Why did Iowa's growth stalled?

[jimrtex]

Back in the 1890s and 1900s, Iowa was the 10th most populous state (It had the same population as Indiana and Michigan at that point!). It had more people than Wisconsin or Minnesota. Thereafter, it's growth seemingly was put to a halt and it's population was stable ranging around 2.5-3.1 million from 1940s to present.

There used to be a belief that the rain would follow the plow. Farmers would settle an area, and the plowed earth would attract rain. This doesn't work in western Iowa. But anyhow by around 1900, Iowa had filled up. It takes a certain amount of acreage to farm. This increases as you move beyond subsistence. You might be able to grow enough food to feed your family, but not pay for a tractor, or truck, or television, or materials for your house and barn, nor enough left over to support a school for your children, or roads to get your crops to market.

Any children beyond two, are going to have to homestead in Nebraska or the Dakotas. Being flatter and prairie lands, Iowa did not have the hydro-power for mills, and Ohio had a fifty-year head start. Iowa may have been handicapped by being developed concurrently with rail. There was less need for towns - loading docks at the railroad station were sufficient for supplies. So there were less opportunity for tinkerers who might develop small factories that would grow into large factories that could supply jobs for masses of workers.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are less well suited for agriculture than Iowa. Further north, they have shorter growing seasons, and in areas with glacial till they are less suitable for farming. Forested areas require a lot of work before they can be farmed.

[jimrtex]

In 1840, the last Census before statehood, Iowa had 43K. By 1850 it had 192K.

During the 1850's Iowa increased by 482K, to a total of 674K, more tahn tripling in population. The largest counties were all on the Mississippi River: Dubuque, Lee, Scott, and Clayton.

Counties over 10K were everything from Winneshiek to Van Buren and counties to the east, with the exception of Buchanan, plus the three southern tiers as far west as Appanoose, Wapello, and Warren. Warren provided a connection to Polk - Des Moines became the state capital in 1853. Notably not reached by 1860 was Black Hawk (Waterloo).

By 1870, 520K had been added with the population reaching 1.194M. This was the largest numerical gain in Iowa history, despite settlement being stalled during the Civil War, the first half of the decade.

10K counties was as far west (by tier): Decatur, Lucas, Madison, Dallas, Boone, Black Hawk, Bremer, Floyd, and Winneshiek. The narrower tiers, the 2nd from the south and the most northern are somewhat disadvantaged since they might be as densely settled, but have a smaller population due to their smaller area.

Outliers include Hardin (Grundy had not reached 10K); Webster (Fort Dodge); Pottawattamie (Council Bluffs); and Fremont (extreme southwestern corner). I assume this was because it was on the Missouri River. It has never developed any cities. Shenadoah is on the eastern county line, but in Page County.

The most populous counties were Dubuque, Lee, Clinton, and Linn. Linn (Cedar Rapids) is the first interior county to make the list.

By 1880, another 424K were added and the total reached 1.624M.

The southern five tiers were complete above 10K with the exception of Guthrie, Audubon, and Monona. But the four northern tier had only advanced to Webster, Franklin, Cerro Gordo, and Mitchell. Woodbury (Sioux City) on the Missouri River also reached this threshold. A typical county once it reached 15K or so was to add a few thousands more, perhaps due to expanding families, or taking up of less arable land that been picked over.

Largest counties were Dubuque, Polk, Scott, Pottawattamie, Linn, Clinton, Lee, and Des Moines. These 8 were bunched from 33K to 43K. You have 5 Mississippi River counties, 1 Missouri River, and Linn (Cedar Rapids), and Polk (Des Moines). The latter two are of course located on the Cedar and Des Moines rivers.

By 1890, 288K had been added, fewer than the previous 3 decades, but Iowa had reached 1.912M and was 10th most populous state. All but 11 counties had reached 10K, all in the three northern tiers: 1N: Worth, Winnebago, Emmet, Dickinson, Osceola, and Lyon; 2N: Hancock, Palo Alto, Clay; and 3N: Humboldt and Pocahontas.

