St. Louis Mayoral Election 2021 - First Round March 2

As background, following four term mayor Francis Slay (of the Lebanese Slay political dynasty) announced that he would not run for reelection ahead of Spring 2017, the powers that be in the Southside machine cast about a consensus candidate in order to hold on to the mayor's office. They eventually settled on Lyda Krewson, the matronly alderwoman for the 28th Ward (the affluent Central West End, home of the gun toting McCloskeys) as someone who the machine could rally behind. There was a similar attempt to coalesce support on the Northside by the black machine, with some forces attempting to get other black candidates to drop out in favor of Treasurer Tishaura Jones, the daughter of longtime Northside politician and convicted felon Virvus Jones. Virvus was the first black member of the Board of Adjustment when he was elected Comptroller back in the late 80s. However, Lewis Reed, the President of the Board of Alderman, who once represented the near southside gentrifying Lafayette Square neighborhood on the Board, refused to drop out. When the Democratic Primary rolled around, Krewson won by 2 points with 32% of the vote with black candidates taking the rest. Reed's support came almost entirely from the Northside but Jones has managed to brand herself as a progressive looking to shake things up in St. Louis and attracted a large number of votes from progressive white in the gentrifying neighborhoods around Tower Grove Park. Krewson relied on the traditional South City Catholic wards as well as the more well heeled ward in the Central Corridor and Downtown to stitch together her narrowest of pluralities.

As mentioned, the last four years have seen quite a bit of activity, and Krewson did not come out of it unscathed. She unsurprisingly announced that she would not be running for reelection a few months ago. She was especially damaged during the rounds of racial justice protests following the death of George Floyd, and she had alienated many of her white supporters earlier in her term during clashes with St. Louis' police union. There really was no path to reelection for her and she said that being in her late 60s has not been ideal given her role in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Krewson's only real legacy will be the successful big for a MLS expansion team, though she will also be remembered as "Lying Lyda".

The four major candidates angling for the now open mayoral seat are the before mentioned Lewis Reed and Tishaura Jones, as well as Alderwoman Cara Spencer, a southside progressive, and Republican Andrew Jones. The wrinkle added this past November was a reform passed by voters instituting a new nonpartisan approval voting system for local offices. This type of system, where you are allowed to vote for as many candidates as you want in the primary, with the top two vote getters advancing to the general, has never been tried before and seems likely to produce even more unrepresentative outcomes. Thus, all four candidates will be running on the same nonpartisan line. At present, what little polling available and intuition says that Jones and Reed are likely to advance to the runoff, meaning that St. Louis will have a black mayor for the first time in 20 years, in the same year that whites look set to pass blacks as the largest racial group in the City. This election is happening in the context of a large surge in homicides (262m, up from 194 in 2019, including a large number of black children) following the protests this summer, which the current administration has rightfully been accused of doing little to nothing about. Unlike 2017, there has been no effort by the Southside machine to rally support around Cara Spencer. The Southside machine, such that it even still exists, has been exhausted by the last 4 years, especially by their failed attempt to dispatch bungling Circuit Attorney Kimberly Gardner. Indeed, I have noticed quite a few signs for the Republican, Andrew Jones, in Southwest City, in yards that I have only ever seen signs for local machine Democrats. Andrew Jones is a Black Republican Businessman but does not seem to be running a particularly ideological campaign.

The runoff between Reed and Jones starts with Reed somewhat narrowly favored, as Jones is much, much more despised on the Southside, which Reed has spent the past 4 years making amends with. Indeed, in his President of the Board of Alderman reelection, he was saved by Catholic votes in Southwest City while his Northside base was cannibalized by State Senator Jamilah Nasheed and the progressive vote went to leftwing bomb thrower Alderwoman Megan Green. You would expect Reed to recover somewhat of his Northside support against Jones, who has many enemies among the Northside machine politicians, and to get most of his votes from the Southside, which will have much higher relative turnout to the hollowing out Northside in an April runoff. If there is interest, I can do more in depth profiles of the candidates or provide more commentary on contemporary political issues in the City of St. Louis. I will plan on updating this thread with results/maps and if there are any developments of interest in the race.

	Welcome, Guest. Please login or register. Did you miss your activation email? April 19, 2024, 04:18:48 PM

News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more