Who outperforms polls and by how much?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Compared to the polling average of Trump vs Biden on election night, who will a polling error benefit PV wise?
In 2016 and 2020 Trump had massive polling errors in his favour, and in 2022 polling was mostly accurate apart from a few swing states which narrowly underestimated democrats.
Right now Biden and Trump are about tied in the national average.

[DaleCooper]

If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).

[wbrocks67]

I think it depends on how much pollsters keep botching specific groups. If they continue to botch non college white voters, then Trump could outperform. but if they continue to botch young voters like they've been doing, could mean a Biden overperformance.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden will outperform vs. Trump. The 2020 polling error was largely caused by pandemic-era oversampling of stay-at-home voters and they are now oversampling Trump votes.

It’s close to a wash with DeSantis. A lot of conservative never-Trump Republicans will come home to DeSantis but the moderates probably break towards Biden.

A Haley/Youngkin type probably outperforms polls though like Youngkin did in 2021.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).

If the current polling holds then Trump wins, given that anything less than a 3% PV Biden wins is a Trump win.
Again, Biden is basically tied in current polling.

[DaleCooper]

If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).

If the current polling holds then Trump wins, given that anything less than a 3% PV Biden wins is a Trump win.
Again, Biden is basically tied in current polling.

I don't really see why that would be the case either since it appears that Republicans have made gains in the big blue states like New York and California, as well as Florida. If anything the popular vote will be closer to the electoral college.

I don't believe that Biden and Trump are not actually even. There's no reason to believe that beyond polls that have been wrong about everything for years.

[Spectator]

Compared to polling now? I think Biden beats Trump and that it won’t be very close and that he’ll win by a wider margin than in 2020.

Trump hatred runs much stronger than any Biden hatred, as the last two cycles have shown. Even if people are lukewarm on Biden, he really hasn’t proved to be the focal point of any election. It’s all about Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

Trump.

He's a lightning rod that really brings out the base like no other. He'll probably be polled with a double digit disadvantage at parts, average 6-8 loss, only to come up short by 2-4 points instead, which might even be enough to tip the EC.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Neutral.
I believe that Latinos will continue to get Republican and that the R polling bias in the southwest will decline(not necessarily switch)
However, I believe ME/NH will underestimate democrats as secular wwc get more democratic due to abortion and GOP moralizing

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).

If the current polling holds then Trump wins, given that anything less than a 3% PV Biden wins is a Trump win.
Again, Biden is basically tied in current polling.

It would be funny if the reverse happens(D Electoral college, R popular vote) just to see Republican reactions

[Spectator]

If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).

If the current polling holds then Trump wins, given that anything less than a 3% PV Biden wins is a Trump win.
Again, Biden is basically tied in current polling.

It would be funny if the reverse happens(D Electoral college, R popular vote) just to see Republican reactions

With Florida becoming a Republican mega state and NY and CA showing signs of Biden 2020 being the Dem peak, I don’t think its out of the question that scenario could happen in a future close election. Georgia and Arizona look to be on their way to voting to the left of the country before long.

The more conservative retirees that move to Florida from swing states in the rust belt, the likelier it becomes. Florida has basically marketed itself for this to happen.

[SnowLabrador]

Relative to current polling, Biden. But the election is still a tossup.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden will outperform vs. Trump. The 2020 polling error was largely caused by pandemic-era oversampling of stay-at-home voters and they are now oversampling Trump votes.

It’s close to a wash with DeSantis. A lot of conservative never-Trump Republicans will come home to DeSantis but the moderates probably break towards Biden.

A Haley/Youngkin type probably outperforms polls though like Youngkin did in 2021.

Youngkin did not overperform his polls.