Georgia

[Bomster]

Georgia surprised everyone when it flipped blue in 2020, and then elected two democratic senators two months later. Georgia, like Arizona, is seemingly a blue state now. However, these margins were very narrow. Will Georgia flip back to the Republicans in 2024? Or will growth in the Atlanta Metro offset Republican gains.

[AlterEgo]

Georgia surprised everyone when it flipped blue in 2020, and then elected two democratic senators two months later. Georgia, like Arizona, is seemingly a blue state now. However, these margins were very narrow. Will Georgia flip back to the Republicans in 2024? Or will growth in the Atlanta Metro offset Republican gains.

If you have to ask if GA will flip back, then it's not a "blue state."

[Figueira]

It could flip back, but probably only if the Republicans are having a good year. It's almost certainly to the left of the tipping point, maybe to the left of the national popular vote.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Don't overestimate Dem chances at GA. It is still a swing state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

4 more years growth of ATL should give Democrats a bit more of a cushion, but we have to understand that in GA in 2020 Democrats had strong turnout where they needed it the most. If Democratic turnout is poor in 2024, it could easily flip back, but that probably means Ds are struggling across the board.

I do think some people are overrating how blue GA is just because Democrats had a very strong year in GA in 2020.

[Figueira]

4 more years growth of ATL should give Democrats a bit more of a cushion, but we have to understand that in GA in 2020 Democrats had strong turnout where they needed it the most. If Democratic turnout is poor in 2024, it could easily flip back, but that probably means Rs are struggling across the board.

I do think some people are overrating how blue GA is just because Democrats had a very strong year in GA in 2020.

I think Georgia going into 2024 is somewhat analogous to Virginia going into 2012. Obama won it, but the margin was pretty narrow and if Romney had won, he probably would have carried Virginia.

[Hammy]

4 more years growth of ATL should give Democrats a bit more of a cushion, but we have to understand that in GA in 2020 Democrats had strong turnout where they needed it the most. If Democratic turnout is poor in 2024, it could easily flip back, but that probably means Rs are struggling across the board.

I do think some people are overrating how blue GA is just because Democrats had a very strong year in GA in 2020.

I think Georgia going into 2024 is somewhat analogous to Virginia going into 2012. Obama won it, but the margin was pretty narrow and if Romney had won, he probably would have carried Virginia.

Virginia was pretty close to the national vote though, Georgia was 3-4 points to the right. I think Florida 2012 looks like the closest possible analogy, though Georgia is trending in the opposite direction.

[MargieCat]

Georgia is structurally a blue state going forward.

It can still vote red in wave years, but it's going to get harder and harder for republicans to carry.

[DaleCooper]

4 more years growth of ATL should give Democrats a bit more of a cushion, but we have to understand that in GA in 2020 Democrats had strong turnout where they needed it the most. If Democratic turnout is poor in 2024, it could easily flip back, but that probably means Ds are struggling across the board.

I do think some people are overrating how blue GA is just because Democrats had a very strong year in GA in 2020.

I agree with most of this, but I think part of why people are (potentially) overestimating GA 2024 is because Democrats had a very strong year in Georgia when they had a surprisingly weak year almost everywhere else. That context is important and I suspect that few people that were confident of Democrats' chances in GA back in 2020 would have guessed Biden and the Democratic Senate candidates would have won in a Biden +4 national environment.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Georgia surprised everyone when it flipped blue in 2020, and then elected two democratic senators two months later. Georgia, like Arizona, is seemingly a blue state now. However, these margins were very narrow. Will Georgia flip back to the Republicans in 2024? Or will growth in the Atlanta Metro offset Republican gains.

If you have to ask if GA will flip back, then it's not a "blue state."

Will Idaho flip Democratic in 2024?

[YE]

Georgia is likely gone for the Republicans given how inelastic the state is.

[Kuumo]

Georgia surprised everyone when it flipped blue in 2020, and then elected two democratic senators two months later. Georgia, like Arizona, is seemingly a blue state now. However, these margins were very narrow. Will Georgia flip back to the Republicans in 2024? Or will growth in the Atlanta Metro offset Republican gains.

If you have to ask if GA will flip back, then it's not a "blue state."

Will Idaho flip Democratic in 2024?

Give it up, Koopa. As an old Idahoan, I know that even with The Trends^TM your state is still 100 times more likely to flip in 2024 than my state. I do miss the good old days of Frank Church, but those days are long gone now.

[Hope For A New Era]

Georgia is so "locked" that I doubt much can change its trajectory. It will do what it wants. The state pretty much completely disregards the national environment.

2022 could be a state-level realigning election, or it could be the GAGOP's last hurrah. Regardless, 2024 starts out at at least Likely D. GA trended three points left from 2016. If it keeps up that pace, it will be voting almost even with the national popular vote in 2024, and probably to the left of it by 2026.

[Chips]

Don't overestimate Dem chances at GA. It is still a swing state.

[Figueira]

4 more years growth of ATL should give Democrats a bit more of a cushion, but we have to understand that in GA in 2020 Democrats had strong turnout where they needed it the most. If Democratic turnout is poor in 2024, it could easily flip back, but that probably means Rs are struggling across the board.

I do think some people are overrating how blue GA is just because Democrats had a very strong year in GA in 2020.

I think Georgia going into 2024 is somewhat analogous to Virginia going into 2012. Obama won it, but the margin was pretty narrow and if Romney had won, he probably would have carried Virginia.

Virginia was pretty close to the national vote though, Georgia was 3-4 points to the right. I think Florida 2012 looks like the closest possible analogy, though Georgia is trending in the opposite direction.

I wasn't making a point about how close Georgia was.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here's hoping that the trends remain permanent considering the continued trajectory of the GOP.

And as narrow as the wins for Democrats have been; Ossoff, and especially Warnock managing to win by over 1% within months of Biden's <1% shock win is pretty significant.

[Inmate Trump]

Ordinarily, it would be moving further blue.

But Republicans in the state government are working to make it almost impossible to vote, so that’s going to muddy things quite a bit.

[President Johnson]

Don't overestimate Dem chances at GA. It is still a swing state.

This. Same with Arizona. It's not a "blue state" either. They may follow the path of Virginia and Colorado, but that will most likely take a decade before these states are essentially out of reach for Republican officeseekers.