The largest counties were: Polk (Des Moines), Woodbury (Sioux City), Dubuque (Dubuque), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Pottawattamie (Council Bluffs), Scott (Davenport), Clinton (Clinton), Lee (Fort Madison-Keokuk), and Des Moines (Burlington). Only the first five had any sort of dynamic growth. The four lesser counties associated with river crossings had less growth, perhaps just that from natural population increase.

By 1900, 319K had been added, and Iowa reached 2.231M. All counties but Osceola, Dickinson, and Emmet had all reached 10K. These three counties, smaller than average because they are the northernmost tier adjacent to Minnesota did eventually reach 10K in 1920.

Counties with more than 35K in 1900 were:

82K Polk +26% (Des Moines)
56K Dubuque +13% (Dubuque)
55K Linn +22% (Cedar Rapids)
54K Woodbury -2% (Sioux City)
64K Pottawattamie +15% (Council Bluffs)
51K Scott +19% (Davenport)
44K Clinton +6% (Clinton)
40K Lee +5% (Fort Madison, Keokuk)
36K Des Moines +2% (Burlington)
35K Wapello +16% (Ottumwa)

Statewide growth was 17%, so only 3 urban centers were keeping pace with the state. Several of the river crossing had quite paltry growth, and they have failed to capitalize on their location. They would have had railroad jobs in switch yards, particularly if shipping was more piecemeal, or if load limits required smaller trains across the bridges. Conversion from coal to diesel, and more unit trains, would reduce the need for trainmen. Burlington would be unknown now if it had not found its way to be the 'B' in BNSF.

Omissions from a modern perspective are Black Hawk (Waterloo, a late bloomer); Johnson (Iowa City, U. of Iowa); and Story (Ames, ISU).

[jimrtex]

The counties in red reached their maximum population in 1900.



Some had gradual decline, others have had greater declines over time. The main difference is whether they had a small town or not. Over time the farm population has moved into town, so now the town might have more than half the county population. Iowa developed concurrently with the railroads. The railroad made it possible for farm products to be shipped back east (i.e. Chicago) and supplies to be shipped to the farmers. This had the effect of concentrating population around train depots.

Those which reached their largest population in 1900 are in agricultural areas, particularly in southwest and northeast Iowa. Iowa generally developed east to west and south to north. The agricultural areas in the northwest were still being filled in in 1900, either with new homesteaders taking the remaining, less favorable land, or expanding families of first generation homesteaders.

In 1900, the largest cities in Iowa were:

Des Moines 62K
Dubuque 36K
Davenport 35K
Sioux City 33K
Council Bluffs 26K
Cedar Rapids 26K
Burlington 23K
Clinton 23K
Ottumwa 18K
Keokuk 14K
Muscatine 14K
Waterloo 13K
Fort Dodge 12K
Marshalltown 12K
Fort Madison 9K
Oskaloosa 9K
Boone 9K
Spencer 8K
Iowa City 8K
Creston 8K
Mason City 7K
Cedar Falls 5K
Centerville 5K
Oelwein 5K
Atlantic 5K

Place of Birth:

IA 1318K
IL 142K
de 123K
OH 88K
NY 58K
PA 54K
IN 48K
WI 46K
MO 34K
se 30K
ie 28K
no 26K
gb(en) 21K
NE 20K
dk 17K
KS 13K
MN 13K
cz(boh) 11K
MI 11K

[jimrtex]

My great grandparents arrived in Madison County around 1870 or so. I notice it had about 14K then, about the same population it had in 2000. It's peak population was about 18,000 in 1900, and its low was about 11,500 in 1970. In the 2020 census it will be around 16,500, still under its peak population. Winterset, the county seat, is another story. It's population in 1870 was around 1,500, or about 11% of the county's population. In 2020, it will be around 5,500 (an historic high), or about a third of the county's population.

Other than that the county is beginning to grow again a bit, unlike most smaller rural counties in Iowa, due to its proximity to Des Moines, I assume that the increase in the percentage of a county's population that is in the county seat is typical in Iowa. Heck, on the now much bigger farms than back when in Madison County, it is not all that common to see even a farm house on it. Much of the outside the county seat population is in relatively fancy homes with acreage that is for its scenic beauty and not crops. Some I know are owned by upper middle class retirees, who made their money elsewhere, and returned home, or like the ambiance of the place, which is very indeed very scenic with considerably topography (rather than a flat featureless plain), with a cute county seat. Some of these gentry, and some of the resident professionals, meet every Friday morning in the local diner on the town square to shoot the breeze. About half are liberals, and half conservatives, although this was in the pre Trump era. The educational divide and partisan preferences is I think the dominant factor these days in that hood.

