GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[nclib]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

November 2022 Senatorial - December 2022 Senatorial Runoff swing map (Atlas style):

Only 2 counties saw Warnock do more than 5 points better than November (including Walker's home county); only 11 counties saw Walker do more than 2 points better than November (and only 1 of those - Quitman - was greater than 3 points in his Walker's favor).

[Panda Express]

I didn't see it mentioned, but look at the top 3 Republican counties by raw vote margin:

Cherokee R+39,653
Hall R+29,651
Forsyth R+27,850

Forsyth, safely secure in its spot behind Cherokee for some time now, drops out of the top 2.

It was just a decade ago that Romney beat Obama 80-17 in Forsyth and was a meme county

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

November 2022 Senatorial - December 2022 Senatorial Runoff swing map (Atlas style):

Only 2 counties saw Warnock do more than 5 points better than November (including Walker's home county); only 11 counties saw Walker do more than 2 points better than November (and only 1 of those - Quitman - was greater than 3 points in his Walker's favor).

What’s being considered walkers home county here?

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

November 2022 Senatorial - December 2022 Senatorial Runoff swing map (Atlas style):

Only 2 counties saw Warnock do more than 5 points better than November (including Walker's home county); only 11 counties saw Walker do more than 2 points better than November (and only 1 of those - Quitman - was greater than 3 points in his Walker's favor).

What’s being considered walkers home county here?

Johnson County, where he was born, raised and apparently threatened to call the Sheriff there after the November results to figure out who didn't vote for him because he expected to win 100% of the vote.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1601634237383577601

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1601943604758708225

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

I also just realized that in contrast to the swing map I posted earlier, the 2022 Atlas swing map for GA-SEN appears to be comparing it to the 2021 Senate special runoff. This is abnormal, as usually, Atlas maps compare to the last regular election for the seat in question (which would have been Isakson's re-election). I haven't ran the figures to be sure about my initial claim there wrt 2021 runoff versus 2022 runoff, but it seems to be the most logical comparison on paper.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

I also just realized that in contrast to the swing map I posted earlier, the 2022 Atlas swing map for GA-SEN appears to be comparing it to the 2021 Senate special runoff. This is abnormal, as usually, Atlas maps compare to the last regular election for the seat in question (which would have been Isakson's re-election). I haven't ran the figures to be sure about my initial claim there wrt 2021 runoff versus 2022 runoff, but it seems to be the most logical comparison on paper.

I mean, that's the least of that map's problem, given that even the results map still shows the November election results rather than the runoff results (eg. Washington and Baldwin are colored as Walker wins and lots of shades are wrong).

Dave really dropped the ball this year, honestly. Starting to get the feeling he's lost his passion for election data.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1603029221022236672

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No questions asked we are best able to hold onto the S in 24 due to fact Biden polls are inclining and Warnock improved on his Nov performance

[forsythvoter]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

Nice map, thanks for posting it.  Unsurprisingly, my precinct in northwestern Forsyth went for Walker by a 3:1 margin.  Sigh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

I think a lot of these Northern Atlanta Suburbs are powered more by fundamental demographic changes than people tend to assume. For the past 2 decades, the entire ATL has prolly had one of the most consistent and hardest swings left. On the south side, it's a bit more "obvious" because of black spillover into places like Henry and Douglas Counties.

On the northern side, it seems like more conservative whites are being replaced by more liberal college ed whites for which we have less concrete data to prove. You also have notable and growing Hispanic and Asian pooulations.

[forsythvoter]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

I think a lot of these Northern Atlanta Suburbs are powered more by fundamental demographic changes than people tend to assume. For the past 2 decades, the entire ATL has prolly had one of the most consistent and hardest swings left. On the south side, it's a bit more "obvious" because of black spillover into places like Henry and Douglas Counties.

On the northern side, it seems like more conservative whites are being replaced by more liberal college ed whites for which we have less concrete data to prove. You also have notable and growing Hispanic and Asian pooulations.

There's definitely an element of generational replacement driving the shifts in the northern ATL suburbs, but I think the extent really depends on the specific area. In my neighborhood in south Forsyth County, you can definitely see this shift happening with a noticeable contingent of newcomers who are liberal / moderate millennials replacing retirees who are moving to Florida or Gainsville or some other more rural area.

