KERRY CLAIMS VICTORY

[sgpine]

Even if Dean does become the eventual winner Iowa has sent a strong message to his campaign. He must take what he says seriously and not just use outrageous remarks and statements to get atention. At first what got him up to the top has actually begun to hurt him. I am anxiously waiting for the next couple of weeks to see what the big picture will look like.

Judging by last night's crazy speech, he has missed the memo.

I've been supporting Dean since last Spring, but I have to agree with you. I still very much like Dean's stance on the issues, as well as the type of grassroots insurgancy that he stands for, and I also feel that the media has been unduly critical of him for the most part, but that speech very much turned me off.

That speech may very well cost Dean NH, in fact, the odds of him finishing outside of the top 3 seem pretty good now.

Its a shame, but it appears Dean just wasn't ready for prime time.
 

[Nation]

You all are taking that speech way too far. I have more respect for voters that they'll decide their candidate based on something other then their personality during a speech. Am I the only one who thinks this way? :-/

[NHPolitico]

You all are taking that speech way too far. I have more respect for voters that they'll decide their candidate based on something other then their personality during a speech. Am I the only one who thinks this way? :-/

Yes.

When every TV and radio talk show talks about what a crazy person you appear to be, you're toast. Just slap the pat of butter on your back.

Voters vote on personality. Ask John Edwards who went from zero to hero on the strength of his political personality. State of mind is a character issue to voters.  No one wants an unbalanced person as President. That's a bipartisan issue.

[Michael Z]

You all are taking that speech way too far. I have more respect for voters that they'll decide their candidate based on something other then their personality during a speech. Am I the only one who thinks this way? :-/

I agree with your basic point, but in all fairness, that speech was one of the most bizarre and juvenile I've ever witnessed. It was almost as bad as Iain Duncan Smith's party conference speech last year (which was so bad the UK's Conservative Party sacked him as their leader).

Howard Dean should have done the decent thing, congratulated Kerry on his victory (to do otherwise is simply bad manners), and maybe say a few words about taking the fight to New Hampshire. Not jump about, shout incoherently, and generally make an embarrassment of himself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm delighted with Edwards strong performance in Iowa. 32% is more than I had thought he would get
Well done to Kerry, goodbye Gephardt and Dean... what were you thinking?

[Nation]

We'll see.  Dean will win New Hampshire, mark my words.

[Gustaf]

I'm delighted with Edwards strong performance in Iowa. 32% is more than I had thought he would get
Well done to Kerry, goodbye Gephardt and Dean... what were you thinking?

So am I! The real schocker is that Dean and Gephardt did so poorly. Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

[Nym90]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

[Gustaf]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

Do you think Edwards is out if he finishes 4th? Or that Clark is if he finishes 3rd? Otherwise, all four (Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Clark) could remain in the running at least for the Feb 3rd primaries.

[NHPolitico]

I'm delighted with Edwards strong performance in Iowa. 32% is more than I had thought he would get
Well done to Kerry, goodbye Gephardt and Dean... what were you thinking?

I didn't really follow Edwards' campaign. He hasn't really run ads here. If he's run a positive campaign, then good for him for his success.

[NHPolitico]

We'll see.  Dean will win New Hampshire, mark my words.

New Hampshire is a much more volatile state than Iowa.  That's good and bad. Dean has an opportunity to reinvent himself.  He should have started last night, but didn't. He's running out of time. If not, the volatility will swamp his boat. I think Gary Hart came out of nowhere to win.  McCain's was a late surge, but it wasn't a big surprise.

[NHPolitico]

Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

He has to win solidly. A narrow win won't cut it, IMO.

[Gustaf]

Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

He has to win solidly. A narrow win won't cut it, IMO.

That depends on how the polls turn-out. If it looks like he's done and he still manages to come through in the end, it might get spun as a come-back and save his campaign. But I agree that he really needs a solid win.

[NHPolitico]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

I like the comment I heard that this was a back to the future event.  We're right where we were at the start of the campaign after the 2002 midterms.  Kerry was the frontrunner and Edwards was the second coming of John F. Kennedy and Clinton.

[NHPolitico]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

Do you think Edwards is out if he finishes 4th? Or that Clark is if he finishes 3rd? Otherwise, all four (Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Clark) could remain in the running at least for the Feb 3rd primaries.

It depends on what kind of 4th place finish he scores. I still think he'll stay in until SC regardless.  A 4th place finish just makes it tougher to win SC.  If he can come in 4th and still win SC, I think he's fine.

[Gustaf]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

Do you think Edwards is out if he finishes 4th? Or that Clark is if he finishes 3rd? Otherwise, all four (Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Clark) could remain in the running at least for the Feb 3rd primaries.

It depends on what kind of 4th place finish he scores. I still think he'll stay in until SC regardless.  A 4th place finish just makes it tougher to win SC.  If he can come in 4th and still win SC, I think he's fine.

The most recent poll I've seen shows Edwards at 8%, 11% behind Clark, so getting a better result than 4th will be hard for him.

