GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Burke Bro]

This guy has more baggage than ATL and we knew that from the start. Why did Mitch McConnell endorse him a full year ago when there was plenty of time to push a different candidate for the Republican nomination? Especially in a state like Georgia whose Republican Party has had a recent anti-Trump streak. Absolute incompetence.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

[Burke Bro]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

More evidence that 538's model is trash. Democrats are probably favorites to keep the senate if they win Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have nominated some textbook-level terrible celebrity  candidates in those states that make them more insulated from a republican wave election. It's not inconceivable that Democrats win both but then lose Nevada and Arizona, leaving them one seat short of a majority.

[Horus]

Well, it is October 3rd

https://twitter.com/mattcorridoni/status/1577112951315582976?s=20&t=xigWAuCP...

Happy birthday to me 😁😁

[Devout Centrist]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

More evidence that 538's model is trash. Democrats are probably favorites to keep the senate if they win Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have nominated some textbook-level terrible celebrity  candidates in those states that make them more insulated from a republican wave election. It's not inconceivable that Democrats win both but then lose Nevada and Arizona, leaving them one seat short of a majority.

hahahahahaha

[Burke Bro]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

More evidence that 538's model is trash. Democrats are probably favorites to keep the senate if they win Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have nominated some textbook-level terrible celebrity  candidates in those states that make them more insulated from a republican wave election. It's not inconceivable that Democrats win both but then lose Nevada and Arizona, leaving them one seat short of a majority.

hahahahahaha

Masters isn't a celebrity candidate so far as terrible political sensibilities and a ton of baggage go. You could make the argument that's he's the most likely to lose (if you assume Kelly is a strong incumbent, and that's a big if) but he's undeniably the best candidate of the 3.

[Coldstream]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

More evidence that 538's model is trash. Democrats are probably favorites to keep the senate if they win Georgia and Pennsylvania, but Republicans have nominated some textbook-level terrible celebrity  candidates in those states that make them more insulated from a republican wave election. It's not inconceivable that Democrats win both but then lose Nevada and Arizona, leaving them one seat short of a majority.

hahahahahaha

Masters isn't a celebrity candidate so far as terrible political sensibilities and a ton of baggage go. You could make the argument that's he's the most likely to lose (if you assume Kelly is a strong incumbent, and that's a big if) but he's undeniably the best candidate of the 3.

I agree and that’s how low the GOP has sunk that Blake Masters is a relatively good candidate.

[Pollster]

Amazing what Herschel Walker has done to his life & family all because Trump told him to run for the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker son says he's done with him, Walker is running to ban abortion statewide and he paid a female to have an abortion that's why Oz is behind he is too pro life

[VBM]

This isn’t gonna stop any Republican from voting for him unfortunately.

[Unelectable Bystander]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

These probabilities are incorrect and this forum has a habit of using the model way out of context. Those results favor the democrats not just because of the results but because those results generally would indicate that it’s a good night for Dems. This assumption doesn’t hold when these two races will go blue strictly due to Oz and Walker being unelectable.

The Republican path is now AZ + NV + holding everything excel PA. Kelly is heavily favored but it’s still Arizona so I would estimate Master’s chances at 10-20%. But if that does happen, we can be 90-95% sure that Laxalt won and basically 100% sure that NC/OH/WI/FL held. In other words, Arizona might be both necessary but also sufficient to flip the senate. So Dems are mightily favored to win the senate at this point but I’d say only 85-90%.

For the same reasons above, the house race is completely unrelated to these results aside from probably a slight bump to Dems in the two PA tossup races due to GOP reputation damage. It certainly does not shift the house race odds by 25%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Amazing what Herschel Walker has done to his life & family all because Trump told him to run for the Senate.

It's why I genuinely don't understand most peoples' motivation to run for office.  I'm not talking about your Lucy McBath types (the rare few who actually run on a sole desire to make actual change based on personal tragedy or hardship).  