Much of East Cobb (the area I have in mind is around Hightower, Garrison Mill, Pope and Chestnut Ridge) / Western North Fulton (i.e., Roswell, Mountain Park) though are largely built out areas with much lower levels of housing turnover. Part of this is because there aren't that many multi-family housing units where transiency is naturally high but it might also be because Cobb (not Fulton) has a property tax exemption where once you're 62, you essentially pay no property taxes on your house, which keeps a lot of the retiree set from moving away. Certainly there is still housing turnover, but not on the scale that you see in areas like Johns Creek or Forsyth.

With this context in mind, some of these precincts like my parents' in East Cobb have shifted 8-10 points left since 2020 - so I feel like generational replacement or demographic change would explain only half the shift at most. Similar shifts can also be observed in parts of Sandy Springs and Buckhead with similar dynamics btw.

[forsythvoter]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

Nice map, thanks for posting it.  Unsurprisingly, my precinct in northwestern Forsyth went for Walker by a 3:1 margin.  Sigh.

From what I understand, 25% for a D is actually pretty historically high for a D in Northern Forsyth County! Here in southern Forsyth County, even with all the growth, it's still pretty crazy to see how quickly Ds have become competitive. Warnock cleared 40% in virtually every precinct in the area, and he was around or above 45% in half the precincts. A decade ago, Ds were in the teens in precincts in this area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

I think a lot of these Northern Atlanta Suburbs are powered more by fundamental demographic changes than people tend to assume. For the past 2 decades, the entire ATL has prolly had one of the most consistent and hardest swings left. On the south side, it's a bit more "obvious" because of black spillover into places like Henry and Douglas Counties.

On the northern side, it seems like more conservative whites are being replaced by more liberal college ed whites for which we have less concrete data to prove. You also have notable and growing Hispanic and Asian pooulations.

There's definitely an element of generational replacement driving the shifts in the northern ATL suburbs, but I think the extent really depends on the specific area. In my neighborhood in south Forsyth County, you can definitely see this shift happening with a noticeable contingent of newcomers who are liberal / moderate millennials replacing retirees who are moving to Florida or Gainsville or some other more rural area.

Much of East Cobb (the area I have in mind is around Hightower, Garrison Mill, Pope and Chestnut Ridge) / Western North Fulton (i.e., Roswell, Mountain Park) though are largely built out areas with much lower levels of housing turnover. Part of this is because there aren't that many multi-family housing units where transiency is naturally high but it might also be because Cobb (not Fulton) has a property tax exemption where once you're 62, you essentially pay no property taxes on your house, which keeps a lot of the retiree set from moving away. Certainly there is still housing turnover, but not on the scale that you see in areas like Johns Creek or Forsyth.

With this context in mind, some of these precincts like my parents' in East Cobb have shifted 8-10 points left since 2020 - so I feel like generational replacement or demographic change would explain only half the shift at most. Similar shifts can also be observed in parts of Sandy Springs and Buckhead with similar dynamics btw.

Huh this is really interesting context I didn't know, but ig it makes sense. Cobb also seems to have been built up for a while now relative to outer Gwinnett, northern Fulton, and Forsyth, so there's just less to build. Reminds me a bit of Tarrant County in TX; heavily minority D precincts vote D but the suburbs are relatively well-to-do, built up, and seem to experience less turnover than suburbs in neighboring Dallas counties, and obv the suburbs in Collin and Denton are new and growing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

Nice map, thanks for posting it.  Unsurprisingly, my precinct in northwestern Forsyth went for Walker by a 3:1 margin.  Sigh.

From what I understand, 25% for a D is actually pretty historically high for a D in Northern Forsyth County! Here in southern Forsyth County, even with all the growth, it's still pretty crazy to see how quickly Ds have become competitive. Warnock cleared 40% in virtually every precinct in the area, and he was around or above 45% in half the precincts. A decade ago, Ds were in the teens in precincts in this area.

To me, it seems like Atlanta's influence only started hitting Forsyth County at the start of the century; prior to that it was effectively a rural county politically.

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

[forsythvoter]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

Nice map, thanks for posting it.  Unsurprisingly, my precinct in northwestern Forsyth went for Walker by a 3:1 margin.  Sigh.

