What was the moment you knew Trump was going to lose the election?

[BigVic]

Mine's was when during the George Floyd protests when he held the bible at St. John's Church plus his COVID-19 response.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

When WI was called for Biden, I knew it was over. I always maintained that MI/PA will vote to the left of WI, and AZ looked good for Biden too.

[Bojack Horseman]

Before the election: when Trump got Covid and started tweeting all kinds of random crap from Walter Reed. After the election: Wednesday afternoon when Trump’s lead began shrinking in the important states. I knew then it was only a matter of time.

[BaldEagle1991]

All of the mishandling of the pandemic when it came in March/April.

[here2view]

When Fox News declared Biden the winner in Arizona at around 11:30 PM. I went to bed with him up 238—213, and I expected him to get Nevada (244) Michigan (260) and Wisconsin (270). PA and GA weren't even necessary.

[redjohn]

When MN, NH, VA, and CO were all called very early I knew it wasn't a redux of 2016. Despite evidence that polls in FL were way off early on election night, Biden easily winning states that Clinton seemingly struggled to win in 2016 showed there were national shifts.

When that giant batch of votes came in from Maricopa on election night showing Biden up big in AZ, though, it seemed inevitable he would win. He'd already won all the states Clinton won by over 3% in 2016, and it was pretty much impossible he'd manage to do better in all those states and simultaneously not pick up two additional battleground states to get to 270.

[EJ24]

For me there were two big moments.

The first was the Tulsa rally, believe it or not. I saw how many tickets were sold to that thing, and kinda got sucked into the "he's still popular because of the economy" hype, and figured people really would show up. But he got trolled, hardly anybody was there, and it just compounded what was already a bad few months because of COVID. This is where I initially felt he was in trouble.

The second would be the first debate. I think after that, even people who even marginally pay attention to politics or the news realized what a buffoon he was, and I even heard people at my job who tend to lean right talk about what a jackass he looked like up there. I think that really turned a lot of people off who would have otherwise voted for him.

[Chips]

When it seemed clear on the morning of November 4th that there would be enough mail in votes from WI, MI and PA to overcome Trump's leads in all three.

[Mexican Wolf]

When Wisconsin and Michigan were called for Biden and he was leading in Nevada and Arizona. Trump voters were still trying to "stop the count" in PA and Georgia, but even if both states went to Trump, he still would've lost because Biden was leading in Nevada and Arizona and those states put him at 270.

[Senator-elect Spark]

When he caught COVID I had some bad feelings about his chances and definitely after I thought Pence seemingly lost the VP debate to Harris.

[brucejoel99]

In general, 2:29am on Nov. 9th, 2016. Seriously, I thought he'd lose re-election ever since the day he was elected. Really, the only time during his presidency that I ever seriously feared a win being potentially possible was when his approval rating started approaching ~50% at the beginning of COVID, but then he immediately started f**king things up & failed to garner any more of a rally 'round the flag effect - unlike basically every other world leader - so my fear soon subsided.

In particular, whatever time it was on Nov. 4th when the remaining number of outstanding vote-by-mail ballots in the remaining states - combined with the rate at which they were going for Biden - made it crystal-clear beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was no coming back for Trump this time.

[AGA]

When Lackawanna County, PA results were fully in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Once Wisconsin was called it was pretty obvious (combined with the pattern of returns in GA and PA and AZ already being called by some outlets) that there was no path forward for Trump.

[Hope For A New Era]

There wasn't really a moment. I always thought he was likely to lose, ever since 2016. In January and February 2020 I was actually getting worried - it looked like he was getting stronger - but the pandemic brought him back down again. By May I was very confident in a Biden victory.

And then election night came, and it was hours of misery. It looked like another 2016. It was terrifying. I became confident of Biden's victory again on November 6, early in the morning.

[Drew]

I pretty much knew at about mid-morning Wednesday when Biden was leading in WI, MI, and AZ.  The low point in my confidence was Tuesday evening when the Miami-Dade result came in, scaring me bleepless.

[BlueSwan]

I wasn't like TRULY sure until friday morning (nov 6th) danish time, which would have been thursday night american time. I woke up, checked the numbers for Pennsylvania and became absolutely certain that Biden would soon overtake Trump in PA and that would be game for sure regardless of what happened elsewhere. I was so sure that at the teachers lounge at work, I took the word that morning to announce that Biden would soon surpass Trump in PA and hence become president. Would have been awfully embarrassing if I had been wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was always the underdog, he represents the old Economy where if you own stocks, you were rich, D's represent the new Covid Economy that's why we will win the next several Elections

[MasstoVA17]

I was fearing a 2016 redux until after midnight on election night when I saw the margins in Minnesota and NE-2. I figured that if Biden was performing that well in the Midwest, he had to have the votes in at least MI and WI to pull this off.

Was close to certain by late afternoon on Nov 4th when WI was called and Biden pulled into the lead in MI, and Fox News/AP were holding steady on their AZ call.

[pbrower2a]

I "knew" that he was going to lose the election when he bungled the response to COVID-19 while his approval numbers were already poor. That was premature. What happened was that his approval and disapproval were fairly stable, and what was happening was those who already despised him despised him even more while his approval numbers were steady. I did not realize the tricks that he had up his sleeve.

I wasn't so sure on Election Night as Trump got numbers that offset early Biden leads in Ohio and Texas and that he had early leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. I saw patterns that showed that the votes remaining would be enough to defeat Trump. Paradoxically in some states the early votes got counted last, and those leaned heavily D.   

[2952-0-0]

I woke up at about 6 AM on Wednesday to the news that Biden had taken the lead in Wisconsin. There was chatter here that the same was about to occur in Michigan in the morning. At that point, I was >99% sure of the outcome. It didn't stop me from obsessing over the doomers here.

It still took me almost a week for the fact to fully sink in, though.

[TML]

During the campaign, Trump’s lack of professionalism in handling the pandemic and social unrest made Biden the favorite. On Election Night, I was initially very uneasy with the early returns from FL, GA, and NC, but by the next morning, it became apparent that Biden was on track to retaking the three main upper midwestern states based on how absentee ballots were playing out. However, at that point I thought the final result would be Biden 290 - Trump 248, with only Georgia going differently than I had expected.

[Orser67]

I thought he was the underdog from the day he won the 2016 election, and I thought it was pretty clear that he was going to lose by the time I went to sleep on the night after the 2020 election, but I didn't know for sure until probably the Friday after the election. And even then, I was a little worried that some BS would be pulled either in the Electoral College or in Congress.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When the Covid briefings kept going off the rails and Trump kept embarrassing himself in the management of the crisis, as that indicated clearly to me that he was going to have problems already but now with the mismanaged crisis is was likely to be a death knell.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wednesday morning, when Biden had taken the lead in WI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I felt he was an underdog heading into election night, but by the time WI and MI were called Wednesday, Trump's path completely fell into the abyss.