GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Horus]

Are Republicans likely to come vote for Walker?

No.

You're on the ground, Horus. Do you think Warnock wins?

Yes, and I'm not even sure there'll be any runoffs. Right now a lot of folks in the northern burbs are thinking about splitting their tickets, as are a non negligible number of Black men.

I think Warnock is running a reasonably good campaign, though at this point I wanna see him get a little more assertive and perhaps even go for the jugular. Everyone knows Walker has mental issues and I get that Warnock, being a man of the cloth, wants to generally take the high road. But a few soundbytes would be helpful.

Walker's last chance to change the dynamics will be the debate. Maybe his strategy is to go in with low expectations and do an average job. But that's not the strategy of someone currently leading. The presence of the Libertarian will also add an interesting dynamic. Will he attract more split ticketers, more hesitant Walker voters, or will be be a non entity?

[Podgy the Bear]

I do think the Warnock campaign and affiliates are going hard on Walker's personal issues.  Every other commercial has his ex-wife on talking about Walker's repeated threats to kill her.  And every revelation (like the charitable non-giving) is getting on the air immediately.

There will be a fair amount of splitting, though not known how much.  I think that Kemp will get through on Election Day without a runoff.  It remains to be seen how many Kemp voters in suburban Atlanta will also vote for Walker.  It's clear that my Republican colleagues in the area are unenthusiastic about him.  I expect most of them will vote for Walker to increase the takeover chances in the Senate, but some of them will use the Libertarian outlet (which will always be 2-3%) and a number of them will vote for Warnock.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree with my co-Georgians above and add that I think the worst case for Warnock is a runoff, which he would likely win.  I just don't see Walker getting to 50% in November.

[Spectator]

I agree with my co-Georgians above and add that I think the worst case for Warnock is a runoff, which he would likely win.  I just don't see Walker getting to 50% in November.

Echoed on this. I'm overseas now and not on the ground, but my sense is that Walker's too much damaged goods to win. Even my fellow conservative colleagues generally mock his ineptness. I think Warnock wins, but Republicans sweep the other statewide races.

2026 will be interesting if there's no Democrat statewide officeholders aside from Warnock and Ossoff in office. I'm praying to god we don't get a third Abrams run.

[Calthrina950]

I genuinely feel sorry for Herschel Walker. I can't help but laugh when I watch video clips of him speaking, as he clearly unprepared for the office that he is running for. He's being taken advantage of by other people and doesn't even know it, or if he does know it, allows for it to continue.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1575112758177439744

[GeorgiaModerate]

From "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog: Herschel Walker moves further right in search of conservative votes

[wbrocks67]

From "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog: Herschel Walker moves further right in search of conservative votes

Seems like he's in the same situation as Oz where GOP voters are still skeptical. Still trying to win them over as we head into October is not a great sign.

[kwabbit]

From "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog: Herschel Walker moves further right in search of conservative votes

Seems like he's in the same situation as Oz where GOP voters are still skeptical. Still trying to win them over as we head into October is not a great sign.

Walker doesn’t have an issue with the base. He won the primary easily and is authentically conservative. He might be moving right because he doesn’t know how to articulate a moderate nuanced message, given his general communication problems, but he’s in a much different place than Oz.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416

This ad is very good.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416

This ad is very good.

Warnock is very charismatic and a good campaigner, which are factors that work in his favor, especially in contrast to someone like Walker.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416
This ad is very good.

Jimmy Raphael Peanuts

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1576375089779855360

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416
This ad is very good.

This is probably the best ad I’ve seen this whole cycle.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416

This ad is very good.

Inb4 MT Treasurer getting giddy about "BIPARTISAN"

[President Johnson]

Not meaning to be generally disrespectful here, but why does Walker constantly strike me as someone with brain damage? He's really unfit for being a senator.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not meaning to be generally disrespectful here, but why does Walker constantly strike me as someone with brain damage? He's really unfit for being a senator.

Because he probably does, sadly.  As a UGA fan, I loved Herschel as a football player, but it seems obvious that he took too many hits while playing (he had a 15-year NFL career after college) and likely suffers from CTE.  If you compare his manner of speaking now to recordings from several years ago, he's clearly gotten less articulate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1576550076385746948

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1576550076385746948

To be honest, no black Republican candidate is ever going to win the black vote, so long as the partisan coalitions remain the same as they do now. The majority of black voters (~75% according to one poll I saw) have a negative opinion of the Republican Party and are Yellow Dog Democrats, who will vote Democratic for as long as they live.

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

This ad is very good.

Inb4 MT Treasurer getting giddy about "BIPARTISAN"

Well, you know my mantra that high-profile political campaigns in competitive races are all about rhetoric and theatrics, which is notable because (a1) both disciplines aim at the manipulation of an audience (if you think that’s a coincidence, you’re mistaken), and (a2) the people who tend to be extremely skilled in both are overrepresented in the highest positions in power (if you think that’s a coincidence, you’re mistaken).

I’ve always appreciated your interest in/willingness to look at campaigns and events from a less ideological and more psychological lens and you seem to be familiar with some techniques of mass manipulation (repetition being one of them, as you’ve alluded to in previous posts), so what technique would you say this ad uses (if it does)? What makes this an effective ad?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's all about perception and making a convincing argument. It doesn't matter how "moderate"/"bipartisan" someone is. If you can convince the voters you are one through effective messaging, that's all it takes! Elissa Slotkin, Don Bacon, Maggie Hassan and Susan Collins are all good examples of this.

[MT Treasurer]

It's all about perception and making a convincing argument. It doesn't matter how "moderate"/"bipartisan" someone is. If you can convince the voters you are one through effective messaging, that's all it takes! Elissa Slotkin, Don Bacon, Maggie Hassan and Susan Collins are all good examples of this.

I don’t disagree with the crux of this, but what about that ad, though? (question for everybody, you can take your seat )

Is it Warnock's 'bipartisan bill' eliminating regulations for peanut farmers that’s going to stand out here? Is that the most memorable part of the ad?

[Pollster]

Warnock makes this look incredibly easy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Warnock makes this look incredibly easy.

It's funny how Georgia quickly swapped with Pennsylvania this week when it comes to the Senate race I am more concerned about.

[wbrocks67]

Warnock makes this look incredibly easy.

It's funny how Georgia quickly swapped with Pennsylvania this week when it comes to the Senate race I am more concerned about.

Which is ironic given just a few weeks ago it looked like Walker suddenly had momentum.