GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1529856140154118150

Well this sucks, he has apparently realized that he is much quicker on his feet

[Del Tachi]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

[MargieCat]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

[Del Tachi]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

No swing is "regardless of the environment."  GA's swing towards the Democrats in 2018 was less than the nation as a whole, for example. 

States with strong trends aren't immune from the national environment.  Most expect Kemp to best his 2018 performance versus Abrams.  How does this fit into your theory of Georgia as a perpetually D-swinging state?      

[Politician]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

Cope

[GALeftist]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

[Roll Roons]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Got me wondering - who would be an Abrams/Walker voter?

[scutosaurus]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Same here. All anecdotally, but still. And on top of that, the amount of otherwise straight ticket Democrats who are Raffensperger-curious is too damn high.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Same here. All anecdotally, but still. And on top of that, the amount of otherwise straight ticket Democrats who are Raffensperger-curious is too damn high.

Agree with both of you.  I think Kemp, Raffensperger, and Warnock are favorites in November.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

[Horus]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Got me wondering - who would be an Abrams/Walker voter?

Very, very low info Black or Latino Trump voter? I don't think there will be many.

[Zenobiyl]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Got me wondering - who would be an Abrams/Walker voter?

Die-hard MAGAT who hates Kemp and blames him for not overturning the Georgia 2020 elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's been a 303 map and 65/60 M vote Election since 2012 but instead of OH and IA as Bellwether states it's been replaced by GA and AZ due to the Death of McCain but McCain was an Environmentalist unlike the status quo GOP and Ducey and McCain family are well liked outside of that Lake and Walker will both lose..
.
We don't know about Kemp but it's a Runoff state GA

But according to 538 GA and AZ are not more liberal than WI, PA and MI users knows that but they act like WI is some sort of IA and OH, it's not

[Rookie Yinzer]

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

That was ignorant wishful thinking from pundits/elitists who thought people gave a d*mn about Carter and Nunn being legacy candidates.

No swing is "regardless of the environment."  GA's swing towards the Democrats in 2018 was less than the nation as a whole, for example. 

States with strong trends aren't immune from the national environment.  Most expect Kemp to best his 2018 performance versus Abrams.  How does this fit into your theory of Georgia as a perpetually D-swinging state?      

Huh? GA has moved left in every election since 2012. Period. What people "expect" is irrelevant to what the actual results will end up being. Most people said that Stacey Abrams would underperform Jason Carter and that her run for Governor would show us what the absolute FLOOR was for Democrats in GA.

[Politician]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

I mean Republicans basically overperformed polls everywhere in 2014, even in blue states (IL/MD).

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1531608994657316864?s=21&t=Xwn8igI...


This is the first thing Herschel has said that I liked in months

[Adam Griffin]

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

Uhhh, unless you're talking about mid-summer 2014 where polls showed Democrats in a dead-heat and/or ahead, this really wasn't the case. Prior to 2016, people who knew GA politics knew that "undecideds" were disproportionately educated suburbrons who broke 3:1 for Republicans in the final 2-3 weeks of the campaign consistently in every cycle. Unless a Democrat was polling at 50%, there was no chance of victory.

I'd argue it was a strong performance especially for Carter, who held Obama-12 statewide figures in a hostile midterm, largely by delivering 5-15 point improvements throughout most of rural GA compared to Obama (especially in the north - which would prove to be where Biden's improvements led to his narrow victory - including my home county, where he did 12 points better than Obama-12; Nunn's improvements relative to Carter's versus Obama's were largely in metro ATL).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could Christian Walker (Hershel Walkers son) be a liability.

I don’t say this lightly but he seems like a really terrible person. He’s gay yet actively is against the lgbtq community and comes across as a spoiled brat and kinda crazy on his social media. He also spends tons of money on clothes and stuff and then complains about high gas prices. One post even tried to argue the lgbtq community isn’t impressed because he had a nice car and fancy clothes. Look it up and you’ll see what I mean

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Could Christian Walker (Hershel Walkers son) be a liability.

I don’t say this lightly but he seems like a really terrible person. He’s gay yet actively is against the lgbtq community and comes across as a spoiled brat and kinda crazy on his social media. He also spends tons of money on clothes and stuff and then complains about high gas prices. One post even tried to argue the lgbtq community isn’t impressed because he had a nice car and fancy clothes. Look it up and you’ll see what I mean

Listen if Christian walker becomes a senator son I’m leaving this planet

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1536513537144770562

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1536513537144770562

I feel like Walker's been focusing a lot on the culture war stuff rather than actual policy matters, which isn't surprising since he himself is a celebrity, not a politician or someone who's been heavily involved in public service.

Even stereotypical Republican talking points on policies dealing with such as guns and healthcare he's been pretty quiet on.

A Walker vs Warnock debate would really be gold.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1536513537144770562

Lol that interview is a funny look given Carson’s intelligence. But Walker is truly charismatic and seems like a nice guy, which is big

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Could Christian Walker (Hershel Walkers son) be a liability.

I don’t say this lightly but he seems like a really terrible person. He’s gay yet actively is against the lgbtq community and comes across as a spoiled brat and kinda crazy on his social media. He also spends tons of money on clothes and stuff and then complains about high gas prices. One post even tried to argue the lgbtq community isn’t impressed because he had a nice car and fancy clothes. Look it up and you’ll see what I mean

Could his other son be a liability?

https://www.twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1536870640493674496

[riceowl]

Hahahahahahahahaha

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1536513537144770562

Lol that interview is a funny look given Carson’s intelligence. But Walker is truly charismatic and seems like a nice guy, which is big

if you think walker is charismatic you probably also have CTE