GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[SnowLabrador]

What do you guys think it would say about the Georgia trends if Warnock just barely lost?

I think it would say that there was just enough of an out of party bump to pull an R ahead, but that it would likely be the last GOP victory for a while and the state would still be clearly trending Democratic in the future.

Well, if not for voter suppression, I'd call it equivalent to CO-SEN 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe it's time to start saying that Warnock will help Abrams and not the other way around? If we're going to make sweeping assumptions about candidate caliber and performance from previous elections, then it can just as easily be noted that Warnock did 3.5 points better, produced a blacker electorate and got a significantly higher share of whites - all during a runoff/special election and with 15% higher raw turnout.

Code:

2018 GOV (3.9m votes)
White	62.5%   25% D
Black	31.6%   93% D
Other	5.9%     64% D

2020 PRES (5.0m votes)
White	61.5%   29% D
Black	31.0%   88% D
Other	7.5%     58% D

2021 SENATE (4.5m votes)
White	62.1%   29% D
Black	31.8%   93% D
Other	6.1%     57% D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is a runoff state, the chances of either one avoiding a Runoff is low anyways they have to get 50.1, everyone thinks it's a lock for D's last poll had Walker 47 and WARNOCK 45, falling well below 50%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What do you guys think it would say about the Georgia trends if Warnock just barely lost?

I think it would say that there was just enough of an out of party bump to pull an R ahead, but that it would likely be the last GOP victory for a while and the state would still be clearly trending Democratic in the future.

Folks were saying that back in October when it appeared that Georgia could go for Biden but it was just "not there yet".

And then they were saying that back in December when a Georgia runoff meant that Democrats had a 1% chance of winning 1 statewide seat (Let alone 2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maybe it's time to start saying that Warnock will help Abrams and not the other way around? If we're going to make sweeping assumptions about candidate caliber and performance from previous elections, then it can just as easily be noted that Warnock did 3.5 points better, produced a blacker electorate and got a significantly higher share of whites - all during a runoff/special election and with 15% higher raw turnout.

Code:

2018 GOV (3.9m votes)
White	62.5%   25% D
Black	31.6%   93% D
Other	5.9%     64% D

2020 PRES (5.0m votes)
White	61.5%   29% D
Black	31.0%   88% D
Other	7.5%     58% D

2021 SENATE (4.5m votes)
White	62.1%   29% D
Black	31.8%   93% D
Other	6.1%     57% D

That has less to do with candidate quality and maybe more to do with the 1 million plus new voters added to the rolls AFTER 2018, and the attention that Abrams’ loss brought to voting in Georgia. They are both phenomenal and we couldn’t ask for a better tag team at the top of the ticket.

[Canis]

Maybe it's time to start saying that Warnock will help Abrams and not the other way around? If we're going to make sweeping assumptions about candidate caliber and performance from previous elections, then it can just as easily be noted that Warnock did 3.5 points better, produced a blacker electorate and got a significantly higher share of whites - all during a runoff/special election and with 15% higher raw turnout.

Code:

2018 GOV (3.9m votes)
White	62.5%   25% D
Black	31.6%   93% D
Other	5.9%     64% D

2020 PRES (5.0m votes)
White	61.5%   29% D
Black	31.0%   88% D
Other	7.5%     58% D

2021 SENATE (4.5m votes)
White	62.1%   29% D
Black	31.8%   93% D
Other	6.1%     57% D

That has less to do with candidate quality and maybe more to do with the 1 million plus new voters added to the rolls AFTER 2018, and the attention that Abrams’ loss brought to voting in Georgia. They are both phenomenal and we couldn’t ask for a better tag team at the top of the ticket.

GA is one of the states I'm most optimistic about for 2022 only thing I'm worried about is the voter suppression bills the GA dems need to make the GOP pay for it and make it the GA GOP's prop 187 moment.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

This is probably the best news for Kemp, but probably also good news for Warnock / Abrams?

[SnowLabrador]

Wow, I really thought he would run. I guess the primary is Herschel Walker's if he wants it.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

HOLY SH*T THIS IS HUGE

[beesley]

Slightly surprised but it makes sense in the context.

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

I'm pretty surprised. It sort of makes sense though, since Trump has essentially already endorsed Walker for Senate and probably is going to endorse Jones for Governor, and Collins didn't want to risk it. Kemp is probably still toast, though.

P.S., RIP to the political career of slim Peter Griffin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since Crt packing is off the table, Hassan and SHAHEEN have come out against it, this lifts s burden of D's, WARNOCK is favored.

They don't have 50 votes for Crt Packing

[GALeftist]

If Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker, Stacey Abrams, and Raphael Warnock all win their primaries (perhaps the modal outcome at this point), all candidates for Governor and Senate will be black. Pretty incredible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker, Stacey Abrams, and Raphael Warnock all win their primaries (perhaps the modal outcome at this point), all candidates for Governor and Senate will be black. Pretty incredible.

I think it's very unlikely that Jones will win his primary.  IMO Kemp is in a stronger position than a lot of people give him credit for.

[tjstarling]

If Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker, Stacey Abrams, and Raphael Warnock all win their primaries (perhaps the modal outcome at this point), all candidates for Governor and Senate will be black. Pretty incredible.