My reputation in town among those who live off farming is that "gay rich Hollywood lawyer" who will never sell the land. I don't think they mean that  as a compliment.  Just a surmise on my part. Adding to my "charisma" is that I got busted for possession for pot there (that is a whole other story). A few months later, the police chief wanted to buy this little house on a bluff over the Middle River (awesome place where I would have lived myself after very substantial renovations), if I wanted to spend much time there, but alas I do not). I told him that if I sold to him, one condition would be that he was never, ever again to mess with my stash. He laughed.

Oh, one other thing. Most of the lawyers in town don't like me much either, and the feeling is mutual. I find most of them terminally obtuse and incompetent. Sad!

Even with my bum heart, I love every day of my life. There is always another adventure out there in store for me, and more stories for me to file away, and bore people with later. 

Oddly, Madison, Warren, Marion dropped in population in 1890. Adair and Dallas were still filling in, so they continued to increase. The first three rebounded in 1900 to reach a peak.  Several counties around Polk have rebounded based on being close to Des Moines, this is particularly true of Dallas, but is also true of Warren, and even Jasper. If you have an interstate it is an easy commute from up to perhaps 50 miles, as long as we aren't talking white-out blizzard. Madison might reach a new all-time high in 2030, 130 years after the previous high.

Madison has greatly benefited from the way I-35 jogs around Des Moines, as it begins to angle off toward Kansas City. The old highway south from Des Moines went through Indianola, and wasn't really going anywhere (Columbia, Little Rock, Lafayette) is not going to be a major route. I-35 is right on the Madison-Warren line

[jimrtex]

I have fairly deep roots in IA - my father's family is from the Cedar Rapids area and I spent two years of my youth living in Des Moines. The stalled growth doesn't seem to be related to industry. IA has maintained significant facilities in food production and distribution, heavy manufacturing (John Deere makes its tractors in Waterloo/Cedar Falls), and even aerospace (Collins, formerly Rockwell, employs almost 10 K in Cedar Rapids). Newton IA lost the Maytag plant, but now hosts wind turbine manufacturing that employs about as many people. Des Moines has long had a good share of insurance firms with major offices.

What I think is missing is that neither Des Moines nor Cedar Rapids became a major transportation hub for Midwestern agribusiness. Those roles fell to Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Omaha. It seems that a junction between railroads and a major river or Great Lake was necessary. Davenport and the Quad Cities might have fit the bill, but historically the main rail lines crossed the Mississippi north of the Quad Cities at Clinton or to the south at Burlington. Even today the Amtrak stop for Des Moines is in Osceola, 40 miles to the south.

How much Czech (Bohemian) culture is there in Cedar Rapids? I was noticing in the 1900 Census there was a bit of a cluster in Linn, Johnson, and Tama counties? Kolaches? Runzas?

This map suggests that Davenport-Rock Island was sort of a mini-hub for Iowa, but the CRIP never reached the Pacific, even though the bridge between Rock Island and Davenport was the first over the Mississippi.

https://tile.loc.gov/image-services/iiif/service:gmd:gmd415:g4151:g4151p:rr002190/full/pct:12.5/0/default.jpg

Amtrak likely selected the BNSF (CBQ) route across Iowa since they want the train to go through the Rockies (the westbound train leaves Denver in the AM so it is daylight). If efficiency were an issue, I'd take the UP route and make the Des Moines stop in Ames.

Incidentally, I-80 from Chicago to San Francisco is 20 hours faster (30h45m vs 51h05m) and about 10% shorter (2127 mi v. 2440 mil) than the train.

When a hyperloop is built from San Francisco to New York, would it use a great-circle route at 0 elevation? It happens that Chicago is quite close to the SF-NYC great circle, so it could be connected by a vertical shaft of around 600 feet.

