Could the Massachusetts State Senate or Wyoming State Senate become all D/all R soon?

[Alcibiades]

Wyoming is unlikely because I think the two seats represented by Ds are significant Native areas. 

There’s also the point that both Wyoming, a very urban mountain state, and Massachusetts, a pretty catholic white ethnic state, are trending towards being more competitive, not less. 

Zaybay has already shown that, if anything, the opposite is true for Massachusetts’ trend, but this is also a very odd way to frame its political demographics. The reason that it is so D, and not going to change anytime soon, is that it is the most college-educated state in the nation, and a fairly secular one (IIRC, Boston shockingly actually has one of the lowest % of practising Catholics of any of the historically white ethnic major cities).

[Alcibiades]

Wyoming is unlikely because I think the two seats represented by Ds are significant Native areas. 

There’s also the point that both Wyoming, a very urban mountain state, and Massachusetts, a pretty catholic white ethnic state, are trending towards being more competitive, not less. 

Zaybay has already shown that, if anything, the opposite is true for Massachusetts’ trend, but this is also a very odd way to frame its political demographics. The reason that it is so D, and not going to change anytime soon, is that it is the most college-educated state in the nation, and a fairly secular one (IIRC, Boston shockingly actually has one of the lowest % of practising Catholics of any of the historically white ethnic major cities).

I still stand by my claim that the states are trending in rather opposite directions.  Top-line trends towards Democrats in Massachusetts are mostly the result of D swings in populous Boston and its suburbs, but parts of Western Mass and Bristol Co trended toward Trump in both 2016 and 2020.  In the current alignment, I think Massachusetts will abandon being so idiosyncratically Democratic and fall into the usual, national trend of urban/suburban - exurban/rural political divergence.  That doesn't mean I think MA will be remotely competitive anytime soon, but I think later this decade and into the 2030s it won't be unusual for non-metro parts of the state to prefer sending Republicans to the state house.     

All of this pretty much applies in the opposite partisn direction in Wyoming. 

I haven’t got access to the town trend map because I’m not a member of the Atlas, but just eyeballing the 2016 and 2020 maps, it seems that the vast majority of rural towns in those areas trended towards Biden. I just don’t think there’s any hard evidence that Massachusetts is trending R in its rural areas, let alone the state as a whole, having actually trended towards both Clinton and Biden (and if the suburbs are out-trending the rural areas, then obviously the state overall is trending in the former’s direction). I don’t think there’s any reason to think that national rural trends can be applied to New England’s very idiosyncratic rural areas (there’s a reason why they bounced back hard to Biden, whereas those in the Midwest didn’t), except in ME-02. Ultimately, though, education levels are the number one predictor of trends in the current alignment, and in that respect, there isn’t a worse state for the GOP.