GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This race is tossup tilt D. Warnock is the future of the Georgia Democratic party and the new Sunbelt coalition.  2020 Georgia was Virginia in 2006. I find it weird how people are writing Warnock off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

[S019]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

Imagine thinking Trafalgar is a legit firm...

[Sir Mohamed]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

Imagine thinking Trafalgar is a legit firm...

They aren't, but were more accurate than Quinnipiac in 2020. As embarrassing as it is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

Imagine thinking Trafalgar is a legit firm...

They aren't, but were more accurate than Quinnipiac in 2020. As embarrassing as it is.

Trafalgar has a particularly bad record in Georgia.

[Woody]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

[Skunk]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Impressive you wrote this all with only one hand.

[Devils30]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Yeah, Georgia is definitely flipping back red post Trump and Ohio will once again be blue. Give me a break!

[Lognog]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

How did your last take about a Georgia Senate race work out for you?

If Warnock wins, can you actually leave?

[Meatball Ron]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Oh good christ you cannot be serious

[brucejoel99]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Oh good christ you cannot be serious

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that it's just been some type of absurdist performance art all along.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Oh good christ you cannot be serious

The South is trending fast R while the N is trendinf D, U have Rs netting 10 seats in H and D's winning 24 Gs with 278 Freiwall and D's winning WI, PA, NH in the Senate.

Which State changed R last time AL, a Southern state

D's performance will match Biden 51/49 Approvals and a D plus 2 Election Ds lose the H but keep Senate

I want to see what the Hunter Biden investation takes us into when Speaker Mccarthy investation
Harris is the backup candidate for 2024

[MT Treasurer]

I actually think there’s a narrow path for Walker to win/Warnock to lose, but it will require everything to fall into place & it would be a somewhat unconventional R winning coalition by GA standards. Walker’s not going to win by converting supposedly "undecided", "moderate" Atlanta suburbanites/exurbanites who voted out their generic R Senator to give Biden a trifecta in a runoff election, he’s going to do it by pushing R base turnout to Nov. 2020 levels (Perdue did receive more voters than Ossoff in that election), activating a small but non-insignificant untapped base of fairly apolitical voters in the urban areas in particular, and accelerating trends among non-college-educated voters of color, primarily by portraying himself as an outsider and focusing on culture wars (that All-Star Game boycott controversy might have been a preview of this). It’s narrowing the gap in Clayton/DeKalb more so than clawing back lost ground in Cobb/Forsyth that’s his best path.

I’m not saying that that’s likely to happen, but it’s probably his (or any Republican's) best and only chance in the GA of 2022. Obviously this is a near-guaranteed D win in 2028 regardless of what happens next year.

[Devils30]

I actually think there’s a narrow path for Walker to win/Warnock to lose, but it will require everything to fall into place & it would be a somewhat unconventional R winning coalition by GA standards. Walker’s not going to win by converting supposedly "undecided", "moderate" Atlanta suburbanites/exurbanites who voted out their generic R Senator to give Biden a trifecta in a runoff election, he’s going to do it by pushing R base turnout to Nov. 2020 levels (Perdue did receive more voters than Ossoff in that election), activating a small but non-insignificant untapped base of fairly apolitical voters in the urban areas in particular, and accelerating trends among non-college-educated voters of color, primarily by portraying himself as an outsider and focusing on culture wars (that All-Star Game boycott controversy might have been a preview of this). It’s narrowing the gap in Clayton/DeKalb more so than clawing back lost ground in Cobb/Forsyth that’s his best path.

I’m not saying that that’s likely to happen, but it’s probably his (or any Republican's) best and only chance in the GA of 2022. Obviously this is a near-guaranteed D win in 2028 regardless of what happens next year.

Warnock is a good candidate with working- class black voters, he is one of them. Walker won't do well in the suburbs and I'm skeptical he can move in from Texas and win in the general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I actually think there’s a narrow path for Walker to win/Warnock to lose, but it will require everything to fall into place & it would be a somewhat unconventional R winning coalition by GA standards. Walker’s not going to win by converting supposedly "undecided", "moderate" Atlanta suburbanites/exurbanites who voted out their generic R Senator to give Biden a trifecta in a runoff election, he’s going to do it by pushing R base turnout to Nov. 2020 levels (Perdue did receive more voters than Ossoff in that election), activating a small but non-insignificant untapped base of fairly apolitical voters in the urban areas in particular, and accelerating trends among non-college-educated voters of color, primarily by portraying himself as an outsider and focusing on culture wars (that All-Star Game boycott controversy might have been a preview of this). It’s narrowing the gap in Clayton/DeKalb more so than clawing back lost ground in Cobb/Forsyth that’s his best path.

I’m not saying that that’s likely to happen, but it’s probably his (or any Republican's) best and only chance in the GA of 2022. Obviously this is a near-guaranteed D win in 2028 regardless of what happens next year.

Warnock is a good candidate with working- class black voters, he is one of them. Walker won't do well in the suburbs and I'm skeptical he can move in from Texas and win in the general.

Herschel Walker is a martial artist on Tv every D Hassan, KElly, CCM, Fetterman and Nelson are above 50percent, D's don't need GA to win the Prez, it's gonna be the first state to return to the R fold, Herschel Walker is like Kayne West to Afro Americans, underestimate Heschek Walker at your will.  Hassan is at 55 percent Approvals in the last Change Research poll, she isn't losing.

Any politician under 50 can lose and last poll it was Walker 47/45. I probably endorse Walker when the maps come out


That's why Rubio and McCrory will win they are at 50

[wbrocks67]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

[SnowLabrador]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Polling, you say? Are we still playing this game?

[Roll Roons]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Polling, you say? Are we still playing this game?

Polls were actually decent in Georgia.

[wbrocks67]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Polling, you say? Are we still playing this game?

Polls were actually decent in Georgia.

Especially AJC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Herschel Walker in the last poll is leading WARNOCK 47/45, this race will go to a Runoff, and Brian Kemp was leading Stacy Abrams, if Abrams doesn't announce soon, which she was asked on MTP and she declined to run, Kemp is gonna be an ENTRENCHED INCUMBENT

[Bomster]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna gain two seats and lose 1, net gain 1 and it's gonna be a 51/49 Majority

D's don't need GA to win the EC college in 2024 and in 2024 it's gonna be the samething with Joe Manchin.

If it's a 51/49 Senate Sinema if D's control H would be the tie breaker on DC Statehood, IMAGINE THAT.  BIDEN IS AT 51/49 APPROVALS AND IN MIDTERNS DS PERFORMANCE MATCHES PREZ APPROVALS. BIDEN IS not at 60% anymore

Hassan can win. Once we get a Dem Nominee for Gov and in GA Kemp even if Abrams runs is leading Abrams in last pl. Nathan Deal and Sonny Perdue won Reelection

[brucejoel99]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

48 is not enough.

The very same pollster's last pre-election poll that featured favorability numbers - from early Oct., it was their second-to-last pre-election poll overall - had Trump at 48/50 to Biden at 44/52, Perdue at 49/40 to Ossoff at 43/44, & Loeffler at 34/46 to Warnock at 37/29 (with Collins at 36/36). Their last pre-election poll overall, from late Oct., didn't feature any favorability numbers for Biden or the Senate candidates but had Trump at 49/50. Given that, 48 is more than enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't have to win GA, we didn't have to win it in 2008/12 it was a solid R state until 2020, since 1992 and it's a Runoff anyways, WARNOCK can lose in a Runoff to Herschel Walker

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1400804696474877956?s=21