI in 2016, but he still won it. Romney fought very hard to win OH, but he lost it, but almost every Republlican won it in the future. I have found little evidence that where candidates "try" matters. Biden didn't spend much many in GA, but he dumped millions into Florida. Guess which voted Dem in 2020.

Democrats also have many areas which they could improve upon in WI. Milwaukee County went from Gore+20 to Biden+40 and may get bluer. Dane is growing in population, and Biden got 120K more votes than Gore. It remains to be seen as to whether or not Trump was a uniquely good fit for the Driftless, but almost no republicans have beat his performance their since 2016, and even some people like Ron Johnson who overperformed Trump in 2016/2010 or Scott Walker who overperformed Trump in 2010/2012/2014 underperformed Trump in the driftless area.

Feel free to disagree, I am interested in hearing other peoples opinions.

[Roll Roons]

Yes. Democrats do have room to fall in the rural areas, but they can improve in the Green Bay-Appleton-Oshkosh corridor and in WOW. Internal trends will keep this state perennially close for quite some time.

[neostassenite31]

I do think that the WI contest in 2024 is a tossup, but like I mentioned in multiple prior posts, it's certain exit poll breakdowns and the fact that WI has continuously trended right relative to the NPV every single cycle since 2008 (not that it's simply voting to the right of the NPV) that really concerns me with regards to this state.


Here are the exit poll breakdowns from 2020 (again) by AP/NORC:
42% of voters are Conservative, 28% are Liberal, 30% ae Moderates (Biden+30)
51% leans Republican, 44% leans Democratic, 5% Independents (Biden+10)
48% has favorable opinion of Republican Party, 40% has favorable opinion of Democratic Party

What this data say is that Biden basically destroyed Trump among moderate voters in Wisconsin (+30 points) and won a double digit lead among independents (+10 points), and still he only very barely eked out a win at less than 0.6 percentage points.

The last breakdown also implies that Biden won not because the Democratic Party image is popular in Wisconsin; in fact, the image of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is actually worse than the image of the Republican Party. Biden won because of strong anti-Trump sentiments, winning over some voters who actually approve of the Republican Party.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Not 2024 so much as it seems people are totally writing off their chances at the Senate seat in 2022.

[Galeel]

I do think that the WI contest in 2024 is a tossup, but like I mentioned in multiple prior posts, it's certain exit poll breakdowns and the fact that WI has continuously trended right relative to the NPV every single cycle since 2008 (not that it's simply voting to the right of the NPV) that really concerns me with regards to this state.


Here are the exit poll breakdowns from 2020 (again) by AP/NORC:
42% of voters are Conservative, 28% are Liberal, 30% ae Moderates (Biden+30)
51% leans Republican, 44% leans Democratic, 5% Independents (Biden+10)
48% has favorable opinion of Republican Party, 40% has favorable opinion of Democratic Party

What this data say is that Biden basically destroyed Trump among moderate voters in Wisconsin (+30 points) and won a double digit lead among independents (+10 points), and still he only very barely eked out a win at less than 0.6 percentage points.

The last breakdown also implies that Biden won not because the Democratic Party image is popular in Wisconsin; in fact, the image of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is actually worse than the image of the Republican Party. Biden won because of strong anti-Trump sentiments, winning over some voters who actually approve of the Republican Party.

Democrats always win self-identified moderates, so we shouldn't act as if they are a toss up group.

[SN2903]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024. Get over it.

[MargieCat]

Long term, WI looks good for democrats.

Madison is growing, and getting more democratic.

Milwaukee narrowly got more democratic, and republicans underperformed in the WOW counties.

Also, exit polls show that younger voters 18-29 by a 23 point margin.

Voters 45-64 and 65+ voted republican by 5 and 6 point margins.

The grim reaper will play its role in making the state more blue.
   

[ꙮ]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024 2020. Get over it.

We've heard this all before.

The state is definitely moving away long term, but acting like a state that's like 4 points right of the nation is impossible to win next time is silly.

[Bomster]

I was surprised to see even the mighty WOW suburbs trend Democrat. Plus I feel like Trump was uniquely capable of mobilizing large amounts of rural voters. Republicans may soon run into the same troubles without Trump on the ballot as Democrats did without Obama.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024. Get over it.

You really think Biden is gonna lose WI after Cook rates T Evers, our Gov as tilt D, Baldwin is up and she won by 10 pts in 2018. She will win comfortably in 2024

Stabenow won by 6 pts in 2018, she has won all of her races by landslides and she is up in 2024. Stabenow beat your John James too

[Frenchrepublican]

I do think that the WI contest in 2024 is a tossup, but like I mentioned in multiple prior posts, it's certain exit poll breakdowns and the fact that WI has continuously trended right relative to the NPV every single cycle since 2008 (not that it's simply voting to the right of the NPV) that really concerns me with regards to this state.


Here are the exit poll breakdowns from 2020 (again) by AP/NORC:
42% of voters are Conservative, 28% are Liberal, 30% ae Moderates (Biden+30)
51% leans Republican, 44% leans Democratic, 5% Independents (Biden+10)
48% has favorable opinion of Republican Party, 40% has favorable opinion of Democratic Party

What this data say is that Biden basically destroyed Trump among moderate voters in Wisconsin (+30 points) and won a double digit lead among independents (+10 points), and still he only very barely eked out a win at less than 0.6 percentage points.