[jimrtex]

Yes, the rather sharp population decline in percentage terms in the 1880's is puzzling. I don't know what happened and googling around has not revealed the answer. It may be that in the 1880's the farm development had been maxed out, but cheaper rail rates and high corn prices caused a temporary bubble during the 1890's that caused the temporary spike up in the census of 1900.

I know that the farm price parity point for ag subsidies was around 1900, and that by inference my great grandparents must have made good money off their farm in the 1890's, because they retired to town in 1906, having bought more upland acreage that included the historic home to which they retired, and hired others to work the land from there on out. So it must have been a very prosperous time for farming.

Iowa declined in population between 1900 and 1910. 71 of 99 counties had a decline. This was the beginning of the population stabilization that the OP noted. Looking through the 1910 Census reports, I haven't yet found a good explanation. There was one suggestion that farmers had emigrated further west. The Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas had quite healthy growth, and that was after Nebraska and Kansas had slower growth in the 1890-1900 decade. Missouri was also quite low in 1900 to 1910, but may have been kept positive by St. Louis and Kansas City. The Census report also suggested Canada (Prairie Provinces) as a destination.

It was apparently a good time for farm prices as $$$/acreage increased throughout the US, and the peak appreciation was in Iowa (127%). This might indicate farmers had begun to buy up neighbor's land and there was competition (demand) for something which supply was essentially constant ("they aren't making any more land"). In 1909 the homestead allotment was increased to 320 acres but this was further west. The person who had homesteaded your upland acreage might have found it non-viable and sold out and moved to Nebraska or the Dakotas.

Madison County has 16 townships of 36 square miles each. Subdivided into 160-acre homesteads that works out to 2304 farm families. Even with larger families that might only work out to 15,000 or so. Even if a family had 5 or 6 children, they would be pushed off the farm when they reached adulthood (which might be considered much earlier than now, given the lack of education). The youngest son might take over the farm for his aging father or widowed mother, and some of the daughters would be married to neighbors. Everyone else would have to find work in Winterset, or Des Moines, perhaps on a railroad, or migrate out of the state.

The Homestead Act was passed in 1862. Settlement of Iowa had begun before the Civil War, but not by much. Land could be bought from the US Government but the minimum lot size had been reduced to 40 acres to make it available for starter farms. Being able to buy 160 acres for sweat equity would have a great incentive to move to Iowa after the war. The Homestead Act required building improvements and living on the land for five years to perfect the claim. Perhaps the hiccup in the 1880s was somehow tied to this. It did not show up in Dallas and Adair which were still being filled in during this time. Settlement in the extreme northwestern part of the state was still going on into the 20th Century.

Anyhow that smaller lot size may have led to denser settlement in the Old Northwest, and also made the farms closer to subsistence farming. Before railroads it would be hard to transport your produce to market. But when industrialization came there would be a larger labor supply in Ohio. Iowa was settled after development of mechanical reapers and threshers, which would permit harvesting of larger farms by fewer persons.

Madison County probably was held back by lack of an east-west railroad through that tier of counties.

[jimrtex]

I have fairly deep roots in IA - my father's family is from the Cedar Rapids area and I spent two years of my youth living in Des Moines. The stalled growth doesn't seem to be related to industry. IA has maintained significant facilities in food production and distribution, heavy manufacturing (John Deere makes its tractors in Waterloo/Cedar Falls), and even aerospace (Collins, formerly Rockwell, employs almost 10 K in Cedar Rapids). Newton IA lost the Maytag plant, but now hosts wind turbine manufacturing that employs about as many people. Des Moines has long had a good share of insurance firms with major offices.

What I think is missing is that neither Des Moines nor Cedar Rapids became a major transportation hub for Midwestern agribusiness. Those roles fell to Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Omaha. It seems that a junction between railroads and a major river or Great Lake was necessary. Davenport and the Quad Cities might have fit the bill, but historically the main rail lines crossed the Mississippi north of the Quad Cities at Clinton or to the south at Burlington. Even today the Amtrak stop for Des Moines is in Osceola, 40 miles to the south.

How much Czech (Bohemian) culture is there in Cedar Rapids? I was noticing in the 1900 Census there was a bit of a cluster in Linn, Johnson, and Tama counties? Kolaches? Runzas?

