GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[TML]

The race could tilt or possibly even lean to Perdue if one or both of the below events occur:
    a.) Warnock becomes unpopular / is too liberal for Georgia voters / makes a gaffe, possibly relating to Israel / Palestine, that alienates some supporters.
   b.) The 2022 midterms are good for the GOP.

Assuming neither of the above occur, then the race is tossup or tilt Democratic. While Warnock may be the incumbent, remember, he won in 2020 because of a surge in turnout in Atlanta and the gravity of the race. If 2022 is a decent year for Democrats and the race progresses to a runoff, it's possible turnout is down from 2021 since the race matters less and Perdue wins. If, conversely, 2022/2023 is a repeat of 2020/2021, with it being a 50-50 tie and the Senate balance hinging on the Georgia race, then perhaps Warnock, since Perdue is a somewhat weakish candidate, given that he underperformed Trump in 2020 by 1% in a year where Trump did historically bad for a Republican presidential candidate in Georgia.

Didn't Perdue already take himself out of the running for this seat?

[QAnonKelly]

The race could tilt or possibly even lean to Perdue if one or both of the below events occur:
    a.) Warnock becomes unpopular / is too liberal for Georgia voters / makes a gaffe, possibly relating to Israel / Palestine, that alienates some supporters.
   b.) The 2022 midterms are good for the GOP.

Assuming neither of the above occur, then the race is tossup or tilt Democratic. While Warnock may be the incumbent, remember, he won in 2020 because of a surge in turnout in Atlanta and the gravity of the race. If 2022 is a decent year for Democrats and the race progresses to a runoff, it's possible turnout is down from 2021 since the race matters less and Perdue wins. If, conversely, 2022/2023 is a repeat of 2020/2021, with it being a 50-50 tie and the Senate balance hinging on the Georgia race, then perhaps Warnock, since Perdue is a somewhat weakish candidate, given that he underperformed Trump in 2020 by 1% in a year where Trump did historically bad for a Republican presidential candidate in Georgia.

Didn't Perdue already take himself out of the running for this seat?

He did months ago.

[UWS]

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.

That means the GOP may need at least one of their candidates to appeal among more conservative/moderate Democrats in order to keep Warnock from reaching 50 % in November, thus ensuring a runoff.

[wbrocks67]

Very smart to remind people that you do NOT currently live in Georgia and have lived in Texas *for decades* yet think you're entitled to represent Georgia in the Senate...

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1405530018902511616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Woody]

Very smart to remind people that you do NOT currently live in Georgia and have lived in Texas *for decades* yet think you're entitled to represent Georgia in the Senate...

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1405530018902511616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Walker was born and raised in Wrightsville, Georgia. He has played for the University of Georgia where he broke records. He has represented Georgia on the national spotlight as an athlete. Meanwhile Warnock was to busy driving over his wife's foot and preaching hate sermons.

[SnowLabrador]

He's running.

[Ferguson97]

In a fair election I think Warnock wins this easily, but I'm concerned that GA's voter suppression could disrupt that.

[GALeftist]

Very smart to remind people that you do NOT currently live in Georgia and have lived in Texas *for decades* yet think you're entitled to represent Georgia in the Senate...

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1405530018902511616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Walker was born and raised in Wrightsville, Georgia. He has played for the University of Georgia where he broke records. He has represented Georgia on the national spotlight as an athlete.

Ask me if I care

[Real Texan Politics]

Trump campaigning with Walker could boost republican turnout (more so than Kemp), possibly enough for this to still go to a runoff which I do expect Warnock to win if the energy is on his side.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In a fair election I think Warnock wins this easily, but I'm concerned that GA's voter suppression could disrupt that.

It begins! 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Herschel Walker is old news, WARNOCK is today's news, Herschel Walker isn't Kayne West whom is beloved by Afro American and Latino Community, thats why James have had such a hard time winning in MI

But, he will come close and so will James or Craig in MI

[brucejoel99]

Very smart to remind people that you do NOT currently live in Georgia and have lived in Texas *for decades* yet think you're entitled to represent Georgia in the Senate...

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1405530018902511616

Walker was born and raised in Wrightsville, Georgia. He has played for the University of Georgia where he broke records. He has represented Georgia on the national spotlight as an athlete. Meanwhile Warnock was to busy driving over his wife's foot and preaching hate sermons.

Meanwhile, Warnock is the incumbent Class III Senator from GA, which means you're not supposed to be on here, coward.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

[brucejoel99]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President

No, I objectively don't remember there being any point in time at which Fred Thompson was gonna be President.

[Roll Roons]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

I don't think anyone actually thought Swann had a serious chance of winning.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1409958941610680325?s=19

[Minnesota Mike]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

I don't think anyone actually thought Swann had a serious chance of winning.

Not sure anyone serious thinks Walker has much of a chance of winning either.

[SnowLabrador]

Walker has a good chance at winning, as does any Republican. This is Georgia in a Biden midterm.

[brucejoel99]

And when this doesn't work out, he can run for the Senate again in 2024 by primarying Cruz back where he actually lives.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

[Pielover]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

I cannot imagine how insufferable his son will be if he wins

[Woody]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

Ever heard of Hunter Biden?

[GALeftist]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

Ever heard of Hunter Biden?

Say what you will about Hunter Biden, but he is astronomically cooler than Chr*stian.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

Ever heard of Hunter Biden?

Say what you will about Hunter Biden, but he is astronomically cooler than Chr*stian.

If Rs take the H, they will investigate him

[Woody]

Walker by a hefty margin. Setting aside the new voting protection laws that will leave out shenanigans this time around, the Atlanta suburbs are not as polarized as the rest of the state evidenced by Perdue & McCormick outperforming the first round in November, a single nudge towards Walker would collapse the wall Democrats need to win here.

Pretty bold to assume that Georgia is destined to become solid tilt D because of Georgia's "polarized electorate" when your winning strategy literally depends on out of state suburbinates who would turn a blind eye to the democrats the second they don't have orange man to take out their frustration on.

Unlike Democrats who have literally nowhere else to expand in the Rurals, Republicans still have room to expand in the Black Belt, and Walker is the best recruit, considering he was born and raised there. Hell, even some Black Belt counties swung and trended R from Isakson to Loeffler of all people.