I'm talking about those who think it will bring them personal glory or a prestigious lifestyle.

Especially in today's day and age, you don't get to have secrets or a personal life anymore.  This is hard enough to do as a private doctor or teacher, let alone having your dirty laundry aired as part of attack ads or talking points by your opponents.  

I think it was Michelle Obama who said that the biggest difficulty of being First Lady was her loss of anonymity.  Not that Herschel Walker was a nobody before this run, but still.  

[Person Man]

Amazing what Herschel Walker has done to his life & family all because Trump told him to run for the Senate.

It's why I genuinely don't understand most peoples' motivation to run for office.  I'm not talking about your Lucy McBath types (the rare few who actually run on a sole desire to make actual change based on personal tragedy or hardship).  

I'm talking about those who think it will bring them personal glory or a prestigious lifestyle.

Especially in today's day and age, you don't get to have secrets or a personal life anymore.  This is hard enough to do as a private doctor or teacher, let alone having your dirty laundry aired as part of attack ads or talking points by your opponents.  

I think it was Michelle Obama who said that the biggest difficulty of being First Lady was her loss of anonymity.  Not that Herschel Walker was a nobody before this run, but still.  

What we need more of are people who are actually interested in governing because that is their life’s interest. The only problem with people like that is not how they govern, but whether what they can do is what people want. At the core, that was why Dukakis lost. It wasn’t Willie Horton, or the tank, it was that he tried to prove that he was competent but never explained what exactly he was competent at.

Tom Daschle campaigned on being the being the community’s “Congress guy”. He was successful at it until he became too involved in the opportunities it presented.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

These probabilities are incorrect and this forum has a habit of using the model way out of context. Those results favor the democrats not just because of the results but because those results generally would indicate that it’s a good night for Dems. This assumption doesn’t hold when these two races will go blue strictly due to Oz and Walker being unelectable.

The Republican path is now AZ + NV + holding everything excel PA. Kelly is heavily favored but it’s still Arizona so I would estimate Master’s chances at 10-20%. But if that does happen, we can be 90-95% sure that Laxalt won and basically 100% sure that NC/OH/WI/FL held. In other words, Arizona might be both necessary but also sufficient to flip the senate. So Dems are mightily favored to win the senate at this point but I’d say only 85-90%.

For the same reasons above, the house race is completely unrelated to these results aside from probably a slight bump to Dems in the two PA tossup races due to GOP reputation damage. It certainly does not shift the house race odds by 25%.

Rs aren't holding onto AZ that Masters hasn't lead in a single poll and he's trying to cut SSA in an AARP retirement state like AZ is bad

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the AJC's top political reporter:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1577286790058328069

[wbrocks67]

I think we can all agree that Erickson is a hack and a hot ass mess. Though telling when even he decides to jump ship on the GOP candidate.

[prag_prog]

New tweets today

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577284445367042049

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577286493692755970

[wbrocks67]

I say this with complete honesty, even without factoring in the whole politics - Christian has been a mess for some time but good for him for speaking out. The fact that he's even saying how people have been asking him about how it would affect the race shows that he's seriously affected by this as a person - and who wouldn't be?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New tweets today

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577284445367042049

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1577286493692755970

Wow.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I admire him coming forward. I do worry he'll get a lot of death threats now from Trump supporters who think he's being paid by the Democrats to hurt Trump's candidate.

[brucejoel99]

Imagine so clearly declaring your desire to burn in hell:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1577255865652228097

[Holmes]

It's probably over for Walker.

[Person Man]

It's probably over for Walker.

Can we now say this race is Lean D? lol

Maybe it really will come down to Nevada but if Oz is wounded too, that's pretty much it for Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1577292988958515200

[LostInOhio]

This is the textbook definition of an October surprise. I don’t see how their campaign recovers. Debating Warnock will just drive the nail in further. No intelligent person could actually think this man is better as a senator than Warnock even if they disagree with Warnock’s politics