The last breakdown also implies that Biden won not because the Democratic Party image is popular in Wisconsin; in fact, the image of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is actually worse than the image of the Republican Party. Biden won because of strong anti-Trump sentiments, winning over some voters who actually approve of the Republican Party.

Yeah, it explains why republican won the congressional vote by 3, you had a non negligible amount of Biden/GOP voters, especially in WOW counties.

[Frenchrepublican]

Long term, WI looks good for democrats.

Madison is growing, and getting more democratic.

Milwaukee narrowly got more democratic, and republicans underperformed in the WOW counties.

Also, exit polls show that younger voters 18-29 by a 23 point margin.

Voters 45-64 and 65+ voted republican by 5 and 6 point margins.

The grim reaper will play its role in making the state more blue.
   

No, political analysis don't work like that, you can ask Rudy Texeira, if we follow your logic democrats should have a permanent majority now considering they have won the young vote in each election since 1992, the problem for them is that some people change their voting patterns.

Besides, in the case of WI, Dane + Milwaukee accounts for less than one quarter of the state electorate, so relying on these areas only could be a problem if the slippage in the rest of the state continue, dems can win MN using a urban strategy only, but in WI it will not work.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wisconsin is clearly one of the most problematic state for dems in the immediate future.

You say that the relative partisan lean of a state doesn't matter, it is true if you assume that democrats are going to win the PV by at least 5 points in every future presidential election, otherwise it still a key data. Also you are pointing out that Biden won the state by a slightly larger margin than Kerry in 2004, true, but in 2004 Bush won the PV by 2, in 2020 Trump lost it by 4.5 ; the fact that WI didn't move left while the country swung 6.5 points to the left is telling.

Another fact, the city of Milwaukee + Dane account for 18% of the electorate and even if you include the whole county of Milwkaukee, MKE county + Dane account for less than one quarter of the electorate, it is not enough to win the state if you lose the rest of the state by +20 points and it is very likely that in the few next years democrats are going to lose a lot of ground in these areas which are located outside of the two major metro areas, why ? Because they still have a lot of ground to lose in the rural/small town areas compared to similar areas in IA, after all Trump got more than 70% in only two counties and you can bet that the number of R+70% counties will increase substantially over the next few years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not problematic when Cook rates the Gov race Lean D and we have a good chance of unseating Johnson about his comments about Trump not inviting Insurrectionists

[Sir Mohamed]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024. Get over it.

This post is pure partisan hackery. Saying a state is gone for the party that won last time while there has not even been a statewide election in the meantime is ridiculous. I'm not saying Biden or Harris is poised to win WI again, but there is at least a 50% chance. It's even unclear who the GOP nominee will be, and an establishment figure may have far fewer chances against an incumbent prez than a populist like Trump. Sure, WI was close in 2000 and 2004, too, but there is zero evidence it's gone for Dems other than your (tiresome) wishful thinking.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes and no.

[Pollster]

Important to remember that Wisconsin is one of the only states in the country that even comes close to Florida in terms of the deficit between Republican and Democratic turnout. A lot of this is due to how well-organized and resilient the Walker/Priebus machine has been over the past decade at energizing and turning out Republican voters, and how successful the state's lawmakers (led by Walker) were at consolidating institutional power and using it to minimize and suppress Democratic turnout.

To continue competing in the state Dems need to learn that power begets power. Yes, the state is home to a series of trends and countertrends, but there needs to be organization to take advantage of them. Ben Wikler was widely lauded for his organization this cycle, but the strongest move Democrats can make for their long-term success here (whether you believe it's good policy or not, I'm talking electoral strategy here) is to use the power they have maximize their vote.

[South Dakota Democrat]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024. Get over it.

Demanding, aren't we?

[redjohn]

Trumpism is toxic in the suburbs and urban areas, and golden in rural areas, just like many other states. Given the direction of the GOP, Republicans will just continue to fall in Waukesha+Ozaukee, the Madison metro area, and cities in the Fox Valley. Republicans will just continue to improve in the rural counties. With Wisconsin's current population distribution, that does set up Wisconsin to continue to be a battleground for a while, but like others have said the population trends in Dane and the Waukesha area are clear. Democrats will not be, by any means, locked out on the federal level even if they continue to do worse with non-educated white voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No. They aren't winning WI in 2024. Get over it.

Demanding, aren't we?

Rs think the EC map only is 278, not 535 and AZ which is 292 is R, they think that Ds can never win WI, OH, NC and FL nevermore, which is not true

[Frenchrepublican]

Trumpism is toxic in the suburbs and urban areas, and golden in rural areas, just like many other states. Given the direction of the GOP, Republicans will just continue to fall in Waukesha+Ozaukee, the Madison metro area, and cities in the Fox Valley. Republicans will just continue to improve in the rural counties. With Wisconsin's current population distribution, that does set up Wisconsin to continue to be a battleground for a while, but like others have said the population trends in Dane and the Waukesha area are clear. Democrats will not be, by any means, locked out on the federal level even if they continue to do worse with non-educated white voters.

Continue to fall ? Trump did better than Romney in the 3 ''urban'' counties of the Fox Valley.