Which competitive state will ohionized?

[Neptunium]

Ohio was very competitive back to 2012, then suddenly it vote to right of NPV up to more then ten percent, it come out not a fluke like 2008 Indiana on 2020. Which competitive state you would think would be next state which will trend like Ohio did in 2016?

[S019]

Wisconsin is a very good candidate for this

[Sir Mohamed]

FL if Hispanics continue to swing right, especially Cubans once Biden reestablishes Cuban Thaw.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

There should be a "none of the above" option

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Of the available options, Georgia will in all likelihood follow the path of Virginia and 2022 will be the last cycle it'll be truly competitive.

Wisconsin may soon vote more like NC, and eventually OH, but some posters have exaggerated it's swings.

Nevada won't snap back and vote by likely margins like it did during both Obama elections, it will either remain leaning D or move to a toss-up.

[forsythvoter]

I would say WI, but not because it's especially similar to OH. I think OH"s rightward swing is actually a product of two trends that amplify each other:

1) A huge rightward swing in Appalachian OH in SE OH
2) A huge rightward swing among densely populated rust belt towns in NE OH

WI has neither (except maybe counties like Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland which don't have that many votes), but does have a R-trending Driftless area, which casts a third of the statewide vote. If this area suddenly voted like Appalachian, WI would turn into OH. I tend to think there are some unique cultural differences that would make it voting like Appalachian unlikely but it's not impossible to imagine.

MI and PA probably have more similarities to OH but they also have big dominant metro regions that offset a lot of these trends so they are unlikely to go the way of OH under the current alignment of coalitions.

[It’s so Joever]

Michigan is the new Ohio.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Arizona wouldn’t shock me, in either direction. I think the GOP isn’t so much doomed there demographically as they’ve just turned off a bunch of their former voters.

[Hope For A New Era]

Nevada can definitely go back to voting double-digit Democrat, like Colorado currently does. Didn't Obama win the state by heavy margins?

In 2008, in exceptional circumstances. Recessions always hit Nevada very hard, because the state has built its entire economy on an industry that is the first thing people stop doing when they lose money.

[Chips]

Probably WI.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It has already happened. Ohio itself is (likely) just the new Missouri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA will go back R, unfortunately in 2022/2024 Kemp is favored in 2022

It won't be AZ that Rs hope, Sinema and Kelly are lifers

Lol Ron Johnson is DOA he won by 3.5 percent

[Skill and Chance]

Thinking NV or MI actually, depending on which way the GOP coalition goes from here.  WI and PA both have significant suburban areas trending Dem and multiple large cities to work with.  In both NV and MI, statewide Dem viability is dependent on large margins one city with a lot of legacy Dem voters that fits uneasily in the coalition.  It's easier for one of them to just fall off the map, despite the stronger performance in 2020.  I do expect WI and PA to end up Lean R, but there is a more plausible path to 55R/45D in NV and MI.  AZ seems like it will either be closely contested for a long time, like Florida 1996-2016, or end up Lean Dem but with narrow margins.

[AGA]

WI, GA, FL are the top contenders.

[Skill and Chance]

WI, GA, FL are the top contenders.

Wouldn't Miami-Dade have to be a decisive R win for Florida to have a double digit R margin?  And that assumes no continuing Dem improvement in North Florida.  I'm someone who could easily see a 6% R margin happening in Florida as soon as 2024, but it's totally unclear to me how they can get from 6% to 12%?  A couple major labor unions endorsing the R's and that could happen in NV or MI.

[Bush did 311]

The demographic trends look grim for Democrats in Florida, superficially. But it's complicated. I do think we need to see another election result to determine if the state just has a pro-incumbency bias before throwing in the towel on it though. It voted +5 for Bush in 2004 then went back to being a swing state again.

[EastwoodS]

The demographic trends look grim for Democrats in Florida, superficially. But it's complicated. I do think we need to see another election result to determine if the state just has a pro-incumbency bias before throwing in the towel on it though. It voted +5 for Bush in 2004 then went back to being a swing state again.

But it wasn’t that far to the right of the nation in 2004, that’s the problem for Democrats now vs then.

[Tekken_Guy]

Florida. The combination of rural southerners, white conservative retirees, and right-leaning Hispanic voters is a perfect storm for the GOP, if the second bloc continues to grow and the third shifts right. 2020 clearly showed that 2018 was not a fluke in Miami-Dade.

WI will be off the table once the rural areas begin voting like Ohio's or Pennsylvania's.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nevada can definitely go back to voting double-digit Democrat, like Colorado currently does. Didn't Obama win the state by heavy margins?

Nevada is the most non-professional class state out west, it is definitely not going back to that if the parties coalitions don't completely change course.

[Agonized-Statism]

Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania after a decade or so of being a bellwether.

[Samof94]

Where does NC fall in this?

[Frenchrepublican]

Wisconsin looks like the most likely one. Contrary to NV/AZ and to some extent NC it's a very white state, it's not a very urban dominated state either, contrary to MI/MN, as Milwaukee and Dane accounts for less than one quarter of the electorate, it has a lot of smaller metro areas which will probably trend even more toward the GOP (Racine, Janesville, Kenosha, Fond du Lac, Manitowoc, Marathon county), and contrary to a state like PA democrats have still a lot of ground to lose in the rural parts of the state, after all Trump got +70% in only two counties.

Florida could be a possibility but I think the state is too diverse to really shift that much to the right

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't think any state will trend that sharply in 2024 but the biggest rightward swing in the states on this list is likely to be in Florida, given the likelihood that the Republican nominee is either Trump again or Ron DeSantis (who'll get a home state boost in the event that he's nominated). Age-based polarisation deepening + boomers moving to FL + Hispanic trends could lead to a really Republican trend assuming the FL pension crisis isn't too bad/Republicans don't get the blame for it.

[Bush did 311]

Where does NC fall in this?

Probably will remain a swing state for the forseeable future. Could become the tipping point state. NC has the second largest rural population in raw #s of any state (TX is 1st, and very similar). Dems are bleeding support from rural whites at the same rate they're gaining in the cities.