GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Politician]

Yeah, I wouldn't be that surprised if Walker manages to blow this on a night where Laxalt/R nominee in AZ win handily and Oz squeaks by in PA. The good news is that Republicans don't need to win this seat to flip the Senate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1529818029500076033

This guy wants to be a US Senator? Good lord.

I can see why McConnell desperately didn't want him to run lol.

He may very well win this November, but I have a hard time seeing him win reelection in six years, especially since Georgia is trending Democrat faster than the speed of light. He'd certainly be DOA in a Dem midterm.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Yeah, I wouldn't be that surprised if Walker manages to blow this on a night where Laxalt/R nominee in AZ win handily and Oz squeaks by in PA. The good news is that Republicans don't need to win this seat to flip the Senate.

Honestly, Fetterman, Kelly, Warnock, and Laxalt all winning is plausible and it’s a 50-50 Senate again.

[longtimelurker]

According to football player Herschel Walker, there should be a total ban on abortion, with no exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the mother; "I've seen some people, they've had some tough times, but I always said, 'No matter what, tough times make tough people.'"

Yes, just tough out that that ectopic pregnancy, women of Georgia. It will build character!

I oppose Roe v. Wade, but even the so-called draconian Oklahoma anti-abortion bill that just became law has a clear exception for ectopic pregnancies.  My grandmother had an ectopic pregnancy that had to be aborted in the 1930's.  It's standard medicine.

That, and Herschel's opposition to evolution indicate that he has zero understanding of science.  Just like one Donald J. Trump.

[GALeftist]

I have maintained for a while that Walker is an awful candidate and the GOP would do better with literally anyone else. I guess now we'll see if I'm right!

[xavier110]

This dude is pure word salad. Who could vote for him…

Getting 2010/2012 deja vu…

[GALeftist]

inb4 "Heh, yet another thread full of elitist liberals in coastal major metro areas stuck so far in their own bubble they are unlikely to ever again see the light of day. Real Americans don't care one iota whether their candidate's brains have obviously been pulverized into a fine mist by years of college football. In fact, to these people, it is likely a greatly attractive feature of a politician to be utterly unable to produce a thought as or more complex than a grocery list."

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1529818029500076033

This guy wants to be a US Senator? Good lord.

I can see why McConnell desperately didn't want him to run lol.

He may very well win this November, but I have a hard time seeing him win reelection in six years, especially since Georgia is trending Democrat faster than the speed of light. He'd certainly be DOA in a Dem midterm.

Just look at where Georgia is going. He'd be done with a Democratic President in office 6 years from now.

The problem now - one I still believe in - is the fact that there'll be no racial contrast in November. If he does as well - let alone slightly better - than Trump with black men specifically, it's probably his to lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

[Minnesota Mike]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

Ultimately the overall dynamics of the year are the most important, and the GOP very well may win this race for that reason alone, however, candidate quality can still impact the margin a few % and ina  close race that can really matter. Also Walker is a great lightning rod for Dems and I struggle to see what's particularly notable about his appeal to GOP voters. It's not like because he's black he's suddenly gonna get massive swings in downtown Atlanta which is how many on the GOP seem to think whenever they run a canidate of colour.

[Roll Roons]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

It's true that no incumbent Democratic Senators are DOA like Jones or Gardner were. But as someone who thinks candidate quality absolutely matters, I recognize that it's always possible for mediocre/poor challengers to win on the strength of a wave. None of them are Todd Akin-level disasters (yet). 

[LostInOhio]

I actually think Warnock is about as strong of a Democratic candidate you can get. I think he’ll hold on narrowly and then enjoy an even bigger victory in 2028. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a presidential candidate one day either

[Xing]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Using Trump-Biden as the baseline
Walker just has to do 1 of these 3 things to win
1) Juice out the rurals a little more compared to Trump
2) Improve slightly on Trump in the suburbs (Walker doesn't even have to keep Gwinnett within 15% or Cobb within 10%)
3) Gain slightly with black voters compared to Trump or if black turnout decreases overall, he wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker isn't gonna win juicing out rural voters he wants to ban Abortion, and that's when he went from 10 pts ahead to 5 pts down, it's a Runoff state anyways Kemp and Walker are unlikely to avoid a Jan 2023 runoff and what did we learn from last time provisional ballots changes election results so if it's close there is gonna be a Runoff

Last poll had Warnock 50/45, Kemp 50/45

ORDER OF S D MAJORITY
NH 47
NV 48
AZ 49
PA 50
WI 51
GA 52 Runoff Jan
NC 53
LA 54 Runoff Dec

[Unelectable Bystander]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

Ultimately the overall dynamics of the year are the most important, and the GOP very well may win this race for that reason alone, however, candidate quality can still impact the margin a few % and ina  close race that can really matter. Also Walker is a great lightning rod for Dems and I struggle to see what's particularly notable about his appeal to GOP voters. It's not like because he's black he's suddenly gonna get massive swings in downtown Atlanta which is how many on the GOP seem to think whenever they run a canidate of colour.

I mostly agree but why would you say he’s a lightning rod for Dems? I think his appeal is the fact that he’s a generic R without being a lightning rod. Specifically, he isn’t a boogeyman for many black voters like Trump was. I think that this, combined with apathy towards Biden could create a dip in Atlanta turnout, which is not something we’ve seen Dems overcome on a statewide level to date

[MT Treasurer]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Of course you couldn’t resist inserting your silly fixation on NV/Laxalt into the discussion of this race. This was already touched upon in other threads (not that you’re even receptive to that message because you’ll always cling to your inelastic & deep blue Nevada/weak Laxalt narrative regardless of actual election results), but the difference is that Laxalt's campaign is hyper-focused on making the case for firing the incumbent (and the national party which said incumbent can be tied to fairly easily) while Walker's campaign amounts to little other than the same 'inspirational', slick, and repetitive ads recycled over and over again without any effort to define Warnock at all (and to define him before Warnock has defined himself, which he already has). This is an absolutely self-defeating strategy given that Walker can’t afford even the slightest underperformance among white voters and that negative campaigning (if executed competently) is almost always more effective than any barrage of 'positive' ads.