I think it's very unlikely that Jones will win his primary.  IMO Kemp is in a stronger position than a lot of people give him credit for.

Has Kemp’s position with Republicans improved since the hoopla over the voting reform legislation?

[Canis]

wow Collins clearing the field for Walker is unexpected I really don't see Hershell Walker beating Warnock but what do the GA posters think?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

wow Collins clearing the field for Walker is unexpected I really don't see Hershell Walker beating Warnock but what do the GA posters think?

...Walker was leading WARNOCK 47/45

This seat isn't safe, it's a Runoff, thats why Ds are targeting OH Ryan and Sand in IA in case there is a Runoff in GA to ensure wave insurance if they nominate Beasley instead of Jackson, they will lose to Lara Trump or McCrory

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

I'm pretty surprised. It sort of makes sense though, since Trump has essentially already endorsed Walker for Senate and probably is going to endorse Jones for Governor, and Collins didn't want to risk it. Kemp is probably still toast, though.

While I don't necessarily agree that Kemp is toast, I do think it is interesting that a former football player/current Texas resident, and a former Democratic State Representative, have effectively kept other credible Republican candidates from running for Senate and Governor in Georgia.

[Devils30]

wow Collins clearing the field for Walker is unexpected I really don't see Hershell Walker beating Warnock but what do the GA posters think?

...Walker was leading WARNOCK 47/45

This seat isn't safe, it's a Runoff, thats why Ds are targeting OH Ryan and Sand in IA in case there is a Runoff in GA to ensure wave insurance if they nominate Beasley instead of Jackson, they will lose to Lara Trump or McCrory

You do realize Trafalgar literally just makes up numbers and hopes they stick..right?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The worst thing about Hershel Walker is his absolutely just self entitled egotistical son getting more privilege

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

I'm pretty surprised. It sort of makes sense though, since Trump has essentially already endorsed Walker for Senate and probably is going to endorse Jones for Governor, and Collins didn't want to risk it. Kemp is probably still toast, though.

While I don't necessarily agree that Kemp is toast, I do think it is interesting that a former football player/current Texas resident, and a former Democratic State Representative, have effectively kept other credible Republican candidates from running for Senate and Governor in Georgia.

Vernon Jones isn’t keeping anybody from running for Governor. The GA GOP is fully behind Kemp and honestly the GOP voters will be too.

[Real Texan Politics]

wow Collins clearing the field for Walker is unexpected I really don't see Hershell Walker beating Warnock but what do the GA posters think?

...Walker was leading WARNOCK 47/45

This seat isn't safe, it's a Runoff, thats why Ds are targeting OH Ryan and Sand in IA in case there is a Runoff in GA to ensure wave insurance if they nominate Beasley instead of Jackson, they will lose to Lara Trump or McCrory

You do realize Trafalgar literally just makes up numbers and hopes they stick..right?

Their track record is ESPECIALLY bad in Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe it's time to start saying that Warnock will help Abrams and not the other way around? If we're going to make sweeping assumptions about candidate caliber and performance from previous elections, then it can just as easily be noted that Warnock did 3.5 points better, produced a blacker electorate and got a significantly higher share of whites - all during a runoff/special election and with 15% higher raw turnout.

Code:

2018 GOV (3.9m votes)
White	62.5%   25% D
Black	31.6%   93% D
Other	5.9%     64% D

2020 PRES (5.0m votes)
White	61.5%   29% D
Black	31.0%   88% D
Other	7.5%     58% D

2021 SENATE (4.5m votes)
White	62.1%   29% D
Black	31.8%   93% D
Other	6.1%     57% D

That has less to do with candidate quality and maybe more to do with the 1 million plus new voters added to the rolls AFTER 2018, and the attention that Abrams’ loss brought to voting in Georgia. They are both phenomenal and we couldn’t ask for a better tag team at the top of the ticket.

Yep, you pretty much hit the nail on the head of what I was trying to convey. I could have phrased it better, but my original point was essentially aimed at those (both here and off-site) who are expressing some semblance of "what if Warnock is on track to lose by 10 points: will God Empress Stacey's coat-tails save him?". Both you and I know the state and what governs its political progress: it's hilarious that some think that one candidate will somehow contribute a massive amount performance-wise to another where it otherwise wouldn't be present.

The one area I'll push back on is raw turnout increase. Between 2016 and 2018, GA saw a net increase of approximately 800k active RVs and Abrams did approximately 3.5 points better than Clinton. Between 2018 and 2020, GA saw another net increase of approximately 800k active RVs and Warnock did yet again about 3.5 points better than Abrams. The uber-vast majority of RV increase and participation came from AVR - which of course was a fairly predictable factor once it was implemented post-2016 and given DMV/DDS patterns of license renewal (at least in hindsight).

Essentially, both Abrams and Warnock both performed as expected in hindsight and given these trends. However, there were still major diverging trends in each election cycle that in net terms cancelled out otherwise major factors (I'm going to post my findings on this matter in the next day or so in the main GA megathread on the statewide board).

[It’s so Joever]

Likely R -> Lean R