GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Rookie Yinzer]

I still expect Warnock to lose, though.

And you know this a whole 18 months before a single vote is cast. Wow!

[KaiserDave]

Warnock is gonna be fine, the guy's a beast.

[Real Texan Politics]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1379245375219961861?s=20

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1379245375219961861?s=20

undoubtedly the best move he could do for his career (besides K street)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov Kemp is easily gonna get Reelected that's why Abrams refused to say on MTP that she was gonna definitely run for Gov

[Lambsbread]

Herschel Walker says publicly that he is considering a challenge to Warnock:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1381254852743925762?s=21

[brucejoel99]

Herschel Walker says publicly that he is considering a challenge to Warnock:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1381254852743925762?s=21

His candidacy will go over about as well as Angela Stanton-King's campaign against John Lewis/Nikema Williams did.

[Devils30]

Curious question, what was the last cycle the Georgia GOP actually made gains in? Dems improved here from 2012-14 even while collapsing nationwide, 2014-16, 2016-18, 2018-20 all had Dems improve their numbers. People overrate demographic change all the time but in Georgia new voters in 2021-22 will be an obstacle for GOP on top of recent trends.

[brucejoel99]

Curious question, what was the last cycle the Georgia GOP actually made gains in? Dems improved here from 2012-14 even while collapsing nationwide, 2014-16, 2016-18, 2018-20 all had Dems improve their numbers. People overrate demographic change all the time but in Georgia new voters in 2021-22 will be an obstacle for GOP on top of recent trends.

2010-12, comparing their cycle's elections with the highest turnout: GA-GOV & GA-PRES, respectively.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp is probably gonna get Reelected, every R Gov have been Reelected Deal and Perdue, there will be split voting.

Just like OH Send Mandel is is trouble with a Tim Ryan challenge and DeWine is safe


D's win net OH, NC, PA and WI

2018 AZ and OH split their votes, GA and OH seem likely this time in another Midterms

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1381547644896604160?s=21

[wbrocks67]

LMAO at Herschel Walker, a current Texas resident, thinking about running for *Georgia*s seat.

[Sir Mohamed]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1381547644896604160?s=21

He doesn't seem like a top-tier candidate to me. I don't think he'll be the nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

I'd expect if MTG ran and somehow got through to the GE that the GOP would triage her pretty fast. Focus elsewhere.

[VAR]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

It really takes a lot more than being a crazy person to win a GOP primary. The problem for Greene isn’t really her beliefs per se, it’s that she has no real appeal to the R base other than being a “slightly” crazy lady who loves Trump. She will coast to victory in GA-14, but that’s only because she’s the incumbent.

Would she defeat a Never Trumper? Yes, there’s absolutely no doubts about that. But I don’t get why she would even come close to winning against a generic Trumpist, i.e. Collins, Walker, etc.

[Lognog]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

It really takes a lot more than being a crazy person to win a GOP primary.The problem for Greene isn’t really her beliefs per se, it’s that she has no real appeal to the R base other than being a “slightly” crazy lady who loves Trump. She will coast to victory in GA-14, but that’s only because she’s the incumbent.

Would she defeat a Never Trumper? Yes, there’s absolutely no doubts about that. But I don’t get why she would even come close to winning against a generic Trumpist, i.e. Collins, Walker, etc.

Nevada 2010
Wisconsin 2010
Delaware 2010
Indiana 2012
Maryland 2012
Missouri 2012
Texas 2012
Arizona 2018
Arizona 2020
Alabama 2020
Delaware 2020

you don't HAVE to, but trust me it helps

[Roll Roons]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

It really takes a lot more than being a crazy person to win a GOP primary.The problem for Greene isn’t really her beliefs per se, it’s that she has no real appeal to the R base other than being a “slightly” crazy lady who loves Trump. She will coast to victory in GA-14, but that’s only because she’s the incumbent.

Would she defeat a Never Trumper? Yes, there’s absolutely no doubts about that. But I don’t get why she would even come close to winning against a generic Trumpist, i.e. Collins, Walker, etc.

Nevada 2010
Wisconsin 2010
Delaware 2010
Indiana 2012
Maryland 2012
Missouri 2012
Texas 2012
Arizona 2018
Arizona 2020
Alabama 2020
Delaware 2020

you don't HAVE to, but trust me it helps

McSally was the moderate option in 2018 against Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, and she was running as an incumbent in 2020. Oregon 2020 might be a better example.

[Lognog]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

It really takes a lot more than being a crazy person to win a GOP primary.The problem for Greene isn’t really her beliefs per se, it’s that she has no real appeal to the R base other than being a “slightly” crazy lady who loves Trump. She will coast to victory in GA-14, but that’s only because she’s the incumbent.

Would she defeat a Never Trumper? Yes, there’s absolutely no doubts about that. But I don’t get why she would even come close to winning against a generic Trumpist, i.e. Collins, Walker, etc.

Nevada 2010
Wisconsin 2010
Delaware 2010
Indiana 2012
Maryland 2012
Missouri 2012
Texas 2012
Arizona 2018
Arizona 2020
Alabama 2020
Delaware 2020

you don't HAVE to, but trust me it helps

McSally was the moderate option in 2018 against Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, and she was running as an incumbent in 2020. Oregon 2020 might be a better example.

Fair I forgot that one

[Tiger08]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1382634811509080064

[Frenchrepublican]

Obviously money is not everything (ask Harrisson), but those are very strong numbers for Warnock
https://twitter.com/politicalinsidr/status/1382668863024865283?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

Obviously money is not everything (ask Harrisson), but those are very strong numbers for Warnock
https://twitter.com/politicalinsidr/status/1382668863024865283?s=20

Abrams potentially being on the ballot in 2022 would more than likely also help him A LOT.

Wouldn't surprise me if they both did like a mega-rally at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta with like Oprah and Ossoff and Biden and Harris.

[Pink Panther]

Obviously money is not everything (ask Harrisson), but those are very strong numbers for Warnock
https://twitter.com/politicalinsidr/status/1382668863024865283?s=20

Abrams potentially being on the ballot in 2022 would more than likely also help him A LOT.

Wouldn't surprise me if they both did like a mega-rally at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta with like Oprah and Ossoff and Biden and Harris.

Honestly, that would include someone like LeBron and Obama as well.

[Ridgemaple]

What do you guys think it would say about the Georgia trends if Warnock just barely lost?

I think it would say that there was just enough of an out of party bump to pull an R ahead, but that it would likely be the last GOP victory for a while and the state would still be clearly trending Democratic in the future.