From what I understand, 25% for a D is actually pretty historically high for a D in Northern Forsyth County! Here in southern Forsyth County, even with all the growth, it's still pretty crazy to see how quickly Ds have become competitive. Warnock cleared 40% in virtually every precinct in the area, and he was around or above 45% in half the precincts. A decade ago, Ds were in the teens in precincts in this area.

To me, it seems like Atlanta's influence only started hitting Forsyth County at the start of the century; prior to that it was effectively a rural county politically.

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Yes, there definitely is a booming Asian population in this area. I'm not as familiar with the political trends within the Asian community, but I think on balance, the group is probably something like 60/40 D (maybe 65/35 D). To break it down further, the sense I get from talking to some of our Asian neighbors and friends is that the South Asian community tends to trend pretty heavily D while the East Asian community (Korean, Chinese predominately) are more politically divided. The East Asian small business owner contingent actually is pretty visible in the local R groups.

I've heard good things about State Senator (now state rep) Au btw. She's not my representative, but it's pretty cool that she's the only elected doctor in the GA legislature. Feels like we need more of those folks if we're trying to set policies on topics like abortion but I digress.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I was looking at some election twitter maps and found a pretty neat interactive map of the GA Senate runoff results by vote type by precinct here:

https://live-election-map.web.app/

Looking at the map, I'm pretty shocked to see so many precincts in the northern Atlanta suburbs that went for Trump in 2020, but flip to Warnock in this race. Trump even while winning those precincts in 2020 did extremely poorly for a R, so I had thought there would be a bit of a snapback in those precincts given Trump wasn't on the ballot. Warnock may even have been the first candidate in modern history to win my parents' precinct in East Cobb (which went R even during the Carter years).

Nice map, thanks for posting it.  Unsurprisingly, my precinct in northwestern Forsyth went for Walker by a 3:1 margin.  Sigh.

From what I understand, 25% for a D is actually pretty historically high for a D in Northern Forsyth County! Here in southern Forsyth County, even with all the growth, it's still pretty crazy to see how quickly Ds have become competitive. Warnock cleared 40% in virtually every precinct in the area, and he was around or above 45% in half the precincts. A decade ago, Ds were in the teens in precincts in this area.

To me, it seems like Atlanta's influence only started hitting Forsyth County at the start of the century; prior to that it was effectively a rural county politically.

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Yes, there definitely is a booming Asian population in this area. I'm not as familiar with the political trends within the Asian community, but I think on balance, the group is probably something like 60/40 D (maybe 65/35 D). To break it down further, the sense I get from talking to some of our Asian neighbors and friends is that the South Asian community tends to trend pretty heavily D while the East Asian community (Korean, Chinese predominately) are more politically divided. The East Asian small business owner contingent actually is pretty visible in the local R groups.

I've heard good things about State Senator (now state rep) Au btw. She's not my representative, but it's pretty cool that she's the only elected doctor in the GA legislature. Feels like we need more of those folks if we're trying to set policies on topics like abortion but I digress.

I believe I've read that there's about 50K-60K (Asian) Indian-American registered voters in GA.  A small but notable chunk of my Desi friends are clustered around the Atlanta area. 

All but one or two are progressive-types who I presume voted for Warnock.  Would love to see the overall stats on GA Indian-American voters. 

[Gracile]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Approvals are Stella on all our Incumbents that's why we have a chance to hold the S even in 24, anyways Ron DeSantis cannot win the Prez without VA or AZ and WI not just winning OH, MT, and WVa, but don't look at the partisan trends of the state it's based on Approval too

[soundchaser]

The Approvals are Stella on all our Incumbents

Woof!

[Adam Griffin]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

[Gracile]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.

[Adam Griffin]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.

It makes a lot of sense. I tried to search for a years-old post of mine (to no avail) discussing how pretty much through 2012 or 2014, there was a solid wall all along the Fulton and Clayton sides of the boundary where there were nothing but >80% D precincts...only to cross into Fayette and have a couple of nominally-Democratic precincts surrounded by a wall of R precincts countywide.

Ten to fifteen years ago, the Fayette-Fulton-Clayton line was arguably the most distinct indicator of racial segregation in the entire metro ATL area. Now, close to half of its mass is contained within Democratic precincts.