Basically, the Laxalt campaign actually understands how federal races are won in a midterm under an unpopular President from the other party, whereas the Walker campaign really doesn’t.

[Politician]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Has Walker ever won a statewide race? Has Laxalt made the dame bone-headed remarks as Walker?

[Xing]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Of course you couldn’t resist inserting your silly fixation on NV/Laxalt into the discussion of this race. This was already touched upon in other threads (not that you’re even receptive to that message because you’ll always cling to your inelastic & deep blue Nevada/weak Laxalt narrative regardless of actual election results), but the difference is that Laxalt's campaign is hyper-focused on making the case for firing the incumbent (and the national party which said incumbent can be tied to fairly easily) while Walker's campaign amounts to little other than the same 'inspirational', slick, and repetitive ads recycled over and over again without any effort to define Warnock at all (and to define him before Warnock has defined himself, which he already has). This is an absolutely self-defeating strategy given that Walker can’t afford even the slightest underperformance among white voters and that negative campaigning (if executed competently) is almost always more effective than any barrage of 'positive' ads.

Basically, the Laxalt campaign actually understands how federal races are won in a midterm under an unpopular President from the other party, whereas the Walker campaign really doesn’t.

Nice strawman. Either way, I don't think it's the case that Walker isn't going to make this race about Warnock, and positive ads can certainly be effective. And all things being even, an anti-incumbent campaign is hardly a "strong" one, merely a generic one, and that kind of one that, yes, works in a good year for one's party, but doesn't exactly lead to an overperformance. I'm not even arguing that Walker is heavily favored, simply that the environment is likely good enough for him to win, and the same goes for Laxalt, as does the idea that he can't afford to underperform.

I don't think NV is a "deep blue state", I think it's a state that would lean Democratic in a neutral year (which 2022 clearly isn't.) You're the one who seems obsessed with the idea that NV will be "ground zero" for a Democratic collapse, which doesn't really seem to be founded on anything other than a <0.1% Republican swing from 2016-2020, or assuming that Latinos will outright vote Republican. Not sure how else you explain thinking Sisolak could lose by double digits.

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Has Walker ever won a statewide race? Has Laxalt made the dame bone-headed remarks as Walker?

Laxalt won by a razor-thin margin while Sandoval won by over 40% and Democrats pretty much ignored the state. Hardly an impressive victory. And while people like to point to his 2018 performance, an argument can be made that Sandoval's popularity and Sisolak being a mediocre candidate played a role. And Laxalt has made plenty of "controversial" comments. Perhaps not worded in the same strange way as Walker's, but still.

[Vosem]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Laxalt has an electoral history and did pretty decently in 2018, while Walker doesn't have an electoral history. That said, I'm not sure the gaffes Walker is displaying in this thread are the type that loses votes: it's not that he's expressing opinions that voters strongly disagree with so much as he's just speaking ineloquently. They're the same kind of thing -- a significantly worse version of it, but still -- as the Biden gaffes from 2019. Walker's actual political instincts distinctly seem fine; in particular his refusal to go along with Trump's instructions for endorsing other candidates in Georgia shows that he isn't, like, some puppet.

Basically, the Laxalt campaign actually understands how federal races are won in a midterm under an unpopular President from the other party, whereas the Walker campaign really doesn’t.

Is there a reason to think the people on the Walker campaign are these ridiculous incompetents? I think given his moves so far whoever is advising the guy is doing a pretty good job. I understand the instinct that Walker might be likely to say something very weird that would hurt his campaign -- it's probably a correct instinct -- but on the present trajectory I don't really see him performing any worse than Generic R.

I strongly suspect his campaign will collapse under scrutiny and he'll either drop out or his support will crater.

I agreed with you a year ago but, like, this didn't pan out. If the general election campaign is the same quality as his primary election campaign, then given the lean of the year Herschel Walker will virtually certainly be a Senator.

(Also, note that Laxalt got a cleared primary field but is currently in the fight of his life against an out-of-nowhere challenger, while Walker faced a field with a statewide official and other people with national connections and still demolished them.)

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Has Walker ever won a statewide race? Has Laxalt made the dame bone-headed remarks as Walker?

Yep I think the assumption is as simple as this. But as mentioned further down, saying stupid things isn’t disqualifying if it doesn’t make you unlikeable (much like Biden)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Because after a national trade guy his response is to suggest we ‘look at men who is looking at women who is looking at social media’

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt isn't that strong he lost to Sisolak already in 2018 when he was leading by 3 pts and the last poll had it WARNOCK 50/45 and CCM 42/34 Rs aren't gonna sweep everything and D's aren't either

It's very likely GA Gov and Sen are both going to a Jan 2023 Runoff anyways

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, people really are trying to twist themselves into pretzels to try and defend Walker here. His gaffes are nowhere near similar to Bidens at any point, and the two are not the same in any way, shape, or form.

Biden may say ineloquent things sometimes, but Walker appears like he's not even "there" sometimes with no idea what is going on, even in the state he's "living in." People really trying to make it not appear so bad or say it won't hurt him are really grasping at straws.