GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires
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Author Topic: GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires  (Read 147625 times)
Horus
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« Reply #2675 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:22 PM »
Baldwin county appears to be all in. It has flipped from Walker to Warnock.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2676 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:26 PM »
Speaking of rurals being static - Treutlen County almost all in, 70.5-29.1 Walker in Nov, 70.7-29.3 Walker now.   
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2677 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:37 PM »


Lol swing map cursed
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2678 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:38 PM »
I was so ready for PredictIt to freak out and give Walker the edge. I would have placed one final $850 bet on Warnock in that case, taking MAGA money one last time.

Alas, the dumbest MAGAts must be bankrupt now, as they actually had a fairly measured response to tonight's swings.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2679 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:52 PM »
Kornaki just talking about Oconee county...

Walker went up 1.3%
Warnock went up by 1.4%
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Person Man
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« Reply #2680 on: December 06, 2022, 08:20:54 PM »
Probably  Warlock now.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2681 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:07 PM »
Quote from: Horus on December 06, 2022, 08:20:22 PM
Baldwin county appears to be all in. It has flipped from Walker to Warnock.

That's atrocious for Walker.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2682 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:13 PM »
Kornacki is calling Oconee a wash for Walker compared to November, not enough. Sad!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2683 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:25 PM »
Needle starting to come in line with polling averages now.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2684 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:30 PM »
Looks like Warnock barely flipped Baldwin County in central GA, at least according to NYT, which has >95% of the vote in there (about 13,500 votes cast). Walker won it by half a point in November.

Definitely a good result for Ds.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2685 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:47 PM »

This whole election is one big advertisement for IRV.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2686 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:53 PM »
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2687 on: December 06, 2022, 08:21:59 PM »
Anyone notice the lack of blue avatars in this thread?
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #2688 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:05 PM »

>Warlock
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2689 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:07 PM »
Needle just jumped again in Warnock's favor as more northern GA came in
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here2view
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« Reply #2690 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:27 PM »
Needle up to 77% for Warnock.

Goodnight Walker.
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Gracile
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« Reply #2691 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:31 PM »
Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2692 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:34 PM »
Needle says Warnock by 2.4 points now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2693 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:35 PM »

Its getting fed more suburban data. The model initially had none so had to expect them to behave like the rural. But Glynn and Oconee came in, and they offer a better picture on the GOP suburbs. Also more suburban Eday vote. And they spell doom for Walker - not cause margins, cause net votes.
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #2694 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:38 PM »
Sumter county, home of Jimmy Carter, is 71% in and 61-39 for Warnock.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2695 on: December 06, 2022, 08:22:40 PM »

The mods appear to have permablocked one prominent blue avatar for me. Nothing of value was lost tbh.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #2696 on: December 06, 2022, 08:23:24 PM »

American went from Not A Witch in 2010 to Definitely A Warlock in 2022. Character development!
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Pollster
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« Reply #2697 on: December 06, 2022, 08:23:37 PM »
Folks need to remember that the electoral strategy (using that term loosely) of the modern-day Republican Party is to get bigger and bigger margins in shrinking areas while getting blown out by bigger and bigger margins in growing areas. I don't think anybody here needs me to explain the implications of such a dynamic.

Walker's inconsistent over/underperformances throughout the state tonight are a perfect example of this.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2698 on: December 06, 2022, 08:23:38 PM »
Kornacki seems all but ready to call it for Warnock.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2699 on: December 06, 2022, 08:23:58 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 06, 2022, 08:21:53 PM


Interesting, so more D's voting day-of.
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