VA primaries - CNU: McAuliffe +12 over Fairfax | Chase +7 over Cox

[VAR]

January 31-February 14
1,005 registered voters
MoE: 3.4%

VA-GOV Dem:

McAuliffe 26%
Fairfax 12%
McClellan 4%
Carroll Foy 4%
Carter 1%
Someone else 0%
Undecided 49%
Don’t know/refused 5%

VA-GOV Rep:

Chase 17%
Cox 10%
Snyder 6%
Youngkin 3%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 55%
Don’t know/refused 7%

VA-LG Dem:

Ayala 2%
Guzman 2%
Levine 2%
McClellan 2%
Rasoul 2%
Warren 2%
Goldman 1%
Perryman 1%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 78%
Don’t know/refused 9%

VA-LG Rep:

Davis 8%
Hugo 4%
Sears 2%
Allen 1%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 71%
Don’t know/refused 14%

VA-AG Dem:

Herring (inc.) 42%
Jones 3%
Undecided 50%
Don’t know/refused 5%

VA-AG Rep:

Smith 10%
Haley 5%
Miyares 3%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 68%
Don’t know/refused 14%

Favorabilities:

McAuliffe - 25/21 (+4)
Carroll Foy - 5/3 (+2)
Carter - 2/5 (-3)
McClellan - 8/4 (+4)
Fairfax - 17/20 (-3)
Cox - 6/5 (+1)
Chase - 9/14 (-5)
Youngkin - 3/2 (+1)
Snyder - 5/3 (+2)

Northam approval: 54/40
Generic ballot: 49/37 D

[UncleSam]

Likely bordering on Safe D. McAulliffe wins by 10-15, Fairfax would still probably win a close race but would keep it in the somewhat competitive column.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Wow, practically no name rec at all for Carter. But yeah this is probably TMac's race to lose. Ugh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, no surprise, Trump cratered R chances in VA due to his Insurrection

[Astatine]

So get ready for Governor-elect U. N. Decided.

[Canis]

Wow Fairfax at second place is kind of a shocker to me.

[Holmes]

This is such a trashy poll.

[President Johnson]

Seems like junk, but the rapist gets way too much support.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems like junk, but the rapist non-Terry candidates get way too much support.

Fixed

[Skill and Chance]

It's going to end up being Fairfax vs. Chase, isn't it?

[Bootes Void]

It's going to end up being Fairfax vs. Chase, isn't it?

I think T-Mac will probably win although that would be a really hilarious matchup

[MT Treasurer]

Likely bordering on Safe D. McAulliffe wins by 10-15, Fairfax would still probably win a close race but would keep it in the somewhat competitive column.

I don’t think McAuliffe would win by double digits (or certainly not by more than Biden), and I don’t think the race would be that close even with Fairfax as the D nominee — probably a 5- to 6-point D win.

Agree with your rating, though.

[SnowLabrador]

The generic ballot is somewhat encouraging. Then again, I don't believe the polls anymore.

[TodayJunior]

Democrat +12-13 margin

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The generic ballot is somewhat encouraging. Then again, I don't believe the polls anymore.

You don't believe the polls in a state the polls were accurate in? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/virginia/