CA - Berkeley IGS: plurality against Newsom recall (+9%)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

January 23-29 2021
10,357 registered voters
MoE: 2%

KEEP 45%
RECALL 36%
Undecided 19%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are wasting money on a recall, Newsom isn't losing, with Trumpians popularity at an all time low, Cali don't like Trump and the R party is a minority party in the state

[President Johnson]

California polls often underestimate Democrats. Remember the Newsom +5 poll from 2018? However, if these numbers are backed up by more and high quality polls, Newsom shouldn't feel too safe and Democrats better run a backup candidate like Chiang, Breed or Kounalakis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Breed is Mayor and doesn't want to be Gov yet

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Statewide COVID positivity rates are at their lowest point in 3 months.

If this is Newsom's lowest point, it's honestly not a bad place at all to be in (As far as a recall is concerned). If we're on the road to recovery by summer, with vaccines being swiftly distributed, the new school year starting with physical learning & the economy not crumbling to shambles, Newsom will walk away from this easier than Scott Walker did his recall.

And that's not even getting into this becoming Biden/Trump Part 2 or the biggest showcase yet of the CA GOP's moderate/Trumpist dysfunction. Either scenario would be devastating for recall supporters.

My only worry is historically low turnout among statewide Democrats. We really hate voting in off-year elections.