Oregon Is Turning Republican

[auburntiger]

Isn't Smith's seat up for re-election in 2008?

It seems to me that Left Oregon is getting more blue, not the other way around., so it will be harder for him to win

[Governor PiT]

How did Perot do in Oregon?

[Alcon]

How did Perot do in Oregon?

You know, there is a large chunk of this site dedicated to listing election results.

In 1996, he received 8.80% (8.40% nationally).  His performance ranged from 6.50% (Multnomah, containing Portland) to 14.40% (Harney).

In 1992, he received 24.21% (18.91% nationally).  His performance ranged from 19.52% (Multnomah) to 32.66% (Grant).  Perot placed second ahead of Clinton in Grant, Harney, Malheur and Wallowa.  He placed second ahead of Bush in Columbia and Lincoln.

Perot did unexceptionally.  Why do you ask, though?

[True Democrat]

How did Perot do in Oregon?

You know, there is a large chunk of this site dedicated to listing election results.

In 1996, he received 8.80% (8.40% nationally).  His performance ranged from 6.50% (Multnomah, containing Portland) to 14.40% (Harney).

In 1992, he received 24.21% (18.91% nationally).  His performance ranged from 19.52% (Multnomah) to 32.66% (Grant).  Perot placed second ahead of Clinton in Grant, Harney, Malheur and Wallowa.  He placed second ahead of Bush in Columbia and Lincoln.

Perot did unexceptionally.  Why do you ask, though?

So the Reform Party candidate can have a winning strategy in 2008 for Senator.

[Governor PiT]

Will Oregon become competitive in Presidential races? Bill Oreilly is always saying how Oregon is the most secular state, and it probably is one of the most socially liberal states, but I think a socially liberal to moderate republican could win in the senate or presidential race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Will Oregon become competitive in Presidential races? Bill Oreilly is always saying how Oregon is the most secular state, and it probably is one of the most socially liberal states, but I think a socially liberal to moderate republican could win in the senate or presidential race.

I doubt it's the most socially liberal, they did vote to ban gay marriage

[Kevin]

Will Oregon become competitive in Presidential races? Bill Oreilly is always saying how Oregon is the most secular state, and it probably is one of the most socially liberal states, but I think a socially liberal to moderate republican could win in the senate or presidential race.

Oregon almost went for Bush in 2000 and was fairly close in 2004. So yes a Republican could win here.

[Alcon]

Oregon is one of the least religious, but its religious population is not exceptionally liberal (unlike the Northeast, the PNW is liberal because it is less religious more than because the religious population is less conservative).  There are a lot of conservative, traditional areas, even if most people in them don't go to church.  I would argue that Washington is probably less influenced by religion, in that our religious population is probably less conservative and less evangelical.  But statistics basically show a three-way tie between NV, OR and WA for "most secular."

I can mostly see Oregon remaining the way it is now, all depending on whether or not the Democrats can do in Clackamas County what they did in Washington County.

[Smash255]

Will Oregon become competitive in Presidential races? Bill Oreilly is always saying how Oregon is the most secular state, and it probably is one of the most socially liberal states, but I think a socially liberal to moderate republican could win in the senate or presidential race.

Oregon almost went for Bush in 2000 and was fairly close in 2004. So yes a Republican could win here.

Its moving the wrong way for the GOP to win.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, Oregon does have many reliably Republican counties, most noticeably in the east, but also in parts of the west of the state but I wouldn't say the state as a whole is turning Republican

In fact, Democrats gained 4 net State House seats from the GOP giving them a bare 31/29 [i.e. 2 seat] majority, as well as comfortably holding 4 of the 5 Congressional seats

As states go, Oregon seems to have high proportion of Independent voters compared with many others and no doubt these Independents are breaking Democratic and, as of 2006, rather heavily

Dave

[ndcohn]

oregon is not turning republican...

these registration numbers don't translate to a republican majority.

Independents vote overwhelmingly democratic in the pacific northwest - they are secular, socially liberal, and not particularly ideological on economic/role of government questions.

Even if more registered republicans vote, they just can't outweigh the massive independent vote breaking 60% for the democrats. 2000 was as close as it was because Nader did better in OR then any other state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2000 was as close as it was because Nader did better in OR then any other state.

There's a slight difference between the numbers 1 and 11 you know...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Oregon is not turning Republican. Bush couldn't win it in either 2000 or 2004. 4 of the 5 congressmen are democrats, and the republican senator, Gordon Smith, is a moderate.

Oregon is not, as some have claimed, a center-right state; a more accurate description would probably be liberatarian or slightly liberal-leaning. Missouri, Virginia, and Arizona are center-right states, Oregon isn't.

[ottermax]

Oregon is somewhat polarized like Washington, but not as extreme. There are some very conservative people and some very liberal people, just like any other place, but Oregon is not turning Republican currently.

The majority of people in Oregon are liberal, but by a slim margin. It's definitely not center-right, in fact I would say it's pretty libertarian with a more liberal lean like strangeland said.