What was the moment you knew Trump was going to lose the election?

[Bickle]

2018 mid-terms when a record 60+million people voted against House Republicans in the mid-terms.  That's when I fully realized Trump didn't have much support outside of the Republican base.  Independents never liked him, and with no Clinton on the ballot, they heavily voted against him and his party in 2018, and later in 2020.

[dw93]

Pre Election: When Trump made an ass of himself by holding that bible, as by then it became clear that, short of cheating (which he tried to do in the end), Trump had no ace up his sleeve to win. It was abundantly clear at that point that he botched the COVID response, which if done right could've gotten him a 2nd term, and the "law and order" campaign he was trying to run wasn't getting any traction.

Post election: The morning after when WI was declared for Biden and NV and AZ were still holding for Biden. It was at that point that I knew MI was gonna flip to, giving Biden what he needed to win even if GA and PA went Trump. That said, fears of Trump successfully pressuring Republican state legislatures and Governors to overturn the results in enough key states stayed in my mind until about the middle or end of November.

[Pollster]

When I saw that Biden was on track to win/barely lose Pinellas despite Trump winning Florida quite handily, New Hampshire not being particularly close, and the Democrats cracking 60% in Loudoun County.

[Motorcity]

When Biden took the lead in WI and MI

Not going to lie, the previous few hours before that were some of the most stressful of my life

[kwabbit]

When the batch of votes from Milwaukee county that put Biden ahead in WI came in. Before that, a repeat of 2016 seemed to be happening. Trump looked like he was going to squeak out another victory and shock everyone once again, but that possibility was quashed once Biden took the lead in Wisconsin.

[Bomster]

When Biden pulled ahead in Pennsylvania.

[Motorcity]

When the batch of votes from Milwaukee county that put Biden ahead in WI came in. Before that, a repeat of 2016 seemed to be happening. Trump looked like he was going to squeak out another victory and shock everyone once again, but that possibility was quashed once Biden took the lead in Wisconsin.

Yeah, Biden leading in WI, MI, AZ, NV and NE 2 made it clear he was going to win

[tallguy23]

This

Before the election: when Trump got Covid and started tweeting all kinds of random crap from Walter Reed. After the election: Wednesday afternoon when Trump’s lead began shrinking in the important states. I knew then it was only a matter of time.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Wednesday morning/afternoon, like everyone else is saying. Although it still didn't quite sink in for a bit longer, and the thought of "what if he barely falls short in PA" stayed in my mind until he actually pulled ahead.

[Mr. Smith]

Around midnight when AZ was called.

[Typhoon2000]

When it looked pretty good for Biden in Arizona and when Biden officially got Wisconsin and Michigan.

[sting in the rafters]

The moment the mail-in ballots from Milwaukee came in to give Biden the lead in Wisconsin. As soon as that happened, I knew his victory in Michigan/Pennsylvania was assured. Of the 3 Rust Belt swing states, Wisconsin has the highest-percentage of working-class whites at ~60% of the voting-age population. This is compared to 56% of Michigan's, and 54% in PA. Furthermore, only 6% of the voting-age population in Wisconsin is black, compared to 10% in PA and 14% in Michigan.


I have to say, I was worried over Tuesday night as the vote totals from Iowa and Ohio showed Trump had retained his strength among working-class white voters. It makes sense that his law-and-order rhetoric and emphasis on the economy resonated with white conservatives. Indeed, the traditionally Democratic-leaning blue-collar Driftless Area in Iowa/Wisconsin which flipped for Trump in 2016 stuck with him in 2020. It remains to be seen whether this effect remains with Trump off the ballot as Tony Evers won the Driftless Area in the 2018 gubernatorial race. In addition, he kept his gains in Kenosha County (another traditionally Democratic working-class county), the site of the Jacob Blake shooting and protests.



The counter was Biden did extremely well with suburban voters due to his track record as a competent government official, stance on COVID, support for criminal justice reform, and the all-important quality of not being Donald Trump. He ran up the score in the Madison Metro, cut the margin in the affluent suburbs of Milwaukee, and held the line elsewhere.


