GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

So in short, they are substantially more popular, as is the President, then when they won their seats?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Something tells me Herschel Walker's not gonna be the next Senator from Georgia y'all.https://twitter.com/BrianSlodysko/status/1418616454270885892

I wish I could say I believed this would be the end of this, but if there is one lesson of the last 4 years is that scandals don’t matter to Republicans. If anything, it’ll be ‘disproven’ by something, something, and then will be a nasty hoax by perfidious Democrats.

I still think he falls on his face, but we have reached a point where Republican scandals are more likely to hurt Democrats, because there will be no legal consequences, therefore it can’t be true, and it will be dutifully reported as baseless accusations. See Kavanaugh or basically everything Donald Trump has ever done.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’ve always thought Walker was going to fall on his face like virtual all celebrity candidacies and I see no reason to change that opinion.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I would love for GA-SEN 2022 to be a bit of a reverse FL-SEN 2018 but the thing is I'm not too sure if Walker is a Nelson and Warnock is a Scott.

The thing about the Senate this year is that the environment is going to be apocalyptically bad, but when you look at each competitive race, Republicans are nominating joke candidates. It’s celebrity dilettantes and head injury crazy types all the way I down. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see the Senate ending up even or even +1 D just on the strength of Republicans fumbling the nominations.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Walker only getting 68% in the primary IMO looks kinda rough for him. He had the whole thing to himself and couldn't even beat Kemp's share.

It’s almost like random celebrities don’t know what they are doing

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Yeah, I wouldn't be that surprised if Walker manages to blow this on a night where Laxalt/R nominee in AZ win handily and Oz squeaks by in PA. The good news is that Republicans don't need to win this seat to flip the Senate.

Honestly, Fetterman, Kelly, Warnock, and Laxalt all winning is plausible and it’s a 50-50 Senate again.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Because after a national trade guy his response is to suggest we ‘look at men who is looking at women who is looking at social media’

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

The reality is that the media will rerun this story, even if it turn out to be a nothing burger every single time Hershel Walker say or does something stupid, because balance.

Good damn it

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Warnock and Walker are now 50-50 in 538's Deluxe Senate model.  Warnock is a 57% favorite in the Classic model.

Delux model is crap. Just use the classic with the understanding that it’s a snapshot of if the election were held today and not a prediction of the future.