This map suggests that Davenport-Rock Island was sort of a mini-hub for Iowa, but the CRIP never reached the Pacific, even though the bridge between Rock Island and Davenport was the first over the Mississippi.

https://tile.loc.gov/image-services/iiif/service:gmd:gmd415:g4151:g4151p:rr002190/full/pct:12.5/0/default.jpg

Amtrak likely selected the BNSF (CBQ) route across Iowa since they want the train to go through the Rockies (the westbound train leaves Denver in the AM so it is daylight). If efficiency were an issue, I'd take the UP route and make the Des Moines stop in Ames.

Incidentally, I-80 from Chicago to San Francisco is 20 hours faster (30h45m vs 51h05m) and about 10% shorter (2127 mi v. 2440 mil) than the train.

When a hyperloop is built from San Francisco to New York, would it use a great-circle route at 0 elevation? It happens that Chicago is quite close to the SF-NYC great circle, so it could be connected by a vertical shaft of around 600 feet.

Before Amtrak there were competing routes between Chicago and San Francisco. The northern route through IA or the CNW later the Milwaukee Road connected to the UP at Omaha (the UP only acquired the track to Chicago in 1995) and used the Overland Route through Cheyenne similar to that of I-80 connecting finally to the SP at Ogden. The southern route through IA was operated by the CB&Q to Denver connecting to the D&RGW, and finally via the WP past Salt Lake City. There was a third Chicago to San Francisco passenger route on the AT&SF that went south through New Mexico, but didn't include IA.

Amtrak only kept one of those three after it was created. I suspect that the California Zephyr was picked because of the value of passengers going to and from Denver over any city on the other routes. I had the pleasure of taking the Cal Zephyr in 2018 between Naperville IL and Glenwood Springs CA. It may be a longer route, but the scenery west of Denver was spectacular, and better than anything I could see on I-80.

The route through Colorado is actually quite new. The original route was from Pueblo through the Royal Gorge and over Tennessee Pass and eventually to Salt Lake City.

A direct route west from Denver went over Rollins Pass at nearly 12,000 feet, and even then only reached Craig. The Moffat Tunnel was completed in 1928 and the the Dotsero Cutoff connecting to the D&RGW mainline was completed in 1934. The D&RGW later acquired the D&SL. Apparently, the California Zephyr was never competitive with the City of San Francisco over the Union Pacific tracks through Wyoming, so it was always billed as more of a tourist route.

Incidentally, there is a quite current effort to reopen the Tennessee Pass line. It is not clear what the interest is, I don't think that there would be traffic for transcontinental freight - you are either going through Wyoming or New Mexico or Montana depending on whether you are coming from Oakland, Los Angeles, Seattle, or Portland. But it could be used as commuter rail from Salida and Leadville into Vail - which is more astonishing to me than commuting from Stockton into San Jose or Poconos into NYC.

The Rock Island tracks across Iowa are now operated by the Iowa Interstate Railroad, which also goes as far east as Bureau, IL with trackage rights into Chicago.

This talks about reviving rail service (a lot of blue sky thinking).

https://iowadot.gov/iowainmotion/railplan/2017/IowaSRP2017_Ch3.pdf

The first stage would be Chicago to Moline, but you probably know about that since the state of Illinois is involved. The next extension would be to Iowa City - with some sort of connector service to Cedar Rapids; and then Des Moines, and eventually Council Bluffs. One clear limitation is that freight trains are currently limited to 40 MPH, and dual trackage or at least sidings would be needed to be added.

This is conceivably the reason that the BNSF was chosen over the UP from Chicago to Omaha. It might have been easier for Amtrack to get trackage rights. Though it could also be that the BNSF route is more scenic - because it is clearly crookeder, and there might be the traditional aspect for nostalgia reasons even if you are mainly interested in the Rockies.

The above article did mention a Madison County Express excursion train that ran from Chicago to Earlham, IA, but I could not find anything since the late 1990s. Apparently it was for tours of ancestral Torie homestead, as well as the covered bridges. Another version was the Madison County Limited which went to Osceola. That could have just been a special version of the California Zephyr.

Incidentally, the Southwest Chief crosses the Mississippi at Fort Madison, so it nicks the Iowa Panhandle/Nubbin(?). Does the eastern protrusion of Iowa have a popular name? I've always thought of it as a nose.