[NHPolitico]

Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

He has to win solidly. A narrow win won't cut it, IMO.

That depends on how the polls turn-out. If it looks like he's done and he still manages to come through in the end, it might get spun as a come-back and save his campaign. But I agree that he really needs a solid win.

I don't get that feeling. Dean was leading by 30 points at one point for crying out loud. A narrow 2 or 3 point win over Kerry couldn't be spun as a big win for Dean.  At least Kerry can say that he has shown that he can be a player in the midwest and the northeast if he comes in a close second in NH after a first place win in Iowa.

[NHPolitico]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

Do you think Edwards is out if he finishes 4th? Or that Clark is if he finishes 3rd? Otherwise, all four (Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Clark) could remain in the running at least for the Feb 3rd primaries.

It depends on what kind of 4th place finish he scores. I still think he'll stay in until SC regardless.  A 4th place finish just makes it tougher to win SC.  If he can come in 4th and still win SC, I think he's fine.

The most recent poll I've seen shows Edwards at 8%, 11% behind Clark, so getting a better result than 4th will be hard for him.

Things can change very quickly because of the high undecideds in the Dem party and the large number of undeclareds that will show up.  If Edwards can get up on TV and radio now in a real way, he can change those numbers fast.

[Gustaf]

Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

He has to win solidly. A narrow win won't cut it, IMO.

That depends on how the polls turn-out. If it looks like he's done and he still manages to come through in the end, it might get spun as a come-back and save his campaign. But I agree that he really needs a solid win.

I don't get that feeling. Dean was leading by 30 points at one point for crying out loud. A narrow 2 or 3 point win over Kerry couldn't be spun as a big win for Dean.  At least Kerry can say that he has shown that he can be a player in the midwest and the northeast if he comes in a close second in NH after a first place win in Iowa.

I hope you're right, b/c Dean will not win solidly. Kerry is onle behind by 8% or so, and that's before the Iowa results came into play. Dean will probably go down even more.  

[NHPolitico]

Wow, what a race...all of a sudden Kerry and Edwards, both of whom had been given up on and left for dead, are major contenders. I really like Edwards a lot...I think he would be the strongest candidate against Bush. He would be the most difficult for Karl Rove to run against. He's got an optimistic message, and is from the South, and is a moderate Democrat. All along they were planning on running against an angry northeastern liberal, but with Edwards Bush's task is a bit more difficult.

Dean has to win New Hampshire in order to remain a viable contender. Everybody else has to finish at least 3rd...I think after New Hampshire the race will be down to 3 major candidates left.

Do you think Edwards is out if he finishes 4th? Or that Clark is if he finishes 3rd? Otherwise, all four (Dean, Edwards, Kerry and Clark) could remain in the running at least for the Feb 3rd primaries.

It depends on what kind of 4th place finish he scores. I still think he'll stay in until SC regardless.  A 4th place finish just makes it tougher to win SC.  If he can come in 4th and still win SC, I think he's fine.

The most recent poll I've seen shows Edwards at 8%, 11% behind Clark, so getting a better result than 4th will be hard for him.

And we've forgotten about the big debate Thursday night.  That could change things, too.  Those poll numbers are very fluid.

[NHPolitico]

Dean has to win New Hampshire, or he's done.

He has to win solidly. A narrow win won't cut it, IMO.

That depends on how the polls turn-out. If it looks like he's done and he still manages to come through in the end, it might get spun as a come-back and save his campaign. But I agree that he really needs a solid win.

I don't get that feeling. Dean was leading by 30 points at one point for crying out loud. A narrow 2 or 3 point win over Kerry couldn't be spun as a big win for Dean.  At least Kerry can say that he has shown that he can be a player in the midwest and the northeast if he comes in a close second in NH after a first place win in Iowa.

I hope you're right, b/c Dean will not win solidly. Kerry is onle behind by 8% or so, and that's before the Iowa results came into play. Dean will probably go down even more.  

It will take a day or two for the real bounce to show up in the polls. The bounce includes a surge in money for ads, too.

[NHPolitico]

Put this in the win column for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). Didn't I say a few weeks ago that Kerry was going to surge and you all laughed at me? Turn to page 4 of the posts and in 2nd place, and youll see. This this boost Kerry in NH, and finally Gephardt is dropping out and hopefully he'll endorse Kerry like I think.

I wonder if Jim Rassmann will help out Kerry in NH, too.  We like vets here.

[MAS117]

NHpolitico, instead of puttting like 10 posts in a row, why dont u just modify them. no offense or anything but its kinda annoying, sry

[NHPolitico]

NHpolitico, instead of puttting like 10 posts in a row, why dont u just modify them. no offense or anything but its kinda annoying, sry

I'm not usually replying to the same posts.

[Gustaf]

NHpolitico, instead of puttting like 10 posts in a row, why dont u just modify them. no offense or anything but its kinda annoying, sry

Sorry, NH, have to agree there. It does get kind of annoying. Maybe you could read some posts, and then include your responses to them in one post.