GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[NewYorkExpress]

He has a better chance at winning than Loeffler does....

[NewYorkExpress]

Yeah, I think it's obvious that Marjorie Taylor Greene is running, and Purdue knows he can't beat her in a statewide primary.

[NewYorkExpress]

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yeah, Republicans nominating Herschel Walker is probably the only way they lose this seat, much like the Ken Buck/Christine O'Donnell nominations in 2010.

Hell, Marjorie Taylor Greene probably could win, and she's insane. (But she's also very unlikely to run).

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes I'm aware of the news source, but it looks like Walker is out.
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1423479013327048706?s=20
And just like that, Georgia's chances of flipping red have dipped considerably.

Disagree.

Warnock's an underdog to any serious Republican in a Biden midterm.

Walker wasn't a serious Republican.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Warnock is favored to win the win the general election, largely because 2022 will be an anti-Biden year, but only if the race goes to a runoff.

Also, Walker is very much an underdog in a primary, even with Trump's endorsement. Large percentages, if not a massive majority of white Georgia Republicans won't vote for a black man under any circumstances, and Walker isn't going to win them over.

[NewYorkExpress]

Herschel Walker forced to cancel a fundraiser with a woman who has a swastika-shaped image in her Twitter profile.

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker has canceled a fundraiser hosted by a woman whose Twitter account featured a swastika-shaped image used to protest Covid-19 vaccine mandates.

"The previously scheduled event has been called off," said Mallory Blount, a spokeswoman for Walker's campaign. "Herschel is a strong friend of Israel and the Jewish community and opposes hatred and bigotry of all forms. Despite the fact that the apparent intent behind the graphic was to condemn government vaccine mandates, the symbol used is very offensive and does not reflect the values of Herschel Walker or his campaign."

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported that Walker would attend an event in Texas this weekend hosted by Bettina Sofia Viviano-Langlais, a film producer. Her Twitter account included a profile picture of a rendering of a swastika made out of medical needles. The image has been used by opponents of vaccine mandates. Viviano-Langlais has since removed the image.

Earlier on Wednesday, a Walker spokeswoman had defended Viviano-Langlais' profile picture as an "anti-mandatory vaccination graphic" in a statement to the AJC.

.....

Georgia Democrats attacked Walker over the issue Wednesday. "Herschel Walker defended a swastika, and canceling a fundraiser does not change the fact that he failed to condemn a hateful, anti-Semitic symbol," Democratic Party of Georgia spokesman Dan Gottlieb said in a statement.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mitch McConnell endorses Herschel Walker.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell is backing former football star Herschel Walker's Senate bid in Georgia, a sign that the Republican establishment is aligning behind Walker after initially holding concerns about the GOP candidate's viability.

McConnell over the summer had privately expressed concerns with Walker's potential candidacy and suggested to allies that former Georgia Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler should consider running again after their narrow losses in January, CNN reported. Some Republicans have raised concerns about abuse allegations against Walker and his ability to win a crucial seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

Silly as it may sound, will UGA winning the national championship be a boost to Walker's chances?

No. But if Kirby Smart were the Republican candidate, it would help him (of course, Kirby Smart might not actually be a Republican, but the point still stands).

[NewYorkExpress]

At this point, I'm not sure Warnock will even need a runoff to win. If Perdue had chosen to run here rather than his suicide run for Governor, he'd be up by 10 points right now.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Walker Campaign has fired political director Taylor Crowe.

Herschel Walker’s Senate campaign cut ties with its political director on Wednesday, CNN has learned, the move coming just days after The Daily Beast reported that the Georgia Republican paid for a woman’s abortion more than a decade ago.


The departure of Taylor Crowe, who previously held the same role on ex-GOP Sen. David Perdue’s failed bid for Georgia governor this year, comes just weeks before Election Day in the crucial Senate contest against Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock. With an evenly split Senate, Republicans are hoping to flip the Georgia seat as they look to take control of the chamber.

Two people familiar with the matter said Crowe was fired after suspected leaking to members of the media. It is unclear if there were any other factors at play.

Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise declined to comment when reached by CNN on Friday. Crowe himself did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

[NewYorkExpress]

His poor son…

Seriously, it's heartbreaking to think about.

This guy is clearly a broken person, and he's done a lot of harm to the people around him. These allegations from his ex-wife and now his son are of a repeatedly violent or unstable person. We're in extremely polarized times and many a Georgia conservative will hold their noses for Republican control, but they might rue even a win here. A Senator can't run from pulling a Preston Brooks or McLaurin-Tillman on a colleague they hate.

That's true. It's miracle Marjorie Taylor Greene hasn't murdered a colleague yet.