GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires
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  GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires
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Author Topic: GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires  (Read 138382 times)
Horus
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« Reply #225 on: June 04, 2021, 08:28:49 AM »
« edited: June 04, 2021, 08:32:05 AM by Horus »



No chance. If David Perdue's angry walk through the field wasn't enough... Just picture this guy on a debate stage with Warnock.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #226 on: June 04, 2021, 09:48:34 AM »

Now sis...

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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #227 on: June 04, 2021, 10:15:30 AM »

Now sis...



Delivered vaccines, which they won't take. What ridiculous logic.
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Terlylane
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« Reply #228 on: June 04, 2021, 10:19:52 AM »

Now sis...



Delivered vaccines, which they won't take. What ridiculous logic.
When did Loeffler say she wouldn’t take the vaccine?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #229 on: June 04, 2021, 11:03:40 AM »

Now sis...



Delivered vaccines, which they won't take. What ridiculous logic.
When did Loeffler say she wouldn’t take the vaccine?

You must be thinking of her sister who wears trucker hats, plaid shirts, and jeans, Shelley Loeffler. This is the rich-af socialite Kelly.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #230 on: June 05, 2021, 01:03:56 AM »



No chance. If David Perdue's angry walk through the field wasn't enough... Just picture this guy on a debate stage with Warnock.



The fact that this man is only 63 blows my mind. He's over a decade younger than Mitt Romney.
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Blair
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« Reply #231 on: June 05, 2021, 04:07:46 PM »

Would be interested to hear from GA posters... my uneducated guess is that he’s stronger than some random MAGA step rep?
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GALeftist
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« Reply #232 on: June 05, 2021, 04:16:03 PM »

Would be interested to hear from GA posters... my uneducated guess is that he’s stronger than some random MAGA step rep?

I suspect that the vast majority of Georgia voters do not know who this person is. He was a tad bit stronger that most Georgia Republicans in 2018, and I think he's certainly not their worst pick, but I would not go with him if I was the GAGOP
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #233 on: June 05, 2021, 04:16:50 PM »

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

So in short, they are substantially more popular, as is the President, then when they won their seats?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #234 on: June 05, 2021, 04:32:14 PM »

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

So in short, they are substantially more popular, as is the President, then when they won their seats?

Yes.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #235 on: June 05, 2021, 06:53:19 PM »



No chance. If David Perdue's angry walk through the field wasn't enough... Just picture this guy on a debate stage with Warnock.



The fact that this man is only 63 blows my mind. He's over a decade younger than Mitt Romney.

Yet another example of how people age at different rates. You have some people who are grayed and look elderly by the time they hit 50, and others at that age who look like they are in their 30s.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #236 on: June 07, 2021, 07:15:18 AM »

Now sis...





Wow, zooming in on his face and he looks like he's aged ten years.
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Lognog
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« Reply #237 on: June 07, 2021, 07:45:30 AM »

Now sis...



Wow, zooming in on his face and he looks like he's aged ten years.

Same with Loeffler
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #238 on: June 07, 2021, 09:45:56 AM »

Now sis...



Wow, zooming in on his face and he looks like he's aged ten years.

Same with Loeffler
Her dress’s pattern isn’t doing her any favors.
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patzer
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« Reply #239 on: June 07, 2021, 04:05:50 PM »

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #240 on: June 07, 2021, 08:18:10 PM »

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #241 on: June 07, 2021, 08:23:24 PM »

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #242 on: June 07, 2021, 08:43:03 PM »

In my opinion this race is Likely D.
You've got the natural trends in Georgia, the personal popularity of Warnock, the infighting in the Republican Party there (non-Trumpists vs Trumpists), the good polling, the terrible image of the voter suppression laws (water bottles) likely alienating moderates, and the way the economy and baseline factors like that are likely to be decent for the Dems in 2022.

The Republicans can in theory win the race, but everything needs to fall right for them.

I honestly think the runoff law/50%+1 rule is a better argument for rating this Lean D (not Likely) than any of the things you listed. It may be less difficult than we think for someone like Walker to win a very narrow plurality in the first round, but I maintain that people underestimate how much of an uphill battle any runoff election will be for the GOP here. If they want to beat Warnock, they have to do it in November.

Disagree here. The runoff makes it Lean R, not Lean D. There's no guarantee Warnock's base will show up for a second straight January runoff.

Both sides probably have to win in November in reality, but Republicans are still better positioned to win a hypothetical runoff.

On the other hand, if the race were to be decided in November with someone getting over 50%, that someone would probably be Warnock.

*December, now. The new election overhaul law moved federal run-offs back to early December, with military & overseas voters being sent an instant-runoff ranked choice absentee ballot - like Louisiana does - in order to comply with UOCAVA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #243 on: June 08, 2021, 01:57:30 AM »

It's gonna be a NPVI 52/48 the same exact Approvals of Joe Biden right now and D's matches the exact Approvals of their Inc Prez if polling holds it a 304 blue wall map, and WARNOCK narrowly wins the Runoffs despite if Abrams run or not

OH or NC are wave insurence in case we don't win GA, but we haven't seen any polls and we won't know about those states anyways when the LV sample comes out with usually Mason Dixon polls not RV, RV gives us a false sample on Mason Dixon states

But, NH is lone exception Change usually polls right and last Change poll had Hassan at 55% Approvals, over 50%
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MargieCat
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« Reply #244 on: June 08, 2021, 02:23:51 AM »

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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #245 on: June 09, 2021, 12:58:09 PM »


Maybe Herschel Walker is sleepwalking to victory?
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #246 on: June 09, 2021, 03:23:23 PM »


Maybe Herschel Walker is sleepwalking to victory?

Or he just isn't gonna run?
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #247 on: June 09, 2021, 03:39:18 PM »


Maybe Herschel Walker is sleepwalking to victory?

Or he just isn't gonna run?
If he doesn’t run, then Raphael Warnock probably survives by about 2%. .
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S019
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« Reply #248 on: June 09, 2021, 03:43:50 PM »


Maybe Herschel Walker is sleepwalking to victory?

Or he just isn't gonna run?
If he doesn’t run, then Raphael Warnock probably survives by about 2%. .

Georgia has consistently trended blue each year since like 2012, I think Warnock wins by anywhere from 1-3, with that margin being pretty inelastic. It is possible Republicans win the state, but it's quite unlikely due to the state's inelasticity and rural/urban polarization. Simply, rurals are almost maxed out for Republicans and the Atlanta metro continues to trend D, this is not a good recipe for a Republican win.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #249 on: June 09, 2021, 04:49:30 PM »

The race could tilt or possibly even lean to Perdue if one or both of the below events occur:
    a.) Warnock becomes unpopular / is too liberal for Georgia voters / makes a gaffe, possibly relating to Israel / Palestine, that alienates some supporters.
   b.) The 2022 midterms are good for the GOP.

Assuming neither of the above occur, then the race is tossup or tilt Democratic. While Warnock may be the incumbent, remember, he won in 2020 because of a surge in turnout in Atlanta and the gravity of the race. If 2022 is a decent year for Democrats and the race progresses to a runoff, it's possible turnout is down from 2021 since the race matters less and Perdue wins. If, conversely, 2022/2023 is a repeat of 2020/2021, with it being a 50-50 tie and the Senate balance hinging on the Georgia race, then perhaps Warnock, since Perdue is a somewhat weakish candidate, given that he underperformed Trump in 2020 by 1% in a year where Trump did historically bad for a Republican presidential candidate in Georgia.
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