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March 04, 2021, 12:59:52 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Will the Republicans nominate a candidate as secular as Trump again?
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Author Topic: Will the Republicans nominate a candidate as secular as Trump again?  (Read 627 times)
The Pieman
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« on: February 14, 2021, 02:47:12 AM »

Apart from nominating Supreme Court Justices (which McConnell probably chooses anyway and Trump just does for the base), Trump has been an oddly secular Republican.
While Trump is very much right-wing on cultural issues like the environment, political correctness and immigration, he has been quite moderate on social issues usually tied to religion such as abortion and LGBT rights. In fact, Trump is the first GOP candidate to support gay marriage (and is still way to the left of most Republicans on the issue) and has historically been and probably secretly still is pro-choice.
Of course while in office Trump has let congressional Republicans and Pence run wild trying to prevent the separation of church and state, as Trump doesn't care about those issues much and it helps him win over his base.
But my question is will the GOP nominate a candidate as secular as Trump again? All the likely 2024 contenders are quite religious.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2021, 12:19:22 PM »

I am a broken record on this, and I know I am certainly in the minority here with this view, but I think that the Republican voter base (not to be confused with the group of GOP primary voters commonly referred to as "the GOP base") is remarkably more strategic and pragmatic than many Democrats and talking heads in the media realize or are willing to admit.  If a candidate is seen as furthering their goals (i.e., halting the advance of social liberalism and the "socialization" of American capitalism), they will look past just about anything.  Obviously, this doesn't describe all Republicans, and there are indeed those that fit the caricature of a "Trumper" to a T, but they represent a non-insignificant proportion of those who remained loyal to Trump, and they will have no problem supporting either A) a devout Evangelical who talks like Ted Cruz or B) someone who speaks of religion as infrequently as Donald Trump in 2024 if they see that person as the most likely to stop four years of Kamala Harris.
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SecularGlobalist
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2021, 12:46:04 PM »

Trump was banking on a "Silent Majority" of gayz who don't like brown people (yes, they exist; I've met a few) coming out to vote for him.  Especially after the nightclub shooting in Orlando.

I suppose it kinda worked in 2016.  Not so much in 2020.

Trump views immigrants as much more of an immediate threat than the homosexual community. 
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2021, 01:59:53 PM »

Trump was banking on a "Silent Majority" of gayz who don't like brown people (yes, they exist; I've met a few) coming out to vote for him.  Especially after the nightclub shooting in Orlando.

I suppose it kinda worked in 2016.  Not so much in 2020.

Trump views immigrants as much more of an immediate threat than the homosexual community. 

Trumpís overperformance relative to (Atlas/pundit) expectations in 2020 was due to brown people and immigrants from non-WEIRD countries.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2021, 07:31:37 PM »

Yes if that candidates plays their cards right in the primary, it is possible.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2021, 07:45:16 PM »

I am a broken record on this, and I know I am certainly in the minority here with this view, but I think that the Republican voter base (not to be confused with the group of GOP primary voters commonly referred to as "the GOP base") is remarkably more strategic and pragmatic than many Democrats and talking heads in the media realize or are willing to admit.  If a candidate is seen as furthering their goals (i.e., halting the advance of social liberalism and the "socialization" of American capitalism), they will look past just about anything.  Obviously, this doesn't describe all Republicans, and there are indeed those that fit the caricature of a "Trumper" to a T, but they represent a non-insignificant proportion of those who remained loyal to Trump, and they will have no problem supporting either A) a devout Evangelical who talks like Ted Cruz or B) someone who speaks of religion as infrequently as Donald Trump in 2024 if they see that person as the most likely to stop four years of Kamala Harris.
Then why did they vote for Trump over someone who was seen as having a better chance at beating Hillary?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2021, 07:47:07 PM »

I am a broken record on this, and I know I am certainly in the minority here with this view, but I think that the Republican voter base (not to be confused with the group of GOP primary voters commonly referred to as "the GOP base") is remarkably more strategic and pragmatic than many Democrats and talking heads in the media realize or are willing to admit.  If a candidate is seen as furthering their goals (i.e., halting the advance of social liberalism and the "socialization" of American capitalism), they will look past just about anything.  Obviously, this doesn't describe all Republicans, and there are indeed those that fit the caricature of a "Trumper" to a T, but they represent a non-insignificant proportion of those who remained loyal to Trump, and they will have no problem supporting either A) a devout Evangelical who talks like Ted Cruz or B) someone who speaks of religion as infrequently as Donald Trump in 2024 if they see that person as the most likely to stop four years of Kamala Harris.
Then why did they vote for Trump over someone who was seen as having a better chance at beating Hillary?

