GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[wbrocks67]

So far, Warnock/Ds outspending Walker over 2:1

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1592963457317359617

[Хahar 🤔]

Walker seems to be even worse in this final stretch than he was in the last few months... and that's saying something

Walker's campaign did a pretty good job late in the campaign of keeping the focus away from his actual statements. How many times did you see videos of him speaking in October? It really wasn't many. Now that there are no other races to discuss, they can't do that anymore.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Walker's challenge now will be figuring out how he can run on himself since Senate control is already decided.

I would say Warnock is favored but def don't count Walker out, Georgia is a perennial swing state and runoff dynamics can be weird.

[Agafin]

Now that senate control isn't in play anymore, there's probably more than a few republicans who want Walker to lose so as to be represented by a better republican in the future. As Georgia becomes bluer, repubs will need strong candidates to be competitive statewide in the future. Kemp for example looks like an obvious challenger to Ossoff in 2026 (since he'd be term limited) and there are many republicans in the state who are way better than Walker but would lose to him in a primary if he had incumbency advantage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1593226531501113345

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen one poll on GA runoff but they keep POLL DeSantis v Trump, why because the pollsters got the polls wrong again

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1593226531501113345

I mean, GA has certainly moved to the left, but 2018 was still a blue wave year, and this was a Biden midterm, so the drops aren't that surprising (and honestly aren't really that big). Conversely though, the fact that Warnock still won by 1% despite all of that is even more impressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see a poll after Thanksgiving that's it for the Runoff it's not like it's in January anymore, but they keep POLL DeSantis v Trump Rs aren't gonna win anyways they don't have any blue state R Govs except VA and NV and Tim Kaine is on the ballot in 24

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1593251764463357955?s=20&t=-CHpY1...

[Spectator]

Waiting on a poll to drop here. I have to wonder if pollsters are scared of touching this race with a ten foot poll after Tuesday.

[Person Man]

Waiting on a poll to drop here. I have to wonder if pollsters are scared of touching this race with a ten foot poll after Tuesday.

The only chance that Walker wins is that Democrats stay home. It's as easy as that.

[Skill and Chance]

Waiting on a poll to drop here. I have to wonder if pollsters are scared of touching this race with a ten foot poll after Tuesday.

I mean they were generally accurate to within 2% in Georgia.  Almost every poll had a runoff, even though some had Walker leading by an inch instead of Warnock. 

In fact, Georgia polling has been pretty dead on in the current era, with something like 1% Republican lean on average over all statewide races in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

[wbrocks67]

Waiting on a poll to drop here. I have to wonder if pollsters are scared of touching this race with a ten foot poll after Tuesday.

Marist and Siena were great in GA, so I hope either one of them return. AJC's final poll was about a tie, so they were pretty good too. One of the few bright spots for Emerson too.

I don't wanna see any IA/Trafalgar/Wick/coefficient nonsense here though.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1593343994041405442

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1593343994041405442

Kiss of death

[Sir Mohamed]

Do we get a few polls for the runoff soon?

[VBM]

Anyone else think Walker may actually get BTFO’d since Dems already won enough seats to control the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House will satiate the voters who want Dems to have a check on their power? It’s hard to see how Walker doesn’t get drastically reduced turnout

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else think Walker may actually get BTFO’d since Dems already won enough seats to control the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House will satiate the voters who want Dems to have a check on their power? It’s hard to see how Walker doesn’t get drastically reduced turnout

Yeah, it's like on one hand the GA turnout for Republicans was strong this year, but on the other hand, even with that strong turnout, Walker still lost by 1% and most of those voters would still have to come back for Walker even when they didn't even like him the first time around.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone else think Walker may actually get BTFO’d since Dems already won enough seats to control the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House will satiate the voters who want Dems to have a check on their power? It’s hard to see how Walker doesn’t get drastically reduced turnout

Yeah, it's like on one hand the GA turnout for Republicans was strong this year, but on the other hand, even with that strong turnout, Walker still lost by 1% and most of those voters would still have to come back for Walker even when they didn't even like him the first time around.

The issue is that this is a (mostly) racially polarized deep south state. Voters will show up, these things can only give marginal gains or losses. And based on Walker vs Kemp margins, if there is a marginal decrease in GOP turnout, it would be in the Atlanta metro.

Which is why I think theres a good chance that Warnock wins Fayette. Even if the above is only one of the forces at play come December, this Forsyth and Cobb seem like ground zero for it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1593645536745332737

[Spectator]

Walker couldn’t lead Warnock in a Trump+5 electorate. I think that’s the most damning evidence of his fortunes.

[prag_prog]

Anyone else think Walker may actually get BTFO’d since Dems already won enough seats to control the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House will satiate the voters who want Dems to have a check on their power? It’s hard to see how Walker doesn’t get drastically reduced turnout

we need couple of polls to get a decent idea. On paper, Warnock does seem to have slight advantage but I don't think we should definitely assume that R turnout will drop unless we have some evidence (polling or EV data). EV period is also less this time - just 5 days

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1593718060233494530

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just watched Walker's vampire speech.

Over 60% of Georgia Republicans voted to nominate this guy. Seriously.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NAACP_LDF/status/1593738420966268933?s=20&t=pdn5qAR3C-jg...