2030 Electoral Map (user search)
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  2030 Electoral Map (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2030 Electoral Map  (Read 21774 times)
jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« on: July 26, 2006, 12:45:30 PM »
« edited: July 26, 2006, 02:30:33 PM by Senator jerusalemcar5 »

Reignman notfied me this is a more appropriate place for this topic, so I am putting it here:

There's a lot of dicussion over which areas of the country Democrats and Republicans shoyuld focus on if they wan tto win presidential elections.  Well I drew up a map based on US Census projections for 2030.

I then drew up a 2032 presidential electoral map (now with muon2's help).  Also, I'd like to debate which area of the country is most important to really focus on for the parties:



So do we focus out west, the Atlantic South, or somewhere else?  Will the Atlantic South naturally trend Democratic as it becomes more urban and cosmopolitan?

Blue=Gain from 2000

Red=Lose from 2000

(THANKS MUON!)

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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2006, 01:40:35 PM »

With the updated map I think the parties should definitely go after Texas and Florida.  These states will be huge and both will have the population demographics that could help either party.  They will be gainings about 17 electors over the next few censuses so contorlling them will be key.
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jerusalemcar5
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,731
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -8.35

« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2006, 12:42:41 AM »

Supersoulty has the right idea. There are two huge problems with forecasts to 2030. One is that the census can project current trends, but can't anticipate new trends very well. Changes in immigration patterns as well as relocation patterens are likely to shift as they have with each generation. I'm comfortable looking at 2010, but my confidence drops a lot when I'm dealing with voters who aren't yet born.

The second factor is in the parties themselves. 2032 is 28 years from the last presidential election. 28 years before 2004 was 1976 (my first chance to vote Smiley ). Both elections were decided with the winner holding under 300 EV -- they're close. Compare the maps of those two elections and there are 24 states that voted differently. That's almost half. The South and Pacific Coast, and northern New England flipped. IL and MI were in the GOP camp in 1976. It's an even bet that another shift will occur sometime in the next 28 years.

I agree with distant population predicitions to be weak, but I disagree with your party analysis.  The parties switched ideologies after 100 years sticking with on ideology.  1976 was a year when the change was still underway and so the election played out oddly with people voting Republic or Democrat for opposing reasons.  I believe the current ideologies are here to stay for a long time.
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