GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[S019]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1430267336238452745?s=20

It's very notable that the NRSC is not taking sides in this primary, and we've heard stories about them being less than pleased with Walker's possible run.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Raphael "Doug Jones" Warnock

[Suburbia]

Raphael "Doug Jones" Warnock

You think Warnock can lose to someone like Walker; and if Warnock loses, does Abrams lose to Kemp or Jones again?

[Хahar 🤔]

I really don't think you can justify Hershel Walker moving the race in favor of the Dems. Dude is literally a god over there. Who the hell would perform better than him? David Perdue?

Anyone under 50 probably does not remember seeing him play at Georgia. He has not lived in the state for nearly 40 years. He has a ton of baggage including domestic abuse, mental health issues and the fact his wife may be facing voter fraud charges. On top of all that he has zero experience as a candidate. Republicans would be better off with a generic R candidate (yes that includes Perdue) than Walker IMHO.

This is all true, and beyond that, the record of sports figures running for office is very spotty. Both Bud Wilkinson and Tom Osborne had more recent success (each was less than a decade removed from a national championship), lacked the baggage that Herschel Walker has, and were running in states with far more favorable partisan demographics. Neither succeeded in their run for statewide office. It's absolutely possible for Walker to win, but if he does it'll be because of turnout and because voters in Georgia are so inelastic, not because he won voters who would have otherwise chosen Warnock.

[Gracile]

I really don't think you can justify Hershel Walker moving the race in favor of the Dems. Dude is literally a god over there. Who the hell would perform better than him? David Perdue?

Anyone under 50 probably does not remember seeing him play at Georgia. He has not lived in the state for nearly 40 years. He has a ton of baggage including domestic abuse, mental health issues and the fact his wife may be facing voter fraud charges. On top of all that he has zero experience as a candidate. Republicans would be better off with a generic R candidate (yes that includes Perdue) than Walker IMHO.

I'll also add that being a local sports star from years ago probably carries less cachet in a state like Georgia where a significant segment of (Democratic) voters are transplants from elsewhere.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I really don't think you can justify Hershel Walker moving the race in favor of the Dems. Dude is literally a god over there. Who the hell would perform better than him? David Perdue?

Lol, well your are clearly not from Georgia.

[Girlytree]

Herschel Walker scandal AAs love Warnock

Gary Black inevitable can defeat
https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1430258611314257921

[Astatine]

Herschel Walker scandal AAs love Warnock

Gary Black inevitable can defeat

olawakandi is it you

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia especially Metro Atlanta is heavily transient. Not only do young voters not care about him there are plenty of middle aged and older folks who won’t care either because they’re not even from here.

This race is still Tilt D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mentioned to a 20-something relative (a UGA grad student who used to work at Sanford Stadium during home football games) that Herschel Walker was running for Senate, and his response was "who's that?"

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not as intimidated by Walker as much as I used to be. He has some very clear, exploitable baggage that will only bubble further and further to the surface as this election gets underway. I would agree with a tilt D rating for now. I would say lean D, but I have to factor Georgia's election laws into the rating.

[Podgy the Bear]

Herschel who?  Let's get real.  He won the Heisman 41 years ago.  Georgia 2022 is millions of miles away from Georgia 1980.

He would have appeal to UGA fans and alumni over 45 (and there are many), but they are largely Republican and would have supported him anyway.

I would take an Abrams-Warnock ticket against anything the Republicans might field.

[Ogre Mage]

After the disaster that was Insider Trading Barbie, I am uncertain the GOP would take a chance on another political novice for this seat.  And Walker is a carpetbagger and arguably has even more baggage than she did.

That said, I think the media will push for a Warnock vs. Walker contest.  The clash between two high-profile black candidates would make for a good media storyline.

[Хahar 🤔]

After the disaster that was Insider Trading Barbie, I am surprised the GOP would take a chance on another political novice for this seat.

The Kelly Loeffler campaign certainly feels like it was disastrous because it was so grotesque to us, but the facts don't actually bear that out. Loeffler showed substantial skill in beating Doug Collins in a race whose fundamentals did not favor her, and then in the runoff she performed exactly as well as David Perdue, the supposed strong candidate. Obviously her campaign was a failure in the sense that she didn't win, but Perdue didn't win, either; her defeat wasn't because of ineptitude specifically on the part of her case but instead because of structural factors. If she hadn't performed an about-face and voted to accept Georgia's electoral votes the day after her defeat, she'd be well positioned to win future Republican nominations.

[Ogre Mage]

After the disaster that was Insider Trading Barbie, I am surprised the GOP would take a chance on another political novice for this seat.

The Kelly Loeffler campaign certainly feels like it was disastrous because it was so grotesque to us, but the facts don't actually bear that out. Loeffler showed substantial skill in beating Doug Collins in a race whose fundamentals did not favor her, and then in the runoff she performed exactly as well as David Perdue, the supposed strong candidate. Obviously her campaign was a failure in the sense that she didn't win, but Perdue didn't win, either; her defeat wasn't because of ineptitude specifically on the part of her case but instead because of structural factors. If she hadn't performed an about-face and voted to accept Georgia's electoral votes the day after her defeat, she'd be well positioned to win future Republican nominations.

She did worse than Purdue.  He lost by 1% and she lost by 2%.  That's why Warnock's win was called first.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-special-elections/georgia-senate-runoff-results

You tacitly admit she is now poorly positioned to win in the future.   That is a sign her campaign was a disaster.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Warnock is favored to win the win the general election, largely because 2022 will be an anti-Biden year, but only if the race goes to a runoff.

Also, Walker is very much an underdog in a primary, even with Trump's endorsement. Large percentages, if not a massive majority of white Georgia Republicans won't vote for a black man under any circumstances, and Walker isn't going to win them over.

[Suburbia]

Tilt D

Warnock 51%, Walker 48%

[JMT]

Official announcement:

https://twitter.com/herschelwalker/status/1430567635054387201?s=21

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Official announcement:

https://twitter.com/herschelwalker/status/1430567635054387201?s=21

So the race to the bottom continues…

[Girlytree]

Buddy Carter endorses Walker.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bluestein/status/1430517737298739204

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Carter must be pissed; he really wanted to run for this seat.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I’ve always thought Walker was going to fall on his face like virtual all celebrity candidacies and I see no reason to change that opinion.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Buddy Carter endorses Walker.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bluestein/status/1430517737298739204

I swear that algorithms write statements for Republicans these days. Punch in those numbers!

[Calthrina950]

Buddy Carter endorses Walker.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bluestein/status/1430517737298739204

I swear that algorithms write statements for Republicans these days. Punch in those numbers!

I commented about this myself about a month or two ago, regarding Ann Wagner's statement announcing her decision to run for reelection. There seems to be a laundry list of "dirty words" that they keep on hand and throw in when necessary.

[Girlytree]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1430236123972866052
https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1430238142330654723