Who are you talking about? Trump had a better chance of winning than Cruz. If you mean Kasich, it was because Kasich hired on the Lincoln Project rejects of McCain world and nuked himself on their advise.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2021, 07:48:03 PM »

I am a broken record on this, and I know I am certainly in the minority here with this view, but I think that the Republican voter base (not to be confused with the group of GOP primary voters commonly referred to as "the GOP base") is remarkably more strategic and pragmatic than many Democrats and talking heads in the media realize or are willing to admit.  If a candidate is seen as furthering their goals (i.e., halting the advance of social liberalism and the "socialization" of American capitalism), they will look past just about anything.  Obviously, this doesn't describe all Republicans, and there are indeed those that fit the caricature of a "Trumper" to a T, but they represent a non-insignificant proportion of those who remained loyal to Trump, and they will have no problem supporting either A) a devout Evangelical who talks like Ted Cruz or B) someone who speaks of religion as infrequently as Donald Trump in 2024 if they see that person as the most likely to stop four years of Kamala Harris.
Then why did they vote for Trump over someone who was seen as having a better chance at beating Hillary?

Who are you talking about? Trump had a better chance of winning than Cruz. If you mean Kasich, it was because Kasich hired on the Lincoln Project rejects of McCain world and nuked himself on their advise.
How about Rubio?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2021, 09:15:45 AM »

Probably. DJT himself is the most likely 2024 primary winner
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Arachno-Statism
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2021, 12:30:17 PM »

Trump's secularism will probably be the standard going forward. The religious revival of the late 20th century is dying with the Boomers. At its peak, the religious right had influence in both parties (i.e. Jimmy Carter). Their herding into the Republican Party, and their inability to push Huckabee, Santorum, or Cruz to victory in Republican primaries since 2008, should be looked at as a sign of their decline. In 1996, they were strong enough to force Dole to pick a pro-life running mate. In 2016, Trump wasn't forced to pick Pence. In fact, he was his second choice. Christianity might still pop up in the rhetoric of alt-right candidates like Hawley, but it will only be as an extension of white identity politics, an encouragement of "cultural Christianity" to preserve white supremacy rather than Christian values for Christian values' sake.

The religious right was a zombie that bought a few extra years of power off of AIDS and 9/11. They haven't been in sync with the majority of even the Republican Party for a while, and now they're effectively dead. Millennials are showing their age when they still think they're fighting George Bush.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2021, 04:09:03 PM »

In 2016, Trump wasn't forced to pick Pence. In fact, he was his second choice.

Wait, who was his first?
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Arachno-Statism
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2021, 05:14:34 PM »

In 2016, Trump wasn't forced to pick Pence. In fact, he was his second choice.

Wait, who was his first?

Kasich, according to journalist Robert Draper.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2021, 05:26:53 PM »

In 2016, Trump wasn't forced to pick Pence. In fact, he was his second choice.

Wait, who was his first?

Kasich, according to journalist Robert Draper.

Wow, didn't expect that.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2021, 03:28:03 PM »

I think the GOP will remain staunchly anti-abortion, even if they de-emphasize other religious social issues.

Also, Trump was still a fierce champion of the religious right, even if he himself wasn't "one of them" and he actually did serious outreach to more secular communities.

I agree though, both the evangelical and secular bases largely don't care about how religious their candidate is. They all preach similar values and both bases will eat them up.
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The Houstonian
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2021, 11:47:30 PM »

In 2016, Trump wasn't forced to pick Pence. In fact, he was his second choice.

Wait, who was his first?

Kasich, according to journalist Robert Draper.

Then both of his top-two picks were pro-life.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2021, 10:40:41 PM »

DeSantis and Trump won't win a GE, they don't appeal to AA and you need them in DTW, MI, they only appeal to Evangelicals, after 2008, they have become the minority.
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