Once those mail-in ballots from Milwaukee came in, I knew it was over. If Trump couldn't win in Wisconsin, the state with the most favorable demographics to him of the 3 Rust Belt swing states, then it was a foregone conclusion the pattern would repeat itself in MI/PA. Indeed, Biden won Pennsylania by 80,000 votes due to his strong margins in the socially liberal counties of suburban Philadelphia. He similarly expanded his margins in Oakland, Washtenaw, and Ingham county Michigan, the latter two home to UM and MSU respectively.




The popular question going into the 2020 election was could Biden win back enough of the white-working class? The answer is he did,though barely. The fact that he held the line in rural areas instead of Trump expanding his margins from 2016 was an achievement in of itself.
And if Trump couldn't win the Rust Belt swing state that had the highest% of white conservatives in its population, then it logically stood he would lose in the other two.



Tl;dr: The presidential election was over when Biden won Wisconsin. If his coalition of college-educated whites, black voters, and young voters was enough to win Wisconsin, it follows it would be enough to win PA/MI.

[Figueira]

I think when Michigan was called I was pretty convinced it was over.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

When I checked the election map and Texas hadn’t been called over an hour after poll closing. Trump was leading in all the swing states but I knew just from looking at the 10% leads he had that they weren’t real.

The final piece of evidence was that Biden already led the popular vote at that time, in contrast to 2016 where Trump led the popular vote count until California got further into their count. This pointed to a bigger popular vote margin for Biden and consequently I knew Trump wouldn’t be holding onto PA/WI/MI. Biden’s six point margin in bellwether Peoria County, which counted its ballots quickly, confirmed that even more.

[Non Swing Voter]

For me there were two big moments.

The first was the Tulsa rally, believe it or not. I saw how many tickets were sold to that thing, and kinda got sucked into the "he's still popular because of the economy" hype, and figured people really would show up. But he got trolled, hardly anybody was there, and it just compounded what was already a bad few months because of COVID. This is where I initially felt he was in trouble.

The second would be the first debate. I think after that, even people who even marginally pay attention to politics or the news realized what a buffoon he was, and I even heard people at my job who tend to lean right talk about what a jackass he looked like up there. I think that really turned a lot of people off who would have otherwise voted for him.

Yeah I agree with this, both of these points on the campaign were fairly clarifying about the dynamic of the race.  I'd also add when Trump got flown to the hospital with covid while people were actively voting.  You could just tell his campaign was unraveling and that Democrats were using the opportunity to bank enough early votes to win.

[Da2017]

The moment covid happened and his botched up response. Coming down with covid was nail in the coffin.

[mileslunn]

After Biden pulled ahead in Wisconsin.  Up until then I was quite nervous after seeing Trump win Ohio by similar margins to 2016, Florida by larger.  Yes Minnesota and New Hampshire on election night were more decisive and he flipped Nebraska 2nd.  Arizona being called looked good at first but as drop off mail in ballots started being counted then I got worried it might have been called prematurely (and I think it was considering how close).

Still even after Biden won Wisconsin and Michigan, I felt he was heavily favoured but still a bit nervous.  By Thursday morning, I knew Biden won as even though Trump was still leading in Pennsylvania, simple calculations based on ballots left to count and how Biden was doing on mail in ballots made it clear he was going to win Pennsylvania.  Georgia looked likely, but at least I still thought Trump had a chance but odds against him.  Once Biden pulled ahead in both Pennsylvania and Georgia then it was off course over.

[KaiserDave]

A combination of MN, NH, and Arizona all being called early. I was only certain beyond the shadow of a doubt really however when Biden took his first lead in Pennsylvania.

[QAnonKelly]

Somewhere between telling people to drink bleach and the church induced late last spring.

[DaleCooper]

I think he started getting scared pretty early in the pandemic, maybe around April or May, but I don't think he ever "knew" it was going to happen. And by that I mean, I don't think he ever prepared himself for the possibility. If he believed he was going to lose, I don't think he'd have subjected himself to the embarrassment of hosting a watch party on election night.